November 25, 2009
EMPIRICISM ISN'T SUPPOSED TO BE POLITICIZED.... Back during the presidential campaign, Barack Obama offered a spirited defense of empiricism. "The thing I think people should feel confident in is that I'm going to make these judgments not based on some fierce ideological pre-disposition but based on what makes sense," the candidate said. "I'm a big believer in evidence. I'm a big believer in fact."
After years of an administration that boasted of its ability to create its "own reality," Obama's approach -- then and now -- comes as something of a relief.
It's why I was struck by this Victor Davis Hanson column for National Review, which argues that the president has gone to "war against reason." Given that reality suggests the opposite is true, this seemed like an odd argument for a conservative to make.
But to bolster his case, Hanson notes that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has determined the unemployment rate for decades. The problem, as he sees it, is that the White House is now also releasing information on jobs "created or saved" since economic recovery efforts got underway. And that's bad, apparently, because while the job landscape has worsened as a result of the recession Obama inherited, the administration is now also reporting data on jobs that would have been cut were it not for the stimulus.
And how is this evidence of undermining empiricism? I haven't the foggiest idea. Jon Chait tries to make sense of the argument.
Ok. Hanson doesn't say that the Obama administration has suppressed or altered the BLS's calculation of unemployment. He charges it with creating another website that attempts to calculate how many jobs were saved by the stimulus -- a premise that is shared by the major macroeconomic forecasting firms. Hanson seems to further believe that this figure is intended as a substitute for the unemployment level, betraying an inability to grasp the distinction between the current unemployment rate and how many jobs were saved as a result of the stimulus.
How can anybody not understand the difference between these two things? His chain of reasoning is just so wildly illogical you can't even refute it.
If I had a nickel for every time I had that thought after reading something at National Review, I could retire.
On a related note, Jon didn't mention it, but whenever I think of politics and empiricism, I'm reminded of a terrific piece he wrote nearly five years ago on this very subject.
We're accustomed to thinking of liberalism and conservatism as parallel ideologies, with conservatives preferring less government and liberals preferring more. The equivalency breaks down, though, when you consider that liberals never claim that increasing the size of government is an end in itself. Liberals only support larger government if they have some reason to believe that it will lead to material improvement in people's lives. Conservatives also want material improvement in people's lives, of course, but proving that their policies can produce such an outcome is a luxury, not a necessity.
The contrast between economic liberalism and economic conservatism, then, ultimately lies not only in different values or preferences but in different epistemologies. Liberalism is a more deeply pragmatic governing philosophy -- more open to change, more receptive to empiricism, and ultimately better at producing policies that improve the human condition -- than conservatism.
Now, liberalism's pragmatic superiority wouldn't matter to a true ideological conservative any more than news about the medical benefits of pork (to pick an imaginary example) would cause a strictly observant Jew to begin eating ham sandwiches. But, if you have no particular a priori preference about the size of government and care only about tangible outcomes, then liberalism's aversion to dogma makes it superior as a practical governing philosophy.
If there's a "war against reason" underway, Victor Davis Hanson is looking at the wrong culprits.
Stepping back, however, it's more than a little distressing that we've reached the point at which the left and right now have competing understandings of the basic meaning of empiricism. It's not a healthy development.
—Steve Benen 4:35 PM
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VD Hanson is one of the slipperiest sophists out there.
Posted by: JPS on November 25, 2009 at 4:51 PM | PERMALINK
You gotta admit tho, this guy hanson -- like all those other NR venial goofball -- woulda had to be invented by stan lee or somebody, if they hadnt voluntarily stepped forward into the public square.
Posted by: neill on November 25, 2009 at 4:52 PM | PERMALINK
Considering conservatives' belief in their own ability to define reality as is convenient for them, of course they're going to completely redefine "empiricism" as it suits them. The word itself has way too many syllables for the average New Republic reader to know better what people like Hanson are doing.
