November 4, 2009
TRIGGER TALK LINGERS.... By any reasonable measure, the "trigger" public-option compromise should be long gone. When Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid submitted a plan for CBO scoring, he didn't even bother to run the numbers on a trigger plan.
As Ezra recently explained, "One of the reasons I assumed Olympia Snowe's trigger proposal was dead was, well, it looked dead. It was just lying there, unmoving. There were no meetings between Snowe and Schumer, or Snowe and Rockefeller, to try and craft a stronger trigger that would be acceptable to more liberal members. There were no modified proposals coming out of Snowe's office, or statements from her spokespeople indicating a willingness to entertain changes."
Moderate Republicans didn't like the idea. Conservative Republicans didn't like the idea. Liberal Democrats hated the idea. For reasons that don't make any sense, Joe Lieberman suggested a trigger was overly ambitious.
And yet, here we are.
Moderate Senate Democrats uncomfortable with Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-Nev.) health care reform plans are coalescing around Sen. Olympia Snowe and are looking to the centrist Maine Republican to provide them political cover at home and viable policy alternatives on the floor.
Reid's bill remains largely under wraps pending a Congressional Budget Office analysis. But moderate Democrats -- particularly those representing conservative-leaning states -- are nervous about what they do know. They are pushing to replace Reid's public insurance option proposal, which includes an opt-out provision for the states, with Snowe's plan for a public option "trigger" -- preferably before any floor debate on health care reform begins.
On Tuesday, moderate Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) made clear she supports Snowe's proposal for a public insurance option that would only be triggered in the future if private insurers failed to adequately lower health premiums. Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), a leading centrist, confirmed that the moderates were continuing to meet with Snowe to strategize a way forward that brings the Republican on board and softens Reid's bill.
"There's a possibility that that could occur," Nelson said. "Right now, we don't know what the actual version of the plan is because it hasn't come back from CBO. ... My expectation is that it probably doesn't have enough to get 60 votes to get off the floor if it gets on the floor."
Added Sen. Tom Carper (Del.), another leading centrist: "I think we as Democrats will rue the day if we don't find a thoughtful way to make sure that Sen. Snowe's central premise, perhaps modified ... finds a home in the legislation that we finally vote on."
The Washington Post added today, "Landrieu said she is working with Snowe to build support for the trigger alternative."
It's still the wrong way to go.
—Steve Benen 3:10 PM
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Triggers never work. How about giving the insurance industry until 2013 to make good or the previously approved public option becomes law. If thing get way better in coverage and costs, congress can always stop the public option. It's kind of an opt out for the government and it guarantees that something will happen.
Posted by: richard wang on November 4, 2009 at 3:14 PM | PERMALINK
It is true that my house is on fire, has now caught all the neighbors' houses on fire, and has already caused untold death and damage. The flames also seem to be rapidly growing in intensity. But before I totally overreact and call the fire department, I'm going to give the conflagration three years to shape up and put itself out.
Posted by: shortstop on November 4, 2009 at 3:24 PM | PERMALINK
Great ! Now all we need is Roy Rogers and Dale Evans.
Posted by: rbe1 on November 4, 2009 at 3:24 PM | PERMALINK
Yep... but not the way you think
"I think we as Democrats will rue the day...
Absolutely.
I voted yesterday in Tucson:
With 98.6 percent of the polling places and about two-thirds of the early ballots counted, Democrat incumbent Karen Uhlich maintains a slim 593-vote lead on Republican challenger Ben Buehler-Garcia in Ward 3, while Republican challenger Steve Kozachik holds an 1,199-vote advantage on Democrat incumbent Nina Trasoff in Ward 6.
But I won't show up for the Democratic party in 2010 if they feed me a trigger. You hear that Gabby Giffords? You need my vote. Desperately. Without the public option, I will watch you die on the vine.
Posted by: koreyel on November 4, 2009 at 3:25 PM | PERMALINK
If they try to sell a trigger as HCR I am immediately leaving the Democratic Party, an affiliation I've maintained for over 30 years.
Posted by: bdop4 on November 4, 2009 at 3:29 PM | PERMALINK
Well the dems finally have a leader and it's a woman..a republican woman. Who would have guessed?
Posted by: cdw on November 4, 2009 at 3:34 PM | PERMALINK
CDW, I'd wager most Democrats won't be following Olympia Snowe.
At this point, I'd say that it's unlikely any bill will be passed.
Posted by: soullite on November 4, 2009 at 3:36 PM | PERMALINK
if soullite is correct, and that very well may be the case - particularly if Reid slows this process down, then we should probably all just vote Republican. they may govern really really poorly (see Bush, G.W.) but at least they can sorta-kinda run things while the Dems can't run anything at all. the Repubs will have successfully outflanked the President, large Democratic majorities, and clear public opinion on the centerpiece of the Democratic agenda and one of the central issues debated in the 2008 Democratic primary campaign. it takes a special kind of stupid to screw this up as badly as the Democrats have done.
