I called this yesterday, good for you Dede, pay that bullshit forward. I still hate you pink blazer. One foul deed deserves another!

Oh Snap !

"...self-identified Republicans, meaning that the majority of them are likely to back Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman."

Not necessarily. Scozzafava herself is a self-identified Republican who has now backed Owens. A small sample, of course, but Hoffman has been in the race quite a while and the Scozzafava people weren't buying him. If they have to switch parties, why might they not go left as well as right?

It'll all come down to whether Scozzafava supporters care more about ideological purity or having a representative who actually a local and knows the district.

Can either Owen or Hoffman hold the district in the regular election next year?

I'd guess, for what it's worth, that Owens is a pretty conservative Democrat-- so it's likely that the politics here is entirely between different flavors of conservatism. No one should expect liberal policies to be popping up all of a sudden from the forests of upstate New York.

Even if Owens could not hold it next year, a victory now would be worth it for the gnashing of teeth and the grunts of rage from the Pubbie Right, not to mention the slack-jawed look of amazement on Michael Steele's dimwitted face.

During the Democratic primary, pundit hearts were all a flutter over the "split" in the Democratic party caused by Hillary's PUMAs.

Chrith Thillizza was one of the main ones speculating that Hillary backers would jump ship and support McCain/Palin, even after Clinton had endorsed Obama.

Now he thinks Scozzafava supporters will mostly flock to Hoffman, despite her endorsement of Owens.

It makes me wonder why the "analysis" of people like Cillizza and Schmuck Tood always interprets identical fact patterns to be positive for Republicans but negative for Democrats.

Hoffman has Norman Bates written all over him.

Has this guy ever been out of his house before?

As fun as it is to contemplate the further implosion of the GOP, I can't see how this is necessarily good news for liberals; by alienating centrist/conservative voters, liberal Dems are put at a disadvantage... am I mistaken?

LOL -- if her endorsement swings the race to Owens, it'd be just about perfect: Hoffman's guys will be convinced that they were stabbed in the back, AND they won't have an actual victory, much less a new US representative, to crow about.

No success like failure, which is no success at all: this is the fuel for all that wing nut resentment. If they ever actually WON anything -- well, it'd be like the last 8 years, now wouldn't it?

Note how she plays the local issue of Fort Drum, and her relationship with McHugh: it's a turnout election, and I can't see how her endorsement of Owens is going to help Hoffman's ground game -- that's not something Dick Armey or Sarah Palin can help you build: THEY'RE not going to be picking up elderly voters at senior citizen homes and driving 'em to the polls.

jhm - how does a pretty centrist/conservative Democrat like Owens alienate centrist/conservatives in the 23rd?? Sounds like he fits right in - and he certainly doesn't seem to have alienated a pretty conservative Republican like Scozzafava.

all politics is local - except evidently when Cizzilla says that it isn't

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if she was strongarmed out of the race and then turned around and knifed them. I mean come on, with only a few days left in the race she bows out. I guess now she awaits the death threats.

If Hoffman wins it will be evidence that the Republican Party CAN be controlled by its base, however ill-informed and alternate reality driven it may be. And that it CAN win elections. At least the Tea Prty crowd is fired up about something enough to effect change in that Party.

The Democrats on the the other hand will be the seen as the party of the establishment - cozying up to Wall Street and Health Care Lobbyists. And a party that can't even discipline Liebershit isn't going to be driven by its base. And unfortunately we really do not have the equivalent of Talk Radio or Fox News. The so-called liberal media continues to offer fawning interviews to Liebershit and McCain. We have no fricking real organization except for the Web.

Meanwhile every good progressive idea will be watered down into oblivion - the public option being a good example. Watered down by the likes of those who pimp their wives for the Health Care Lobby like Bayh.

The Democratic party has no spine and Obama has little time to show he has one. And so we are watching a replay of the descent of Rome. Hoffman will help the country get there.

It'll all come down to whether Scozzafava supporters care more about ideological purity or having a representative who's actually a local and knows the district.

