Alternatively, or in addition, The Obama people should promise her any embassy she wants, or top federal position she wnts, if she loses in AK next time around. That's the way the republicans have always done it. They take care of their own, cradle to grave. Asking Lincoln to have a heart as well as a spine at this point is risky. But asking her what color her favorite bribe would be--that's easy.

aimai

"So why not go big? Why not announce that too many Arkansas families are being screwed right now by a dysfunctional health care system..."

Why not? Check with Wal-Mart headquarters in Benton, or perhaps the Tyson family. If they give the go-ahead, she'll vote for reform.

Why do I doubt there is even a remote chance this is even considered? Oh yeah, 'cause politicians are pathetic, money-grubbing whores. She'll sell her soul for $1000 from BC/BS.

All politicians are cowards, except the fanatics. Lincoln is already planning her K Street career. She will torpedo the Obama initiatives, then happily retire to wealth.

Also it doesn't matter. You're not going to be killed or anything if you lose. Sometimes people need to commit political suicide to do the right thing.

If she goes down fighting *against* the reform then, if she's not reelected, she's likely to get a consolation prize in the form of a job with insurance companies, lobbyist firms, etc. If she fights *for* the people and loses the reelection, she's got nothing. Aimai's idea (that the WH should promise her a job if she loses the reelection) is intriguing but I'm not sure how likely it is. Lincoln doesn't strike me as the sharpest crayon in the box and, say what you will about Obama's picks, they're all pretty brainy. Lincoln might have fitted in, perfectly, in *Bush's* administration.

Ambassador Lincoln has a nice ring to it, doesn't it Blanche?

Two quick points:

1. Isn't Obama telling Lincoln, et al, exactly this? (If not, why not?)

2. My understanding is that Wal-Mart _supports_ health care reform. Am I wrong on that?

yeah, the ambassador/bribe thingie, that's an option.

i dont think it is a matter of spine and heart.

it's more puppet strings...once yer a puppet for the corporate machine, you don't have heart r spine... you dont need 'em. so that's blanche's dilemma, as it is the vast horde in washington...

and once yer a puppet.. you dont all of a sudden wake up one morning and be teddy kennedy (unless there is a director, a make-up artist, etc., and technocolorâ„¢ involved)

DC wonk--As soon as I hit the publish button, I had a second thought that Wal-Mart, may in fact "support" HCR. Not sure how firm their support really is. My point was a bit different; that behind all the gobbledygook they provide for public consumption, the business interests in a senator's home state are the most reliable indicator of the senator's eventual support or non-support of a policy. If Wal-Mart or Tyson provide her cover, Senator Lincoln will have the necessary maneuverability on HCR.

I guess Blanch Lincoln doesn't care about anyone in Arkansas. But she only cares about her re-election. THIS I WOULD CALL SELFISH ON HER PART. MAYBE SHE DOESN'T CARE IF THE HEALTH CARE REFORM DOESN'T PASS. SHE PROBABLY HAS A JOB LINED UP AFTER SHE IS DEFEATED IN THE NEXT ELECTION FOR SENATOR. And the re-election for her is in doubt. She is afraid of the GOP, but she bends over backwards supporting their issues. MAYBE SHE IS A REPUBLICAN USING THE DEMOCRATS TO KEEP HER IN THE SENATE. Maybe in the long run she should recoginize that the GOP is just using her to use her vote against the Democratic Health Care Reform. The GOP will vote against anything that the Democrats and President Obama tries to legislate for the American people.

Oh, I don't know - maybe, because a majority of the public wants it?

If Blanche Lincoln can produce reliable data that suggests more Arkansans are against healthcare reform than support it, she should vote against it. And if any politician is going to make a decision for the good of his or her constituents when it is against their wishes, don't go pretending you're "just folks" afterward.

WalMart would support it so they don't catch so much shit for not providing it for their employees. They don't really qualify for the small business 8% payroll tax so not sure what they would be required to do. As far as Blanche coming out big and bold so that the poor people in Arkansas love her, they probably won't vote for her since that's a demographic that shows up at the polls rarely.

You're absolutely right and I hope someone gets her to read this or puts that thought plan into her ear. Her state is extremely supportive of HC reform though they may be conservative on most other issues...on this they are in dire need. I hope she stands up strong.

Plus I hope she knows that no matter what she does the opposition will be just the same from republicans...though the Kerry comparison is inappropriate because she is voting for the right of the nation's senators to be able just to vote on the issue.

One idea is that (as Thom Hartmnann stated on his show today)if the HC reform with a public option goes down in flames in the senate (and keep in mind that the PO is just so there will be gov. involvement in the HC industry so it can be expanded later) the senate needs to do this:

Go via the reconciliation process...only budgetary issues can go by this process so senate dems can take Medicare (a budgetary program) and expand it to include people from the age of 1yr old...thereby making it Medicare for all...and it would only need 51 votes to pass.

If only we could get this idea into the ears of our dem senators....we could get Medicare for all right now.

The problem with encouraging Bland Lincoln to be a confident progressive is that her natural posture is defensive and her most natural move is to shift with any prevailing breeze. It's a pity, because she's smarter than that...but one does get in the habit of being called "senator," doesn't one? I think that aimai is a little harsh toward Lincoln, but the comments certainly can be applied to Mike Ross.

Look, Lincoln isn't going to out-conservative the Republican candidates in Arkansas. No matter how she votes on reform, the entire Attack Machine is going after her as some kind of radical leftist. It doesn't matter if it doesn't make sense, and it certainly doesn't matter if she votes with Republicans on the big issues of the day for the next year.