Posted by: zeitgeist on November 4, 2009 at 3:42 PM | PERMALINK
Well, bdop4, unless you are worth millions/billions of dollars, do you really think they care? There has to be something more that can be done to get the attention of dems or pubs than a threat to leave the party. They wouldn't notice unless you ignited a bomb on your exit, and included a clear message telling why the bomb. No, until people they know start to suffer from mal-healthcare, there will be no reform. Americans don't understand subtle. They only understand personal tragedy. Notice how much Katrina changed the political landscape? No wealthy white people got hurt, and probably profited, so life goes on.
I'd like to say what I think would work, but it might get me in trouble...maybe I am as chicken as those I criticize.
Posted by: st john on November 4, 2009 at 3:46 PM | PERMALINK
...before I totally overreact and call the fire department, I'm going to give the conflagration three years to shape up and put itself out.
Now that's change I can believe in.
Mind you, I continue to believe that putting out your fire immediately is the best course of action. Call it, the "fierce urgency of now." But please understand that it is merely "a sliver" of my overall plan to help you.
So I'm not going to insist on it.
Posted by: Econobuzz on November 4, 2009 at 4:13 PM | PERMALINK
...before I totally overreact and call the fire department, I'm going to give the conflagration three years to shape up and put itself out.
now, i happen to think we should put your fire out with water, but others think we should try gasoline, and still others lime jello. so before we start to put out your fire, we are going to send all three ideas to the CBO for scoring. It may be a couple of weeks. Then we'll have to go on vacation, but we'll take up your fire as soon as we get back.
understand, however, that we still may not be able to put out your fire just yet because if the firefighters work, we have to pay them, and some of that pay could, in theory, be used to pay for abortions. and we can't have any public money going for legal abortions. so we have to hash that out before we put out your fire.
and we've noticed that Marler and theAmericanist aren't so keen on you. it is an election year, and we do have to be concerned with re-election. so way may have to focus on things that make them happy before put out your fire, just to make sure we don't lose their votes. having consensus before we put out your fire seems the prudent, moderate course for us to take.
Then, once all of that is done, of course we'd love to help you with your fire. But can you send us a check today for whatever you can afford to help attack the menace of fires - $50, $100, $500 or more?
Posted by: zeitgeist on November 4, 2009 at 4:21 PM | PERMALINK
(and this would all be much more humorous if it weren't the tragic truth that you can substitute "cancer" for "fire" in the above posts and have it be 100% true for real, suffering Americans watching the HCR debate.)
Posted by: zeitgeist on November 4, 2009 at 4:25 PM | PERMALINK
All one has to do in order to figure out the best plan for all Americans is throw out a proposal and see what happens to health care insurance stock prices. If they go up, it's bad for us; if it goes down, it might work.
Posted by: Hannah on November 4, 2009 at 4:30 PM | PERMALINK
I thought Joe LIEberman already pulled the trigger?
Posted by: Trollopoly on November 4, 2009 at 4:31 PM | PERMALINK
One word: reconciliation.
Posted by: Chris on November 4, 2009 at 4:36 PM | PERMALINK
Chris, do you know much about the actual reconciliation process, its limitations, the outsized and arbitrary role of the parliamentarian, and the extreme reversibility of legislation that goes through this process?
Posted by: Katherine of Aragon Ballroom on November 4, 2009 at 4:43 PM | PERMALINK
I don't like the trigger either - too often it has to come back to Congress for budget authorization and appropriation, and it never gets triggered.
However, that doesn't mean a trigger has to work exactly like that. Case in point (and someone correct me if I'm wrong), the law authorizing work at Yucca Mountain, NV.
For years, Clinton kept Yucca Mountain from going into operatin. Previous legislation had been authorized, and it contained a trigger. The Energy Secretary recommended storage, Bush would approve. Nevada could override Bush's authorization (a state overriding the President!), but then if both houses of Congress approved a Resolution overriding Nevada's veto by a bare majority, Yucca would be approved.
But when the Democrats barely held the Senate in 2002 (by 1 vote), it was thought that Majority Leader Daschle could keep it coming from the floor. Nope - it was required that any Senator could bring it up for a floor vote, it couldn't be debated nor filibustered.
Daschle tried to keep it out, but a few defecting Democrats, along with most of the Republicans passed the bill.
Granted, Yucca Mountain is still tied up in the Courts, but that has nothing to do with Congress. It's past their hands.
If something was similar - if the trigger could be enacted by the Executive Branch only, or a non-filibusterable resolution through Congress, that might be BARELY acceptable.
Cause you know the insurance companies wouldn't make the benchmarks anyways. Not even close.
Posted by: Chris on November 4, 2009 at 5:31 PM | PERMALINK