The Washington Monthly

November 20, 2009

HEATING UP IN THE SUNSHINE STATE.... In January, when it looked Florida Gov. Charlie Crist would face former state House Speaker Marco Rubio in a Republican Senate primary, a poll showed the governor with a commanding lead, 57% to 4%.

This week, a Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos showed things a little more competitive. Crist now leads Rubio 47% to 37%. A 10-point lead may seem reasonably strong, but the trend should cause some panic on the governor's campaign -- Crist is fading fast and Rubio has excited the right-wing base. This poll is consistent with other recent data pointing in the same direction.

Markos Moulitsas explained:

These trendlines are bleak for Crist, and there's little chance of him surviving. Remember, Rubio hasn't spent a dime on media yet. This is all grassroots driven, and the teabaggers are engaged, angry, and looking for the next Scozzafava. Crist is in their crosshairs, and the governor has been flopping all over the place hoping to stem this growing tide against him, and failing. Note -- 50 percent of Republicans still don't know who Rubio is. The more he raises his name ID, the better he does.

Chris Cillizza added, "That Rubio has made up so much ground without spending any real money on voter contact -- television or radio ads, direct mail etc. -- should be very worrisome to Crist as it seems to suggest considerable softness in his numbers. In other words, the more Republicans look closely at Crist, the less they like what they see."

Markos also tested some hypothetical general election match-ups. If Crist manages to get the GOP nomination, he'll still easily defeat the likely Democratic candidate, Rep. Kendrick Meek. Of course, Crist's chances of winning the primary are growing increasingly remote. What if he runs as an independent against Rubio and Meek? The three-way contest is basically a toss-up.

But here's a twist -- if Crist becomes a Democrat, he's in a stronger position. It prompted Markos to conclude that Crist's "cleanest path to a Senate seat" is "switching parties and making an earnest transition on the issues."

For the record, there hasn't been so much as a hint from Crist about a willingness to switch. On the contrary, he's spent the last several weeks trying in vain to convince Florida Republicans that he's really more conservative than he seems (which, incidentally, is what Arlen Specter did before he realized it was a lost cause and became a Dem). For that matter, it's not at all clear if Florida Democrats would accept Crist with open arms.

But it's fun to ponder, I suppose.

Another angle to consider is what Florida Dems do with this changing landscape. When Crist announced he was running for the Senate, he was largely considered a shoo-in, and high-profile Dems who would have otherwise considered the race decided to take a pass. If Rubio seems likely to get the GOP nod, will the Democratic field grow with the changing circumstances?

Or are we dealing with a dynamic in which the best chance of a Democrat winning the race is for Crist to switch?

And if Crist can't win the primary, and doesn't want to become a Dem, does he really throw the state a curveball and decide he wants to be governor again after all?

—Steve Benen 9:45 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (15)

Comments

Oh, great -- yet another step in the direction of a two-party system in which the two parties are Palin Republicans and Eisenhower Republicans.

Posted by: Steve M. on November 20, 2009 at 9:51 AM | PERMALINK

Or, perhaps, Palin Republicans and McCain Republicans.

Posted by: Steve M. on November 20, 2009 at 9:53 AM | PERMALINK

Turning around and running for Governor would be almost as tough a pivot as changing parties, although I suppose he could say something like, "Due to the depth of the Obama recession, it would be wrong for me to leave office with our Florida recovery not yet completed..."

Posted by: howie on November 20, 2009 at 9:56 AM | PERMALINK

Another angle to consider is what Florida Dems do with this changing landscape.

Boy, Steve, you gave me the cosmic giggles with that sentence!
Then your scrupulous party hackery sure fills the giggly void.

Who, Steve, in your opinion, couldn't just switch to Dim from Repugnant? Not that I might disagree with you. It's just, I get too nauseous to type.

Posted by: neill on November 20, 2009 at 10:01 AM | PERMALINK

As I predicted several months ago, Charlie Crist is not going to the republican party nominee for the senate. Charlie Crist is fading fast and my republican brethren have not yet begun the real fight against him.

Charlie Crist is unacceptable because he failed to embrace and become part of our war against The Chosen One and the democrat party. That he had the effrontery to back Obama's stimulus plan is unacceptable. That he has had the timerity to not be in 100% agreement with Grover Norquist is unconscionable and, for that, my part of the republican party must oppose him.

If Crist does not fully understand his situation and retire from this race, then our brethren will become truly nasty! They have not yet brought into play the fact that he is a homosexual. If necessary, our religious conservatives will slay him over that!

