Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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November 18, 2009

GETTING THE BALL ROLLING AGAIN.... When the House of Representatives passed health care reform two weeks ago, it was heralded as a landmark achievement and sent a loud signal that this once-in-a-generation opportunity really was coming together. All eyes immediately turned to the Senate.

Where the momentum quickly came to a halt. We've had two weeks of a reform bill in limbo, waiting for the CBO, putting out fires, and generally just sitting around waiting for progress.

Today, the Senate leadership intends to get the ball rolling again.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will unveil and discuss his health care bill to Democrats at a special 5 pm caucus meeting tonight, sources say. Reid hopes to brief the caucus before the bill is publicly unveiled, and that could happen late tonight. A CBO analysis of that legislation is expected somewhat earlier in the day, and despite some last minute road bumps, Reid is reportedly very pleased with the numbers he's seeing.

Reid may give the public 72 hours to review the bill before holding a cloture vote on a motion to proceed this weekend, though he may call for that vote slightly earlier.

Everything I'm hearing is entirely consistent with this. As I understand it, Reid has personally seen the numbers from the Congressional Budget Office, and is very pleased with the results. He'll talk to the Democratic caucus about the CBO score at the 5 p.m. (ET) meeting, and some top-line numbers will likely be available, though the full CBO report may not be publicly released until tomorrow.

After the meeting with Senate Dems, Reid will likely host some kind of event on the Hill, talking up the bill and the CBO score. (Depending on the length of the caucus meeting, Reid may or may not wrap up in time for the evening newscasts.)

The White House's efforts are also picking up. Vice President Biden will be on the Hill today, meeting with Reid and working on a whip strategy. Tom Daschle and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar will reportedly be part of Biden's lobbying efforts among Senate Democrats.

The first procedural vote -- a motion to proceed, which will effectively begin the formal debate -- is by no means an easy one. Every Republican is expected to filibuster the vote -- they not only oppose reform, they oppose debating reform -- meaning that every member of the Democratic caucus will have to at least be willing to take this initial step.

That vote may come as early as Friday, though Saturday is probably more likely.

Steve Benen 10:10 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (16)
 
Comments

I pray that I'm wrong, but I suspect that this bill won't survive cloture. Nelson, Lincoln, and one or two others continue to hedge. Let's hope that Reid has Plan B in place -- reconciliation.

Posted by: Chris on November 18, 2009 at 10:20 AM | PERMALINK

In a world where the Senate Majority Leader was a clever man - he would try to silence any debate about reconciliation before bringing it up.

Maybe Reid is much more clever than we all can imagine...

Posted by: Vokoban on November 18, 2009 at 10:25 AM | PERMALINK

Actually Vokoban, if I were Reid, I would give ConservaDems two choices -- vote for cloture so that Dems can pass a strong public option, or vote against cloture forcing Dems to pass an even stronger public option via reconciliation.

Posted by: Chris on November 18, 2009 at 10:32 AM | PERMALINK

"Actually Vokoban, if I were Reid, I would give ConservaDems two choices -- vote for cloture so that Dems can pass a strong public option, or vote against cloture forcing Dems to pass an even stronger public option via reconciliation."

Right, Chris. But would you do this in public?

Posted by: Vokoban on November 18, 2009 at 10:39 AM | PERMALINK

I hear critics of HCR, like the former CBO lady IIRC on the latest stop-reform ad, say it adds so much more to the Fed debt. I wasn't aware we were going to borrow so much money for this, I thought it was to be almost entirely paid with fees, some new taxes etc. (And we'd have to pay someone for HC anyway.) So what is all this about "debt" coming from? How legit is this characterization? REM some critics call any earmarked future payments "debt" because we have to pay it out, even though it will be raised revenue and is not "borrowed" from lenders. (And even though of course, a similar amount will be paid out regardless of how definitively we now assert it will be paid then.) Isn't this a common distortion?

Posted by: Neil B ♪ on November 18, 2009 at 10:57 AM | PERMALINK

forcing Dems to pass an even stronger public option via reconciliation.

"Even stronger"?

You keep demonstrating that you don't understand the reconciliation process and refuse to learn anything about it.

Posted by: katherine of aragon ballroom on November 18, 2009 at 11:22 AM | PERMALINK

Steve, are you saying that you expect even Olympia Snowe to join a filibuster against even starting the debate?

