Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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November 17, 2009

REPEAL IN '13? NOT GONNA HAPPEN.... From time to time, congressional Republicans will concede that health care reform, in one form or another, is likely to become law sometime soon. They'll usually follow it up, however, by assuring the GOP base that Republicans will work to repeal the reform package just as soon as they're in the majority again -- whenever that might be.

National Journal's Ron Brownstein notes in his latest piece that we're likely to hear even more of this.

Some senior House Republicans have already pledged to repeal any health care bill if they regain the majority. And many GOP challengers in 2010 will surely echo them. But with Obama holding a veto pen, Republicans probably couldn't mount a real threat unless they won the White House in 2012. One top adviser to a possible 2012 GOP presidential contender says that, given the GOP base's hostility to the reform plan and independents' unease, it is likely that "most potential [Republican] candidates will argue for wholesale replacement with their own version of health care reform."

There are some good pieces on this from Matt, Brendan, and Ezra, but I'd just add that I'm not especially worried about the prospects of repeal. Indeed, for all the GOP bluster, I find it hard to believe even the most wild-eyed Republican seriously believes repeal is a possibility.

For one thing, if anyone thinks the year-long effort to pass reform was difficult, just imagine trying to un-pass it. Are Republicans going to craft a new health care plan that can pass the House, get 60 votes in the Senate, and gain approval from some other, future president? They shouldn't count on it.

For another, any Republican "replacement" health care plan would invariably want to curtail efforts to cover the uninsured -- which is exactly why it's a political impossibility. There will be precious few politicians willing to proudly proclaim to tens of millions of Americans in 2012, "Know that health coverage you're about to get for you and your family? I'm about to take it away."

It's why conservatives have spent the year fighting, lying, and screaming -- they know how limited their options will be going forward. Republicans might be able to gut a public option, undermine consumer protections, or make it harder on middle-class families to afford coverage, but those efforts would be difficult, and bring their own political penalties.

Once this bill is done, changes will be incremental and a major overhaul will be all but impossible anytime soon.

Steve Benen 4:35 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (17)
 
Comments

That's a good point. Imagine if we had universal health care now and the difficulty the right would have arguing to replace it with the current system. It would be a no go.

Posted by: Dale on November 17, 2009 at 4:41 PM | PERMALINK

Republican physics is more predictable than a cue ball carom...

Benen: There will be precious few politicians willing to proudly proclaim to tens of millions of Americans in 2012, "Know that health coverage you're about to get for you and your family? I'm about to take it away."

Exactly. In fact it will be just the opposite.
Someday they will take credit for a bill they did everything to stop.
And just like with Medicare, they will pretend to be its savior...

Posted by: koreyel on November 17, 2009 at 4:45 PM | PERMALINK

But the fact that they're talking about it is a very good thing. Talk about how they'll be able to get rid of it (however delusional) can only undermine the energy for blocking it in the first place.

Posted by: Redshift on November 17, 2009 at 4:48 PM | PERMALINK

To make it even more difficult, they would actually have to come up with a plan to campaign on. I think it would be hard to campaign on a platform that says we want to take away your health care but we do not have a plan to replace it with!

Posted by: mat1492 on November 17, 2009 at 4:48 PM | PERMALINK

If The subsidies are too weak (And they are) and people are basically being forced to spend 5-6 thousand dollars a year, then yes. This will be repealed. Probably after the Democrats lose terribly come 2014.

If Social Security had taken 3/4ths of the average American's pay check and then paid out 100 dollars a month, it wouldn't exist right now. It would have been dismantled a long time ago. Its the programs themselves that make them untouchable, not the idea of a program. All Healthcare reform will be in 2013 is an idea. One that is very likely to be viewed as a bad one.

Posted by: soullite on November 17, 2009 at 4:48 PM | PERMALINK

Whydo republicans hate the Troops so?

Posted by: stevio on November 17, 2009 at 5:02 PM | PERMALINK

In the first place, the Republicans wouldn't run on taking health care away from people, they'd claim they were "reforming" the system and lie spectacularly about the effect of "reform," which would be to take health care away from people. And their media allies would let them get away with it.

In the second place, why would you think that the Republicans give a damn about the uninsured? Remember, per the ideology of the ruling Republican clique, people who can't afford health insurance are losers and parasites. No activist Republican cares about scum like that, and certainly they won't be looking for their votes.