Posted by: DH Walker on November 25, 2009 at 4:59 PM | PERMALINK
"...chain of reasoning is just so wildly illogical you can't even refute it."
This seems to nail the basic Republican communicative strategy at this time. It applies to any and all subjects at hand from HCR to state dinners, yet they continue to get airplay without serious questions or debate.
Posted by: Capt Kirk on November 25, 2009 at 5:00 PM | PERMALINK
What confuses my poor wittle brain is that the government releases, oh, DOZENS of numbers every month. Unemployment rate, national debt, total employment, Feds fund rate... I just can't keep them all straight.
Posted by: Ken on November 25, 2009 at 5:00 PM | PERMALINK
Lt. Col. Bob Bateman took Hanson apart nicely in a series of posts on Altercation. I got an editorial of his pulled (granted, in a Fresno paper) just by pointing out some of his truth twisting in it.
He overreaches in his hubris.
Posted by: JPS on November 25, 2009 at 5:04 PM | PERMALINK
"The thing I think people should feel confident in is that I'm going to make these judgments not based on some fierce ideological pre-disposition but based on what makes sense"
In context, that's not an admirable statement, because it's just another of Obama's reiterations of a tired old DLC cliche, He's explaining why he's right and progressives are fanatics.
Posted by: John Emerson on November 25, 2009 at 5:08 PM | PERMALINK
There may be a little of the Karl Rove/projection syndrome going on here too. It reminds me of the occasional article in my local paper quoting an opponent of gay marriage claiming that proponents are driven by "emotion" and "illogical arguments." I always think, "welcome to mirror world."
Posted by: noncarborundum on November 25, 2009 at 5:17 PM | PERMALINK
Obama:
"I'm a big believer in evidence. I'm a big believer in fact."
Hansen:
"If we have to rely on fact, we're f*c'd. And, for your information, 'empiricism' means 'empire building'. Not something Obama is good at, either""
Posted by: exlibra on November 25, 2009 at 5:21 PM | PERMALINK
Wow, the National Review is accusing someone else of making dishonest arguments? Talk about the pot calling the kettle a codeword for black.
Posted by: Master Mahan on November 25, 2009 at 5:27 PM | PERMALINK
Is there anyone in the public square today with a legitimate academic background that makes as many seriously stupid arguments as VDH? I mean, it's like whenever the subject of politics comes up, VDH's brain gets taken over by the parasitic twin and lives on his shoulder.
Mike
Posted by: MBunge on November 25, 2009 at 5:28 PM | PERMALINK
The ridiculous thing is that Hanson is a former classics professor with a Ph.D from Stanford -- he's not stupid. But if this is what his standards of critical thinking are, I can see why he's no longer teaching and his erstwhile students are certainly better off for it. This is just embarrassing.
Posted by: jonas on November 25, 2009 at 5:31 PM | PERMALINK
My favorite VDH story goes back to August 2006. He was visiting at Hillsdale College in Michigan, and the weather was rainy with highs in the fifties. Ergo, global warming is a crock! At the time, we in the South were enduring a record heat wave, with weeks of triple-digit highs. I would never conclude from that that global warming is real ["Weather" and "climate" are different, after all], but VDH's "empiricism" seems utterly innocent of any standards for evaluating evidence. As a "historian," he's an embarrassment to my profession.
Posted by: David in Nashville on November 25, 2009 at 6:30 PM | PERMALINK
Victor Davis Hanson teaches at Fresno State, definitely one of the CSU campuses that qualifies as a "cow college." This should give you an idea where he ranks as an "American intellectual," i.e., back in the 10th row.
Posted by: TCinLA on November 25, 2009 at 7:39 PM | PERMALINK
Victor Hanson is loathsome. But Obama's claim to empiricism strikes odd when juxtaposed against his frequent references to his devote theism.
Posted by: shoebeacon on November 25, 2009 at 8:04 PM | PERMALINK
Victor Davis Hanson teaches at Fresno State, definitely one of the CSU campuses that qualifies as a "cow college." This should give you an idea where he ranks as an "American intellectual," i.e., back in the 10th row.
