October 26, 2009
THE HOLDOUT(S).... CNN reported late yesterday what has been widely suspected for nearly a week: "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is poised to proceed with plans to introduce a Senate health care bill with a public health insurance option that would allow states to opt out." A final decision is expected today.
And watching the Sunday morning shows, it was hard to miss the sense among leading Democrats that this might just come together. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) of Missouri described herself as "pretty optimistic" and said Reid's intended plan will likely get done "this year." Sen. Russ Feingold (D) of Wisconsin said he is "frankly getting excited that we may have some momentum for something very positive." Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) of New York said on "Meet the Press" that the leadership is "close" to 60 votes -- though, it should be noted, that would be 60 votes for cloture, not the legislation itself.
How close is "close"? Probably about a vote or two shy of the threshold. At this point, Sen. Ben Nelson (D) of Nebraska, the caucus' most conservative member, may be the most serious impediment to reform. CNN's John King asked Nelson whether he's committed to the Democratic leadership that he'll let health care reform come up for an up-or-down vote. Nelson replied:
"I've made no promise. I can't decide about the procedural vote until I see the underlying bill. It would be, I think, reckless to say I'll support the procedure without knowing what the underlying bill consists of. And it's not put together yet. It's a draft -- it will be a draft bill sometime next week, submitted the Congressional Budget Office for the review of the cost."
In other words, Nelson is certainly considering the possibility of siding with Republicans and denying the Senate a chance to vote on the bill.
Asked about possible compromises, Nelson added, "Well, I certainly am not excited about a public option where states would opt out of a robust, as they call it, robust government-run insurance plan. I'll take a look at the one where states could opt in if they make the decision themselves."
Not exactly a vote of confidence for the likely Democratic plan.
I don't doubt that the reports about Dems being close to 60 are true, but no one should doubt the fact that getting from, say, 58 to 60 will be exceedingly difficult given the conservative Democratic holdouts. Based on what I'm hearing, the two biggest hurdles on cloture are likely to be Nelson and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) of Arkansas. Stay tuned.
—Steve Benen 9:25 AM
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Dems may not like it, but democracy means the rule of the majority, and if they are two votes short then obamacare is over.
Posted by: Al on October 26, 2009 at 9:37 AM | PERMALINK
It's feeding time at the zoo: once a Senator knows a bill will pass the only question is "what's in it for me?"
The Blue Dogs will come on board if they get their payoff, that is the way the game is played. Progressives may want real health care reform, but Blue Dogs want money, or some other graft. Does anyone honestly think these folk are ideologues? No way. Some, like Mary Landrieu, don't even understand the issues involved in the debate.
Frankly, that's OK with me. As long as the legislation is worth passing, the bribe is worth paying.
Posted by: Joesbrain on October 26, 2009 at 9:39 AM | PERMALINK
That's interesting because I thought Bayh and Nelson were the holdouts not Lincoln.
Posted by: Kris on October 26, 2009 at 9:51 AM | PERMALINK
Al has said some funny things on these boards, but this has to be the funniest.
So, if two Democrats switch sides, and the bill gets 58 "yes" votes, with 42 "no" votes, thus killing the bill, that is OK by Al because "democracy means the rule of the majority".
Thanks Al, that was a good one!
Posted by: Joesbrain on October 26, 2009 at 9:52 AM | PERMALINK
From the Unabridged Dictionary of RepublicanSpeak:
Majority - When democrats control the senate, a majority is one more than the number of democrat senators. When republicans control the senate, a majority is equal to 50+1.
Posted by: AngryOldVet on October 26, 2009 at 9:54 AM | PERMALINK
another week
another puppet show...
Posted by: neill on October 26, 2009 at 9:56 AM | PERMALINK
Any Democratic Senator who fails to vote for cloture should immediately be stripped of all chairmanships. Otherwise just what the hell does it even mean to have a "Democratic caucus"?
Posted by: Steve LaBonne on October 26, 2009 at 9:56 AM | PERMALINK
Steve LaBonne is absolutely correct! Any "Democratic" senator who does not support this, the most important legislation since Medicare should be dishonorably dismissed from the Caucus and lost any seniority. And Al should crawl back in the hole from whence he came.
