The Washington Monthly

December 7, 2009

A CENTER-LEFT MAJORITY ON HEALTH CARE REFORM.... One of the more common talking points from opponents of health care reform lately is the notion that the effort just isn't popular among Americans. It's a little ironic for the right to cling to polls to make their case -- the public option polls extremely well, and they still hate it -- but there's some data that, at face value, suggests the opponents have a point.

A recent USA Today/Gallup poll, for example, showed 49% of respondents oppose the bill, while 44% support it. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll found 49% opposition, and 48% support. The latest CNN poll sound 49% opposition, and 46% support. The results, obviously, are pretty close to one another.

The first instinct of reform proponents to explain this is plausible but frustrating -- opponents outnumber supporters because of an aggressive misinformation campaign, coupled with inept major news outlets which are reluctant to separate fact from fiction.

But there's the underlying problem with the question -- nearly all of these polls fail to tell us why Americans like or dislike the proposal. As we talked about nearly a month ago, some of the critics of the bill are on the left, and their concerns are based on the belief that the legislation is not liberal enough. When one combines supporters of the Democrats' plan with liberal detractors who want more, we find an electorate with fairly progressive views on the issue.

It's a point that's starting to garner more attention. Jon Chait has a new item on this, as does Nate Silver.

Ipsos/McClatchy put out a health care poll two weeks ago. The topline results were nothing special: 34 percent favored "the health care reform proposals presently being discussed", versus 46 percent opposed, and 20 percent undecided. The negative-12 net score is roughly in line with the average of other polls, although the Ipsos poll shows a higher number of undecideds than most others.
Ipsos, however, did something that no other pollster has done. They asked the people who opposed the bill why they opposed it: because they are opposed to health care reform and thought the bill went too far? Or because they support health care reform but thought the bill didn't go far enough?

It turns out that a significant minority of about 25 percent of the people who opposed the plan -- or about 12 of the overall sample -- did so from the left; they thought the plan didn't go far enough.

Now, Nate's mistaken about Ipsos/McClatchy being the first to do this specific breakdown -- a CNN poll did something similar in mid-November -- but the larger point is clearly correct and important.

Too often, the conventional wisdom assumes that critics of the reform plan are necessarily on the right. There's ample evidence to the contrary -- the number of Americans who support the Democrats' proposal or something even more liberal constitutes a majority.

—Steve Benen 4:35 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (7)

Comments

I wish we could see a similar breakdown in approval ratings for Obama. The bloviators all seem to assume that people disapprove of of Obama for being too liberal, but I would wager that a significant -- and increasing -- percentage of people disapprove of Obama for not being liberal enough.

Posted by: American in Exile on December 7, 2009 at 4:43 PM | PERMALINK

Talking heads can say whatever they want.

Health care needs to be reformed in this country, and not just for many of the reasons that we've been swamped with on the airwaves.

People are getting sick. Accidents happen. Genetic mutations occur. Environmental toxins hurt us all. Viruses mutate.
Sh*t happens.

What if some nasty biological event (not necessarily terrorism) were to happen and a national health data-base was the only way of mitigating the mass fatalities that occurred?

Wouldn't we all lament the foot-dragging, obfuscating, fear-of-socialism shrilling, that is preventing real heath care reform?

Oh, yeah, I forgot. I already do lament it!

Posted by: Tom Nicholson on December 7, 2009 at 4:52 PM | PERMALINK

One wonders why the WaPO, CNN, Fox, and other so-called 'news' organizations spend hefty sums on these polls.

Without a dog in the hunt, it appears to be wasted money.

Posted by: DAY on December 7, 2009 at 4:56 PM | PERMALINK

"...some of the critics of the bill are on the left, and their concerns are based on the belief that the legislation isn't liberal enough."

Posted by: NealB on December 7, 2009 at 7:42 PM | PERMALINK

*sigh* You've got a BAD typo in para. 4, line 4. Jeebus, you left out "isn't"!

Posted by: buddy66 on December 7, 2009 at 7:53 PM | PERMALINK

Hmmm, that's still the wrong way to think about it. I think it doesn't go far enough, and I lean right. The Medicare cost cuts may or may not happen, the other cost controls are pretty much gone from the bill.

For many on the right, it's not coverage expansion we care about so much as lowering costs. For those on the left, it's more about coverage expansion.

Something like 80% of Americans support health care reform in principle. But there are many poison pills for voters in the current legislation. Medicare cuts, abortion restrictions or the lack thereof, lack of cost controls, public option or lack thereof.

If Democrats think that passing something just because there's a lot of criticism that it doesn't go far enough will save their hides in November, they are mistaken. Those who actually think it doesn't go far enough who are liberals will stay home in November. Those who think it doesn't go far enough who are on the right will vote against Democrats just like those who think it goes too far.

But I think in your heart you know that, Steve. Otherwise, there would be no reason to get this done by Christmas. You know this thing won't sell during election season. If it was actually popular, you'd WANT election season to motivate the Senate.

Posted by: Adam Herman on December 8, 2009 at 12:35 AM | PERMALINK

Most of these polls purporting to show that health care reform is unpopular in fact show that the public is closely divided -- and that the division between supporters and opponents (for whatever reason the opponents are against it) is within each poll's margin of error. In other words, we have no idea whether the public supports or opposes health care. All we can say with certainty is that it's a close call. And if a significant portion of the opposition thinks the bill isn't liberal enough, then the shorthand description of the polls is flat-out wrong.

Posted by: HB on December 8, 2009 at 1:32 AM | PERMALINK