Posted by: Midland on November 17, 2009 at 5:28 PM | PERMALINK

au contraire you stoopid merde-fer-brains Repugnants...

le public option is the nez de chameau for single payer universal health care...

Posted by: neill on November 17, 2009 at 5:32 PM | PERMALINK

worse than repealing it--defund it (ok, so that's not a word, but you know what I mean)

Posted by: golack on November 17, 2009 at 6:29 PM | PERMALINK

Are Republicans going to craft a new health care plan that can pass the House, get 60 votes in the Senate, and gain approval from some other, future president?

When have Republicans ever needed 60 votes to pass legislation?

Posted by: Jinchi on November 17, 2009 at 6:34 PM | PERMALINK

Jinchi is right. Who thinks the Republicans are going to give a damn whether or not they have 60 votes in the Senate? If they have the majority (read 50 votes and the VP) that's all they'll need. And they'll scream bloody murder or "up or down vote" or will of the people, if you think you can block them with a filibuster. It would be nice if just once the Democrats recognized that.

Posted by: kitsune on November 17, 2009 at 6:57 PM | PERMALINK

golack @ 6:29 has been paying attention to GOP history. If you don't like a program that requires funding, simply red line in budget appropriations. If you don't like a law, simply instruct the DoJ to ignore infractions. Why would anyone think it necessary to repeal HCR when you can scuttle it with a thousand cuts?

Posted by: Chopin on November 17, 2009 at 7:20 PM | PERMALINK

Once this bill is done, changes will be incremental and a major overhaul will be all but impossible anytime soon.

That sounding ominous enough with the Democrat concession filled conservative handjob version of the current bill..

(Stupid amendment included)..


Posted by: Trollopoly on November 17, 2009 at 8:02 PM | PERMALINK

You mean like Republicans were going to instate a federal gay marriage ban and reverse Roe V Wade when they were in power to appease their base? Only the base will be duped by this line of repeal rhetoric and I doubt the religious right would buy into it. Just another talking point with no intention what-so-ever for follow through. Next.

Posted by: grs on November 17, 2009 at 10:18 PM | PERMALINK

This seems to be typical Republican "strategy." Talk a lot about doing something when you get to power or doing something when X happens to get everyone fired up and then pray that people forget and the press doesn't bother to call you on it when the time comes.

Posted by: ET on November 18, 2009 at 8:55 AM | PERMALINK

Republicans COULD repeal it IF they retake the White House in 2012 (ain't gonna happen).

Remember that Democrats aren't like Republicans. At least EIGHT TO TEN Democratic Senators will go along with any Republican President and the right-wing. Just as the did under Bush! They are really "moderate Republicans" who can't run as Republicans because that party has eliminated it's moderate wing.

That means that if Republicans ever got to 52 votes in the Senate, they would be able to pick up 8 Democrats desperate to look "bi-partisan" by repealing the health-care reform and get to 60.

Also many Democrats would cave-in rather than fight to the end the way Republicans are doing on this.

Never underestimate the stupidity and corruption of the "moderates".

Posted by: Cugel on November 18, 2009 at 9:49 AM | PERMALINK

Wait a minute, let's look at how many benefit VS how many lose. This bill will do little to nothing to control costs, CMS estimates that the PO will cost slightly MORE than private insurance (there is some competition we can believe in!). The costs of covering the uninsured and very sick will roll onto those that have insurance today, increasing costs without control. We will likely still see insurance companies making out like bankers, and you know how popular that bailout has been.

Who benefits? Those with pre-existings who are uninsured today. Who pays more? Virtually everyone else. And what about the lower middle class, already crushed by debt and unemployment, now saddled with a mandate to buy expensive insurance with high deductibles that may not cover routine needs like sick kids.

I see about 4X as many people hurt by this as benefit. And Americans haven't been in a generous mood since St Ronnie....It could easily be repealed, the campaign ads virtually write themselves "Why are your tax dollars helping Wellpoint CEO Dickwad make $20million? Why did your costs go up so that unworthy (fill in focus-group tested target group) slackers benefit?"

Posted by: marku on November 18, 2009 at 10:31 AM | PERMALINK




 

 
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