Posted by: capatalist pig on October 26, 2009 at 10:52 AM | PERMALINK
related fake news
SUB-ROSA NEWS
Some of the News
That may be True
OBAMA APPOINTS OLYMPIA SNOWE AS HEALTH CZAR
In recognition of Senator Snowe's immense contribution to health care reform legislation,, President Obama has named her to the new office of National Health Care Director. In a written statement, the President noted the Senator's long study and deep knowledge of health care issues facing the nation. In addition, her work in the Senate has made the reform bill truly bi-partisan.
White House press spokesman Robert Gibbs denied rumors that appointment to this office was the price demanded for her vote. He noted that it was clear that her strong efforts in support of real reform were made because history had called.
homer www.altara.blogspot.com
Posted by: altara on October 26, 2009 at 10:56 AM | PERMALINK
I'm actually fine with them voting against the bill itself, if they feel they need to for political cover, as long as we still have 50 + Biden. But against cloture? Nuke 'em.
Posted by: Steve LaBonne on October 26, 2009 at 10:57 AM | PERMALINK
Claire McCasgill does not care about her taxpayers who vote. She only cares about preserving her campaign funds from insurance companies that rape and pillage tax payers with increased rates and co pays; military contractors that practice sodomy. She doesn't consider decreasing the budget for the war mongering department (DOD) to help pay for Health care.She would prefer to follow the politically amoral by refusing Medical insuracnce for the very taxpayers she represents/
Posted by: mjohnston on October 26, 2009 at 10:58 AM | PERMALINK
From the day, literally, that this opt out plan was floated I absolutely loved it both for policy and political reasons. I have no idea why some Democrats and progressives haven't really hit a couple of the obvious high points but its worth repeating again.
An opt out clause in a public option allows Harry Reid to push a stronger version of the bill. The reason being is that Dem Senators like Conrad and Baucus who claim their state would be harmed by a public option would Medicare rates could simply be told "Well then your state can opt out". This is a reasonable stance and they still would get the benefit of EVERYTHING else in the bill which they claim to like. That is how you get to cloture for all but the most bought off Democrats. When it gets down to people like Nelson then you go public and challenge him to explain why he would object to a public option if he likes the rest of the bill and his state could opt out. Bam strong public option with medicare rates and cloture.
But even for people who are concerning about the politics of a public option the opt out is PERFECT. Its almost the mirror image situation as the Stimulus bill earlier this year but better. With the stimulus bill ALL these Republicans were against it calling it socialist and voting against the bill. And since that time they have all been promoting all the things the bill has done to help their constitutents except usually they fail to mention that the big checks they are handing out come from the stimulus bill or the big road project came from the stimulus bill. And in the end after all the moaning and groaning not one single Republican Governor turned down a substantial portion of their fair share.
With the public option there will be no way for such subterfuge. Republican Governors will have to publicly and overtly reject the public option over the will of the majority of their constituents or face the backlash from their base. Talk about a rock and a hard place. In the end I suspect the overwhelming majority will go with their constituents over their political base and keep the public option. For the few who consider rejecting it the backlash will be swift and strong. Talk about an implosion waiting to happen.
I seriously don't understand why more people aren't talking up the opt out. And I am not talking in a guarded "we will see" kinda way. But in a very hopeful, this can be what we have been waiting for, kinda way. I realize that the notion came to be out of happenstance but many times some of the best plans do.
Just sayin
Posted by: sgwhiteinfla on October 26, 2009 at 11:36 AM | PERMALINK
If there is to be an op-out of PO for States, it at least should have to be by public referendum and not Legislative vote - force opponents to get the public vote if they can.
Posted by: Neil B ♪ ♫ on October 26, 2009 at 12:04 PM | PERMALINK
SGW - Because we don't know what the "ot-out" will be.
Remember when they got us all to talk up a public option by floating a huge plan that would be open to all Americans and provide quality healthcare and then turned around and offered a plan open to 3% of the population that wouldn't likely cover much of anything at all?
Thats why people aren't talking ip "Opt-out". The limosuine liberals will just pull another bait-and-switch, and suddenly states will be opting out of having a state-wide public option (not a federal one) with gigantic co-pays.
Posted by: soullite on October 26, 2009 at 12:45 PM | PERMALINK