Exactly.

A little assurance that the Party will throw money at her campaign like crazy, and that she'll still be a player if she loses the seat wouldn't hurt, either.

Yglesias is on the money. But the problem is the politicians are only interested in getting reelected. The right choice for them is the choice that gets them reelected, not the moral choice that is right in the long run and that would put them on the right side of history.

How sad is it that becoming an advocate for fixing the broken system is a counter-intuitive strategy?

So why not go big? Why not announce that too many Arkansas families are being screwed right now by a dysfunctional health care system and Blanche Lincoln has decided to do something about it?

Jeebus, Steve...

Because that would require moral courage. Has Lincoln ever demonstrated that she has any?

We will see how this strategy works for Grayson. I think it will but there is zero chance Lincoln will try it. If Grayson wins comfortably, this case will be much easier made next cycle.

Jay Rockefeller is from a red state and he seems to have no problem supporting the most progressive legislation possible....

In other words, show some confidence.

I have lots of conservative friends who would have supported John Edwards in 2004 because they ate up that populist stuff. It's better to put people on the defensive on some issues...

Well aware of this, the Republican National Committee is already making the obvious threat: if you vote for cloture and then vote against the bill, we'll turn you into John Kerry ("voted for it before voted against it").

And furthermore, if she votes against cloture, they'll tie her to the "Obama/Pelosi takeover" anyway, because she's a Democrat. It's amazing to me that there's any cowardly rep in Washington who doesn't understand this, considering the number of Democrats who actively worked with the GOP to support Bush's agenda and were still top targets of the Republicans at election time because they were in conservative districts they thought the could win.

They need it tattooed on their foreheads they day they're sworn in: "There is nothing you can say or do that will make you safe from Republican attacks." If they could just internalize that as a starting point, I think we'd see an improvement in strategy.

I think it might be a bit late for Sen Lincoln to go full metal populist. With Sen Kyl she proposed a $250 billion amendment to cut estate taxes for the heirs of multimillion dollar estates http://tinyurl.com/d48y34.

However, she might take your advice. She has always relied on the kindness of strangers.

Or, following her other namesake, she might grow a beard.

Personally, I think going for a legacy is her best bet.

"Show some confidence"?

What part of they're Democrats don't understand?

Arkansas may be turning right, but the Republican bench there is thin and growing thinner. Blanche may (and should) face a Primary challenge from a real Democrat. She's been overdue for such a challenge for a long time. But you needn't worry about an Ambassadorship for Blanche. Her future is assured. She is already on the payroll as a lobbyist for Arkansas Blue Cross.

Maybe Blanche could realize that healthcare reform isn't all about her, it's about them (her constituents.)

She'll have a better chance of re-election proving she has the stones to be a leader than she will by being the most scared candidate. Voters can smell weakness and who wants to be lead by a weakling?

I imagine she's just like Mary Landrieu -- spends all her time screwing over her friends, and then acts surprised when the people who hate her still hate her. But her friends are supposed to hold their noses and continue to support her.

I'm through with that BS.

Mr. Benen, I believe the advice you offer Senator Lincoln could be offered to the Democratic caucus in general as well as most of the progressive blogosphere. If you read your comments section, and I'm sure you read at least a sampling of them, then you have to know that virtually all of the complaints about Democratic reform efforts consisted of the view that it is far too timid and conservative. Did this stop Republicans from characterizing Democrats as socialists, or even fascists? Even if a bill similar to the House bill passes the Senate, very few of us familiar with the details will be terribly excited about it. Many of those who are excited will learn in the coming years that there was not in fact anything to be excited about. Apparently there are some, like yourself, who believe that this bill is a step in the right direction regardless of its shortcomings, and that anything better would have been politically impossible; and maybe, hopefully, you are right. But it is difficult to feel anything but cynical about the Democratic party right now.

Jay Rockefeller is from a red state and he seems to have no problem supporting the most progressive legislation possible.... -- Chris, @17:34

That's because, due to the mountaintop "mining" and other despicable practices going on in his state, every single one of his constituents needs *major* medical help and only about 20 of them can afford it. Let's see how progressive he is on cap-'n'-trade...

The Republican argument that voting for cloture is the same as voting for the bill itself is as pernicious as anything they have argued this term, and that's saying something. They are trying to institutionalize the filibuster super-majority for each and every piece of legislation (a rarely-used tactic until the Obama presidency), now that they know they won't be in the majority in the Senate for a very long time.

Democrats should not have compromised in the nominations fight of 2005, but should have let Dick Cheney blow up the filibuster. A couple of wingnut judges (the Dems in the Gang of 14 caved on most of them anyway) would have been a small price to pay to be able to pass legislation now.

Arkansas' Senator Dale Bumpers was such an advocate for the people at the bottom of the ladder, and he was a very successful politician in that state.

if she votes against cloture, they'll tie her to the "Obama/Pelosi takeover" anyway, because she's a Democrat. It's amazing to me that there's any cowardly rep in Washington who doesn't understand this, considering the number of Democrats who actively worked with the GOP to support Bush's agenda and were still top targets of 优文网the Republicans at election time because they were in conservative districts they thought the could win.

Steve:

You are absolutely right in identifying the best political strategy. Being on the right side of an issue is always the right thing to do - regardless of the perceived politics. I think voters tend to reward those who take intelligent principled stands over those who take politically convenient stands. And as you said, she's unlikely to win going right and it's better to go down standing than go down crawling.

Thank you, Mr Benen for writing out the obvious for the benefit of the oblivious.