"Time will tell"? The polls close in about 80 hours.

We'll know pretty damned quickly.

Plus, Steve, it will be spun as a win by the wingnuts, regardless. If they win the election, they'll pontificate that it's a sign of the times. If they lose, they'll howl that the party requires more ideological purity.

I'm running out of popcorn.

The hour of peril is upon us. We encourage everyone in New York's 23rd to stand up and vote for Doug Hoffman your "concerned neighbor" (see Thompson ad)who you should overlook as not being your "actual neighbor". In addition, Dick Armey from Texas is right. What's more important, your local jobs, education, and infrastructure, or sending a message to the Hitler/Stalin/Mao regime in Washington? I think real Americans know the answer to that!

Thank you and remember to vote Hoffman on Wednesday!

Nice job NARAL! A timely and prescient endorsement.

Won't she still be on the ballot? If so, the republican vote could still split, although to a lesser degree.

"Indeed, there may well be some moderate Republicans who'll hesitate before rewarding the far-right candidate who wants to drive moderates from the party."

There ARE NO "moderate Republicans" left. That's why the Republican party is at 25% self-identification in the latest polling.

The only people left are the wing-nuts. They will break for Hoffman by better than 5 to 1.

Wing-nuts will howl that this is a massive "victory." I'm not sure why since that district is the type no Democrat could normally win, and if a Democrat won this time they would certainly be unseated in 2012.

But, it's a sign of wing-nuttia disciplining their party, which is something Democrats need to do a lot more of. If Democrats were as eager to primary their representatives for minor heresies as the right-wingers are, our Members would think a LOT harder before betraying us on major legislation.

Remember, it's a turnout election, more a matter of which minority of the overall electorate is more motivated.

There ARE NO "moderate Republicans" left.

The closest thing to them may be New York Republicans, however.

Hoffman'll win, but not by as much as his people think he's going to.

"a district the Republican Party has held since the Civil War."

A time when Frederick Douglass lived in Upstate NY and supported Republican candidates with his oratory.

Score one for Palin?

Since nobody seems to understand the point: a turnout election means that the winner is going to be the one who most efficiently identifies their voters and most effectively gets 'em to the polls.

Turnout elections are infamous for contradicting polls, because polls depend on folks answering the phone, which is considerably easier (and more passive) than actually getting out to vote.

Hoffman's support, particularly the precipitous drop in Scozzafava's support over the past month, is all media-driven. He has no deep roots in the community, nobody is used to voting for him, and while the local Republican party apparatus might work for him, especially if they're paid, it's not like they've ever shot the breeze with him at a local diner.

In other words, Hoffman's most committed voters will be harder to identify (many of 'em first-time voters, in fact), and as a practical matter his campaign has no experience turning 'em out.

So the key is the ground game -- whether the unions (particularly the SEIU and teachers) can turn out more of their smaller ideological base than Hoffman can, with his media campaign.

There's a strong chance of cold showers upstate on Tuesday. (And the Yankees are likely to lose the Series late Monday night.)

(BTW -- beware a close race, cuz the voting machines haven't been certified yet.)

There ARE NO "moderate Republicans" left. That's why the Republican party is at 25% self-identification in the latest polling.

The only people left are the wing-nuts. They will break for Hoffman by better than 5 to 1.

Uhh...we'll we're only talking about the people who supported Scozzafava, who was a moderate Republican. So presumably, these people AREN'T hardcore wingnuts, or they wouldn't have supported her. And yes, there aren't many moderate Republicans left, and that's why Scozzafava dropped out. And so that makes it far less likely that they'll break to Hoffman at the margin you predicted. Again, if they weren't moderates, they would already be supporting Hoffman.

And another issue: One reason why Republican ID is so low is because the most extreme wingnuts don't like Republicans anymore. And that's why Hoffman is getting so much wingnut support, as he's not officially a Republican either. And we see the same thing on the left, with the hardest core lefties rejecting the Democratic Party and Obama. The far ends of the political spectrum reject the two major political parties.

So we really can't assume that the 25% of remaining Republicans are all hardcore wingnuts. That's more likely to be true in the South, but a New York Republican is less likely to be an extremist.

Scozzafava could always play one last "conservative" card trick and suggest her voters pull for the Democrat.

Scozzafava could always play one last "conservative" card trick and suggest her voters pull for the Democrat.
------------------------

That's not a conservative card trick -- that's a Liebermans For Lieberman card trick.

Y'know, Scozzafava's signing-off statement is a pretty good piece of work. Her tone is level, and genuine, and she's candid about her predicament. I don't detect any self-pity. She also closes with a nice (but not grandiose) flourish - the release of her supporters and the hope that party and country will see better days. All in all, a decent and classy exit. What's for voters in that district not to like?!

Whatever happens, the press will report it as a defeat for Obama and a win for Palin.

I think I know how the 'serious journalits' in the village will frame this should Hoffman win: this is good news for John McCain!

And should he win, I hope this gives Palin the push she needs to form a third party for only the extreme right wing fringe to join, and yes, litmus tests will be given.

If only Jacob Javits had had the good sense to bow out while he was dying of cancer instead of drawing moderates away from Liz Holtzman we would never have had to deal with all those years of Al D'Amato.

I found this site on another forum and thought I would share it here. You have to see it to believe it. Its just wild!!! http://bit.ly/3Ygpx0