Charlie Crist is finished!!!

Posted by: RepublicanPointOfView on November 20, 2009 at 10:09 AM | PERMALINK

First of all, "RepublicanPointOfView," you are nuts and I thank you for your help in destroying the Republican party.

Secondly, I thought Spector's switch to the Democratic party one of the more spectacular and obvious unprincipled decisions based on his own ambition and nothing else. The last thing we need is another switch and one more conservative Democrat. Maybe Nader was right and there's absolutely no real difference between the parties.

Posted by: winddancer on November 20, 2009 at 10:38 AM | PERMALINK

"57% to 4%."

That is a pretty impressive lead alright.

Did you drop a digit Steve?

Posted by: Lance on November 20, 2009 at 10:43 AM | PERMALINK

You lot need to have some pity on us poor Floridians..after 8 years of Jeb Bush..we got Charlie two face. I hope Rubio gets it because he looks weak against Kendrick Meeks. Grayson is setting the tone for Democrats in Florida. I have been to a couple of fundraisers and town halls and I'm here to tell you he is the real deal. He's got 2 things the rest of the dems don't - BALLS

Posted by: john R on November 20, 2009 at 10:47 AM | PERMALINK

Here's my off-the-wall prediction: if Rubio beats Crist in the primary, Rubio runs for President. I know that the Republican base is not known for supporting Latinos, to say the least, but they could embrace him via the logic of the old racist maxim, "One Of The Good Ones." In a race with no frontrunner, a youthful and archconservative Latino candidate could draw support for the way he might scramble the electoral map, and benefit from good publicity about whether he's "The Republican Obama." I had previously had the same thought about Bobby Jindal, but I think he's made himself ridiculous.

Posted by: FlipYrWhig on November 20, 2009 at 11:15 AM | PERMALINK

Is this some kind of Republican Stealth Campaign to take control of the Democratic Agenda with "former Republican politicians"

No thanks!

Posted by: bcinaz on November 20, 2009 at 11:18 AM | PERMALINK

I'm pretty sure Florida has a "resign to run law" (at least we used to) which requires Charlie to give way to his Lt. Gov. when he officially becomes a candidate. I don't think he could get the nomination after quitting. At least he'd lose the advantage of incumbency.

Posted by: bob on November 20, 2009 at 11:23 AM | PERMALINK

To hell with all that, how about we get behind a true Democrat and progressive, Kendrick Meek? Let Crist fight his own damn battles, I don't want that wishy washy fence straddline jerk any where near the Democratic party. All of our energy should be on promoting Meek and making sure no matter who comes out of that primary, Meek wins the general.

And I can tell you this much, if Rubio continues to make Crist move to the right, and all indications say he will, then by the time that primary is over Meek will win in a landslide. Period

Posted by: sgwhiteinfla on November 20, 2009 at 11:24 AM | PERMALINK

All of this because IRV voting is too complicated?

How about Approval voting?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approval_voting

Posted by: jhm on November 20, 2009 at 11:36 AM | PERMALINK

While I've never met the man personally, Charlie has been (at least until recently) considered a fairly decent guy. It took a lot of guts, and dare I say Principle, to appear with President Obama, and to come out in public support of the stimulus package. Oh, RepPOV? Your Bronze Age hatreds are your own affair, but Mr. Benen and Mr. Moulitsas are onto something here. I can very easily envision Gov. Crist switching parties AND coming out of the closet at the same press conference. A minor wrinkle: he's married to a girl, though I don't know anyone, Rep or Dem who actually took that seriously. I can see the opening statement now:

"after much soul-searching, and many conversations with family (wife smiling supportively over right shoulder) I have decided to leave the Republican Party. Not only are their positions on Health Reform, the economy, and just plain old-fashioned courtesy completely repugnant, but I can not continue to pretend that the party's position on Gay rights doesn't affect me personally..."
You can see where this would go from there. Am I being optimistic? Question to the thread: Would this win support among Dem voters, or be seen as a naked dodge? Charlie is no Obama on the stump, but he's capable of charm when he wants to be...

Posted by: Kordo on November 20, 2009 at 12:04 PM | PERMALINK

All of our energy should be on promoting Meek and making sure no matter who comes out of that primary, Meek wins the general.

Oh, please. There's absolutely no way that Meek beats Crist in the general.

Posted by: John on November 20, 2009 at 12:24 PM | PERMALINK