Exactly right. Plus not all Republicans vote robotically. If they can't stand voting for a Democrat, and don't like their party's nominee, they stay home. As do Democrats for similar reasons.

This will be telling, and much will be made of the outcome no matter what it is. How representative this district is of any national inclination is another question. It isn't.

If Hoffman is a brain dead carpetbagger I wouldn't bet on him.

It is common enough to need leadership on serious issues . When it becomes a matter of the local foot , or in this case the theocratic naval gazers leading the leaders , a case of round and round and round they go where they stop is a bad place to go . That is the only stop on that cults route .

Fox News, within the hour on VT TV, reported that she threw her support to Hoffman. Perhaps what I saw was recorded earlier in the day and aired without editorial review, but nonetheless - completely wrong, if not lying.

I'm impressed with the lady; her resignation yesterday was classy but this endorsement is classier still. Not a word about the nut Hoffman and his cohorts are. Not a word about Hoffman being a carpetbagger. Not a word about Hoffman at all, in fact. Just positive about Owens and you're left to draw your own comparisons and conclusions. The lady may not be the sharpest crayon in the box (that appearance of hers, in front of the Hoffman office, was disastrously stupid) but she's sure long on human decency.

That is either a lady with one powerful grudge or that rarest of beasts - a Republican with integrity!

I'd love to believe the latter, but if I was forced to bet...

No surprise at all Mimi, about Feaux's report. They did protect their right to simply make things up and call it news in court, after all. What's the problem?

the thing about the 23rd dist, or at least the part that i lived in is this: they may be conservative and reflexively Republican, but they hate posers. this is a place where you can't really say you're "from" there, unless your grandparents grew up there. so some fly by night-doesn't know the issues-or care guy who swoops in because he's the "pure" Conservative, isn't going to automatically get all the Republican votes. John McHugh was an institution up there. this guy doesn't even know why Fort Drum is important, or anything to do with the Lake or the River. i hope they'll vote like they realize that.

Get your T-shirts made!

This is where it begins:

           NY-23
And the Party of Palin

Like Bowie and The Alamo...
Like Abe and the Union...
Like Harry ordering the bomb and sleeping that night like a babe.
Like Ron and the Berlin Wall...
Like W and Abu Graib...

I can hear the chants now:

SARAH! SARAH! SARAH!

What els said. And just to mention, when Hillary ran for office, no matter what you thought of her, she did her homework. She traveled the area and around the state and listened to the people about their problems. And she wasn't afraid to be asked the tough questions and she came back to the area often. Many others forget what state they're from, nevermind what district.

...the GOP will shrink further, and continue to move in the wrong direction.

Wouldn't shrinking be the right direction???

Of course Fox news claimed that she endorsed Hoffman, for the same reason that their chryon identified John Ensign, David Vitter, Mark Foley, Mark Sanford and Larry Craig as Democrats. But don't dare say they're not a news channel!

Right-wing Republicans have been cracking out the champagne a little early over this glorious victory that they're sure Hoffman is about to win in the 23rd. They're already calling it an omen of things to come next year, which is why they might wish they had kept quiet if the people of the 23rd district decide between now and Tuesday that between ideological purity and their government paychecks from Fort Drum they really kinda like the latter a lot better.

What would truly make this farse complete would be for renegade conservatives to now accuse Scozzafava of "disloyalty" for endorsing the Democrat!

It's already happened, Ted. The Hoffman campaign is calling her a Turncoat.

I don't know what planet you guys are on. Don't you remember Obama won this district? Obviously there are a lot of Republicans willing to cross party lines. With a crazy like Hoffman running it will be easy. Obviously you guys are not from upstate NY. Remember Gillibrand won her district (which has about a 5 point Republican advantage) by about 20 points.

I am from the district. And I now live within the stench perimeter of the political debacle now known as the Dem Party controlled capital of NYS.

Hoffman matches up most on issues with the guy President Obama just made the Secreyary of the Army, ie.: John McHugh.

Scozzafava matches up very well here in Albany.

Hoffman will pound Owens. Obama base-stealing Chicago ways just got cut down by some dairy farmers, Irish and French-Canadian Catholics, and deer hunters.