Posted by: Joe Buck on November 18, 2009 at 11:47 AM | PERMALINK

Lets see: Women under 50, Seniors over 65, Young folks, Small businesses, the Middle Class, and the ECONOMY will all be SCREWED if Obama/Pelosi/Reid get their Health Care Reform Bill passed. Women under 50 will be denied life saving mammograms via the government run rationing board who cares more about “cost effectiveness“ than saving peoples lives. Senior over 65 will have their Medicare cut by 500 billion which will result in devastating cuts to their services. Young folks will be FORCED to buy health insurance they can't afford at twice the cost it would be prior to government run Health Care Reform. Small businesses will be FORCED to pay for health care insurance they can't afford which will mean more layoffs. The Middle Class Health Care Insurance Premiums will all go up by 50% according to some studies. The US economy will collapse as taxes and deficit spending skyrockets as a result of all the big government spending programs like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and on top of that the biggest spending program of all, government run health care, all go bankrupt.

Posted by: James on November 18, 2009 at 11:55 AM | PERMALINK

katherine of aragon ballroom: "You keep demonstrating that you don't understand the reconciliation process and refuse to learn anything about it."

Perhaps you should try supporting your false assertions rather than just vomiting on your keyboard.

Posted by: Chris on November 18, 2009 at 12:02 PM | PERMALINK

James, James, James, it's even worse than that. We're also planning smallpox epidemics -- no treatment, of course, which we'll justify via the death panels -- for you and your friends in the GOP internment camps now being built.

In fact, if I were you, I'd get behind the plans for Thomson Correctional Center pronto, because every bed filled by a suspected terrorist is one less spot in which we can hold a brave political dissident and freedom fighter such as yourself. Until we raise your taxes and conscript your labor to build more camps, that is.

Posted by: shortstop on November 18, 2009 at 12:03 PM | PERMALINK

James - for one thing, you complain about cost-saving measures in the same breath (hand sweep, whatever) you complain about the cost. Can't have it both ways. And why would premiums go up unless the government *fails* to properly control the process, instead of because of a hands-off approach?

Posted by: n e i l b. on November 18, 2009 at 12:17 PM | PERMALINK

well, Chris, spamming half the threads with "One word: reconcilation" without having a good goddamn what you're talking about seems fairly vomitous to me. But, okay, here.

Start educating yourself.

Keep at it.

Posted by: katherine of aragon ballroom on November 18, 2009 at 12:23 PM | PERMALINK

aragon--

Did you even bother to read your own links? They provided no information that isn't already well-known by me and anybody who has been following this issue closely -- if anything they support my case.

Howard Dean, Barak Obama (via Robert Gibbs), and others have indicated that reconciliation is a viable option that should be considered. Nobody is arguing it wouldn't be without hazards. The argument is that the result of reconciliation is likely to be significantly better than the trigger/co-op/opt-in compromise that is likely to come out of the Senate.

You disagree? Then keep wallowing in your proud ignorance while cheering the ConservaDems. I, on the other hand, am a liberal.

Posted by: Chris on November 18, 2009 at 1:27 PM | PERMALINK
Depending on the length of the caucus meeting, Reid may or may not wrap up in time for the evening newscasts.

Sigh. Yet more evidence that Reid is desperately in need of a remedial course in modern politics. Why the hell isn't the meeting scheduled early enough to make sure that the results are the number one evening news story, rather than "the Democrats are having a meeting and arguing about it"?

Posted by: Redshift on November 18, 2009 at 2:09 PM | PERMALINK

Howard Dean, Barak [sic] Obama (via Robert Gibbs), and others have indicated that reconciliation is a viable option that should be considered.

Of course it should be considered. It's just that every time you spam about it, you treat it as a magic pill. It's not, and you rival the opt-out cheerleaders in your insistently blind refusal to consider its costs and limitations.

Nobody is arguing it wouldn't be without hazards.

Good. Then start recognizing that those hazards might include easily overturned legislation, 100s of procedural objections that require 60 votes to overcome, and a hell of a lot more in the end -- including, quite possibly, no public option at all.

I, on the other hand, am a liberal.

Brilliant. I hope you turned your head to a three-quarter profile, gazing soulfully into the middle distance, when you said that.

I'll just say this with a goofy smile and skip your ludicrous self-congratulation: I'm an outright lefty who know that parliamentary procedure sometime trumps one's fondest political desires.

We're probably going to have to use reconciliation. It'll hurt less if we're not willfully stupid about how it's likely to go.

Posted by: katherine of aragon ballroom on November 18, 2009 at 2:54 PM | PERMALINK

Not spam. Advocacy. You're inability to differentiate between the two speaks volumes.

With regard to your "magic pill" and "willfully stupid about how it's likely to go" nonsense, you infer things never said or implied.

Since you agree that reconciliation should be considered, and since you now assert that it might be necessary, then we have nothing more to argue about.

I'm thrilled that you've decided, in fact, not to wallow in your ignorance. Sadly, I can't say the same about your arrogance.

Posted by: Chris on November 18, 2009 at 3:42 PM | PERMALINK
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