The Washington Monthly

November 17, 2009

THE NATURE OF THE OPPOSITION.... A new CNN poll shows 46% of Americans support the health care reform proposal pending in Congress, while 49% are against it. The numbers are nearly identical to the new Washington Post/ABC News poll, which found 48% support, 49% opposition.

But there's an underlying problem with the question -- nearly all of these polls fail to tell us why Americans like or dislike the proposal. It's similar to poll questions asking whether the public approves of President Obama's handling of the issue, and seeing the number drop below 50%. Is that because Americans want him to compromise more or less? Is he fighting too hard or not hard enough for a public option? Is he going to fast or too slow? The number is inherently ambiguous.

To its credit, the CNN poll went a little further than most on this point.

Americans are split over the health care bill which narrowly passed the House of Representatives earlier this month, according to a new national poll -- and the survey suggests the opposition to the legislation isn't coming only from the right. [...]
"Roughly one in three Americans opposes the House bill because it is too liberal, but one in 10 oppose the bill because it is not liberal enough," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "That may indicate that a majority opposes the details in the bill, but also that a majority may approve of the overall approach taken by House Democrats and President Obama."

As a result, despite the division over the House bill, a majority of Americans would like to see the Senate take up the legislation.

Most of the time, it seems as if the conventional wisdom assumes critics of the reform plan are necessarily on the right. But the CNN poll helps prove otherwise -- 46% support the reform bill, and another 10% would like it if it were more liberal.

Republicans tend to look at these evenly-split polls on health care and assume opponents of the bill are with the GOP. That's clearly not the case.

The same poll, by the way, shows President Obama's approval rating holding steady at 55%, and Democrats leading Republicans on the generic-ballot test by seven points.

—Steve Benen 1:15 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (11)

Comments

wow, cool, groovy...

cnn -- to its god damn credit -- sez there's at least two viewpoints in this country about how shitty the health care reform biz has been carried out...

wowsies!!!

two whole viewpoints -- you know, the right hand and the, uh, other hand...

such depth!!1!!

Posted by: neill on November 17, 2009 at 1:18 PM | PERMALINK

Same thing with Obama's popularity and with Democrats. Since they are not doing as much as their supporters expected, full support simply isn't there.

But that doesn't mean that republicans will succeed even if democrats fail to deliver. The best they can hope for is apathy among democrats and independents.

Assuming that health care passes, the situation will change: the more liberal voters will at least see progress, even if it is limited. And democrats will blame the republicans for stalling.

Posted by: tomj on November 17, 2009 at 1:33 PM | PERMALINK

finally, someone actually asks a poll question correctly and digs down.

Posted by: ga73 on November 17, 2009 at 1:33 PM | PERMALINK

You're absolutely correct: the presumption (based on desire) in the press is that any opposition to details of health care reform must come exclusively from the right.

But the way, that generic ballot: who wants to bet it gets 1/1000th the coverage the Gallup one last week (showing a 4-point GOP lead) did?

Posted by: demtom on November 17, 2009 at 1:36 PM | PERMALINK

Were they asked if they prefer the status quo to the pending legislation? I'm not crazy about any of the bills, but I prefer them over doing nothing. So it depends on how they frame the question.

What I'd really like to see is Medicare extended to age 55. There are a lot of us geezers in danger of losing our jobs and having no shot at buying an affordable policy because of something stupid like high cholesterol, which by itself is inconsequential.

Posted by: Obee on November 17, 2009 at 1:43 PM | PERMALINK

Uh, excuse me but aren't you assuming that the 46% who support the reform bill would keep supporting the bill even if it was modified to be "more liberal" and gain another 10% support? But that ain't necessarily so. If the bill moved left it could pick up support on the left but lose support in the middle. You can't just add 46 and 10 and assume a more liberal bill would have 56% support.

Posted by: SteveH on November 17, 2009 at 2:05 PM | PERMALINK

I'm sure that there are just as many liberals who would oppose any bill that does not have a public option as there are conservatives who would oppose a bill that does.

Posted by: mfw13 on November 17, 2009 at 2:21 PM | PERMALINK

Politcal decisions are difficult when the public isn't fore-square behind you on a matter that true public servants see as a necessary policy. Civil rights, voting rights, even abolition wouldn't pass today because so many people would be against them on nothing but a gut level. That's not how to make policy or move a society forward. Health care reform must pass (assuming it's a good bill) whether the majority of people answering polls agree or not.

Very important note: The vast majority of Americans were against invading Iraq until we did it.

Posted by: stevenz on November 17, 2009 at 3:49 PM | PERMALINK

I agree with you but you're not accounting for those who would no longer back the bill if it did become more liberal.

Posted by: Christopher on November 17, 2009 at 4:19 PM | PERMALINK

I think you'll find that the right-wing disinformation campaign has been effective once again, and too many Americans who are too slow-witted or incurious or lazy or rabidly partisan for their own good buy into death panels, having to go to Obama's doctor and pulling the plug on grandma. Why bother to dig for news when the right wing puts it right in your lap like a hot TV dinner?

Posted by: Mark on November 17, 2009 at 9:57 PM | PERMALINK

Funny I was discussing with a friend about this just the other day, we must share the same views. I hope it's ok I added your site to a few of my bookmark lists?

Posted by: reverse phone look up on October 1, 2010 at 4:24 PM | PERMALINK