Well, I do come from a little farther South, NY-20, but I do know that my neighbors really dislike arrogant folk like Hoffman and tao9. All insults and no real concern for their neighbors.

I think the race is a toss up, which is great for the Democrats, since McHugh won 65-35 last time and the Republicans have a natural advantage. I say even if Hoffman wins, it's a disaster for the Republicans in the long run, for they're losing their hold on a traditionally Republican district.

Obama base-stealing Chicago ways just got cut down by some dairy farmers, Irish and French-Canadian Catholics, and deer hunters.

Yes, because there are no farmers, Catholics or deer hunters in Illinois, where Obama got 74% of the vote. That's some logical thinkin' right there.

As an outsider Hoffman probably doesn't appreciate that upstate New York is historically very independent minded. The British suffered an important defeat at Saratoga in the Revolution. Upstate was a major center of radical abolitionist activity leading up to the Civil War and it was the cradle of Mormonism as well as the woman's rights movement. The first US woman's rights convention was in Seneca Falls in 1848. Many independent thinkers lived in upstate, including Susan B. Anthony, Elizabeth Cady Stanton, Frederick Douglass, William Lloyd Garrison. Lots of very vocal environmentalists live in and around Adirondack Park, the heart of NY-23. What's Hoffman's position on climate change again?

If Hoffman wins he won't be getting much sleep for a long time.

If the Palin wing of the GOP claims victory in NY-23 this could be the GOP's Afghanistan.

"We are anticipating a much more GOP friendly electorate than the other two polls. Siena found Obama's favorability in the district at 59%. Research 2000 had it at 50%. So far we find Obama's approval rating with likely voters at 39%. We're finding an electorate that voted 50-43 for John McCain in comparison to last fall's narrow Obama victory in the district. That drop off in Democratic voters is consistent with what we're finding in much of our 2009 polling but obviously we won't know if we were right or not until Tuesday." http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/ny-23.html

You folks don't know one thing about NY-23 -- other than to insult its citizens as tea-****ers.

39%!

tao9 (did you know that 9 was an unlucky number, BTW?), @22:25,

The word "bagger" is not obscene -- those guys that load your groceries are called "baggers", for example -- and doesn't need to be obscured by asterisks. OTOH, nobody has ever suggested that y'all actually **** tea (or *not yet*; by and by, you may have no other choice left to you, if you continue on your ugly path). IOW, you're overreacting, dahlink.

Vis the direction of the chips falling after Dede's endorsement, it reminds me of an old Polish saying: "the wisewoman (witch) predicted two outcomes: could go either this way or that". We have three people here, all claiming to be in the area, with two (just because tao says something twice, doesn't make him two people) different (and opposing) predictions.

In the meantime, Dede's own campaign manager is throwing her -- and her preferences - onto the dung heap:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/in-ny-23-bombshell-republican-scozzafava-endorses-democrat-owens.php

Sorry... When you read the link, scroll down to the Late Update for the guy's statement.

I'm not from the area, but it seems to me that Owens has a real shot now that the Dede has thrown her support to him.

1. NY Republicans are not the same as Southern Republicans. Dede was a Republican and obviously a moderate one. In such a solidly blue state, just being a moderate is enough for people to consider you a conservative.

2. The district went for Obama. I think the same factors that turned off voters from Sarah Palin will be the same factors that turn off voters from this Hoffman guy. If he does win it will be because he's not a Democrat, not because HE won it on the merits. If this district has been voting solidly for Republicans for over 100 years, it's going to be hard to break that. He will be winning solely on historical patterns, not because of his ideas or because it is a referendum on Obama. The conservative party is closer in alignment to the Republican Party and in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by a two to one margin, it has a natural advantage. But I think those folks, other than the twenty percent true believers, who take a closer look at this guy will not find him very appealing. Educated voters who favored Dede, and who favor moderate conservativism will not be impressed by this guy.