I'm a Classics professor who works in ancient history. I agree with nothing of VDH's politics and find his political commentary dishonest and repugnant. But his scholarship in Greek history is really important. There have always been rumours about job offers from better places -- at least before he decamped to the commentariat -- but the family farm is near Fresno (as I understand it he's the fourth generation on it) and he had some connection to it that he wouldn't break. He also claimed to be committed to Fresno students, who are mostly disadvantaged and whom he wanted to help. This last part, of course, is difficult to square with what one reads in his columns, but I know one of his colleagues at Fresno who insists that it was true. Like everyone, I suppose, VDH is complicated human being. Still, that's a stinker of a column, as most of what he writes outside of Greek history.
Posted by: passerby on November 26, 2009 at 11:15 AM | PERMALINK
Exlibra you are basically full of shit. When you make a statement " empiricism means empire building" why not take the 20 seconds it takes to look up the definition of the word instead of just pulling some inane nonsense directly out of yous ass.
Oxford english dictionary-empiricism/n. the theory that all knowledge is derived from sense experience. Empiricism,which denies a priori concepts.
All this not to be confused with empirical/adj.1. based or acting onobservation or experiment, not on theory.
You sir are a buffoon.
Posted by: Gandalf on November 26, 2009 at 12:06 PM | PERMALINK
EXLIBRA
I apologize with all humility. I was so worked up over the complete nonsense of the statement that I failed to read the context of your post.
Please except my sincere apology.
Posted by: Gandalf on November 26, 2009 at 12:20 PM | PERMALINK
Uh, Gandalf, buddy, pal, whatever: hit the reset button on the irony detector.
Posted by: SqueakyRat on November 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM | PERMALINK
shoebeacon,
Religious beliefs don't necessarily conflict with empiricism. Empiricism is not about discovering ultimate truths, but about a more pragmatic goal of determining cause-effect relationships: If I do X in circumstance Y, then the result will likely be Z. If I observe symptom A, it most likely is caused by disease B. The existence or non-existence of God or heaven is mostly irrelevant to such empirical questions.
Of course, there are some religious beliefs that are subject to empirical tests, such as the belief in the efficacy of prayers, or the belief that disease (or natural disaster) is punishment for sin, or that good fortunate is reward for virtue.
Posted by: Daryl McCullough on November 26, 2009 at 2:22 PM | PERMALINK
passerby: "I'm a Classics professor who works in ancient history. I agree with nothing of VDH's politics and find his political commentary dishonest and repugnant. But his scholarship in Greek history is really important. There have always been rumours about job offers from better places -- at least before he decamped to the commentariat -- but the family farm is near Fresno (as I understand it he's the fourth generation on it) and he had some connection to it that he wouldn't break. He also claimed to be committed to Fresno students, who are mostly disadvantaged and whom he wanted to help. This last part, of course, is difficult to square with what one reads in his columns, but I know one of his colleagues at Fresno who insists that it was true. Like everyone, I suppose, VDH is complicated human being. Still, that's a stinker of a column, as most of what he writes outside of Greek history."
Hanson's public arguments are an unholy combination of brain-dead illogic and massive ignorance. When proven wrong, he doubles down. And this is one public matters where people can see his errors, and under his own name.
Given that he has shown some serious character/intelligence deficits, his work in classics can only be trusted to the point where it has been 100% verified, word by word.
Posted by: Barry on November 26, 2009 at 2:31 PM | PERMALINK
....and of course the Bush administration was giving a respectful nod to empiricism when it tried to get burger-flipping reclassified as a manufacturing job, so the slippage in the manufacturing sector wouldn't seem quite so horrible.
It's simple to make an analysis based on measurable data when you manipulate the data to make it say what you want it to say. That's not what Obama is doing, at all.
Posted by: Mark on November 26, 2009 at 7:41 PM | PERMALINK