I think the Republicans are in a lose lose situation. If they win, they lose because this will be seen as a vindication of party purity in the vein of Palin & Rush. That will not go over well in mainstream America. If they lose, they've lost a seat that was theirs to lose.

OTOH, another Bachmanite, Know Nothing, frothing at the mouth looney in congress doesn't help anyone very much.

exlibra:

Are you drunk?

As Dede S. is still on the ballot, one wonders how many votes she will garner even though she's dropped out. And how big voter turnout will be. One way or the other, the results will be analyzed and over-analyzed for months, I'll bet (until we will want to scream).

depends record ecosystems companies 2009

And, starting softly, in the far distance, so softly, barely audible in the breeze, but slowly, ever so slowly, rising in volume and revealed in awful clarity, drawing closer and steadily closer...

"The sun on the meadow is summery warm.
The stag in the forest runs free.
But gather together to greet the storm.
Tomorrow belongs to me.

"The branch of the linden is leafy and
Green,
The Rhine gives its gold to the sea.
But somewhere a glory awaits unseen.
Tomorrow belongs to me.

"The babe in his cradle is closing his eyes
The blossom embraces the bee.
But soon, says a whisper;
'Arise, arise,
Tomorrow belongs to me'

"Oh Fatherland, Fatherland,
Show us the sign
Your children have waited to see.
The morning will come
When the world is mine.
Tomorrow belongs to me!"

Pity, really; it's got such a lovely melody...

affected unfccc non external trading values precipitation

The Extreme Left vs. Extreme Right mirror imaging is absurd.
The Extreme Left is all over the place in total dissonance, while the Extreme Right knows how to march in lockstep to a simple tune.

"Pity, really; it's got such a lovely melody..."

All we need is Joel Grey smirking.

Hoffman will win and both sides will try to spin this to their advantage, but the truth of the matter will be one more Michelle Bachmann in Congress. I don't see anything good for the Democrats in this. All it will prove is that the Sarah Palin?Glen BEck faction of the Republican Party can win. It will mean that moderate and main-stream Republican voters are willing to fall in line with the extreme fringe. That's not good news.

What is Hoffman's position on drilling in Allegany State Park? WE NEED TO KNOW NOW! Can he be trusted to protect Adirondack park and New York watershed areas near the Marcellus Shale? THIS IS NOT JUST ABOUT CELEBRATORY ENDORSEMENTS! IS PALIN'S ENDORSEMENT DESIGNED TO GAIN ANOTHER CONGRESSIONAL ALLY FOR DRILLING ANWR?

See http://www.oleantimesherald.com/articles/2009/10/07/news/doc4aca68dd6f907209629857.txt

Monday, October 5, 2009 6:31 PM EDT

Groups seek state intervention to prevent drilling

By Rick Miller
Olean Times Herald

SCIENCE LAKE - A coalition of groups called Friends of Allegany are calling on state officials to buy the Allegany State Park mineral rights on 2,800 acres that a drilling company wants to drill for oil and natural gas.

Members of the Friends of Allegany groups, including the Adirondack Mountain Club and the Sierra Club, visited a drilling site on the Pennsylvania side of the state park’s southern border Saturday.

It was located about 50 yards from the New York-Pennsylvania border on land leased from the Bradford Water Authority. Much of the runoff from the area would go into the park. U.S. Energy Development Corp., an Amherst-based company, recently told state park officials it wanted to begin exercising its mineral rights in an adjacent 2,800-acre area in Allegany State Park.

Blue Girl:

Thanks for the link. It certainly provides another window into the right wing worldview doesn't it, one in which conservative ideology is seen as almost a religion among adherents.

So how do all the GOP RINOs such as Gingrich who backed this ACORN loving, SEIU supporting, card check demanding leftist feel now about their appeals to "party loyalty" since their chosen one obviously has none????

if you read the local article, then the comments that go with it you will see that there is no hope for a democrat. those people are NUTS.

ajt sez: "if you read the local article, then the comments that go with it you will see that there is no hope for a democrat. those people are NUTS."

yes, because we all know that commenters on a newspaper blog are a completely accurate representation of the electorate at large. stellar analysis, that.