December 10, 2009
CREATING A STRONG INCENTIVE TO LIE.... About a month ago, CNN conducted a poll and asked respondents, "As you may know, the U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a bill that would make major changes in the country's health care system. Based on what you have heard or read about that bill, do you generally favor it or generally oppose it?" The results were pretty evenly split -- 49% opposed the bill, 46% supported it.
Today, CNN released a new poll, asking about the Senate bill. The results were painful.
"As a result, more than six in 10 say they oppose the Senate health care bill," [CNN Polling Director Keating Holland] said. "Republicans obviously don't like the bill, but two-thirds of independents also say they are against it."
One of the main sticking points, a public option administered by the federal government that would compete with private insurers, wins support from 53 percent of the public.
Now, the poll doesn't reflect the proposed compromise being considered in the Senate, but it's unclear if it would make any difference to the overall results -- the part that's being negotiated is more popular than the bill itself.
It's unclear how many of the 61% of opponents are on the left -- i.e., those who oppose it because it's not liberal enough -- but looking through some of the internals (pdf), it's clear that much of the opposition is the result of the public believing the lies they've been told. For example, a whopping 79% of those CNN polled believe that the federal budget deficit would be even higher if reform passes, despite all the evidence pointing to the exact opposite conclusion. What's more, 85% believe their taxes would go up, which is also clearly not true.
The moral of the story, then, is to lie like crazy during all policy debates. An apprehensive public is likely to believe bogus claims, and the media will simply pass blatant lies along with "he said, she said" reporting. Treating voters like grown-ups will only lead to punishment when tackling the major issues of the day.
For what it's worth, Americans still trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle major changes to the country's health care system, but the gap has all but disappeared -- the Dems' lead is down to three, 43% to 40%. This, despite the child-like absurdities of GOP arguments and tactics throughout the year.
—Steve Benen 1:35 PM
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Thanks, liberal media.
Posted by: Dems lose huge in 2010 on December 10, 2009 at 1:35 PM | PERMALINK
This suggests that public policy is impossible. The best course of action would appear to be ceding all branches of government to the Republicans and await the inevitable catastrophes.
I do not advocate that course. But Democrats are going to have to tell voters, "if you believe that lie, it's on you, and your gullibility." That won't be popular, but it would be true.
Posted by: JMG on December 10, 2009 at 1:39 PM | PERMALINK
We as a country get what we deserve. If the majority is stupid enough to believe these painfully obvious lies spewing from the right wing, then let them face the consequences.
That republicans even are given the time of day, despite the media being their stenographers, speaks volumes about the collective IQ of our country.
8 years of devastating conservative policy led us to the brink of economic catastrophe, and less than a year later the same people who overwhelmingly voted democratic now are actually listening to the very bums they threw out?
The mind reels.
Posted by: citizen_pain on December 10, 2009 at 1:43 PM | PERMALINK
What's more, 85% believe their taxes would go up, which is also clearly not true. Sorry, but they are right. Everyone that has health insurance will be paying more in taxes, unless you heath insurance sucks that is. This is why the unions are against it.
Posted by: Rick on December 10, 2009 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK
The unions are against health care reform? That's news to me. And, I would suspect, to the unions.
Posted by: John on December 10, 2009 at 1:49 PM | PERMALINK
The lying law(hay)makers have figured out how to govern; say whatever you feel like, over and over, then, eventually, the electorate will believe they've been told the truth.
The Democrats still are living in the fantasyland called telling the truth.
I could tell you that the sky is blue because carbon dioxide makes it that way. Do you really want to have grey skies? Then vote Democrat.
I could tell you that Democrats want to control your farts through the health care reform bill coupled with the EPA's new emission rules. If you're a moron (of which we seem to have an endless quantity of these days) you'd believe this lie.
..child-like-absurdities indeed!
Posted by: Tom Nicholson on December 10, 2009 at 1:50 PM | PERMALINK
Nice to see our Weimar strategy is running ahead of schedule. Now, if we could just find a charismatic leader with a mustache to educate the masses on how real Americans were brought to this level of indebtedness to the Chinese because of the gays and Mexicans, we'll be set.
We had hoped Dick Cheney could fill the vacuum, but sadly his half hearted attempts at blaming Obama just aren't up to task. He's getting sooo old.
Posted by: Your Friendly GOP on December 10, 2009 at 1:51 PM | PERMALINK
Your citizens, in general, are the most stupid people on Earth, and the Corporate Media, that itself is only concerned with their own Corporate interest and profits, is one of the greatest enemies that you have.
Posted by: blue on December 10, 2009 at 1:53 PM | PERMALINK
it all must be true...it's a poll...
One thing is clear: the nihilism grows, the citizenry becomes more deluded and infantile. The corporations and the corporate media continue to hope that this means a docile mostly hopeless citizenry, and that it'll continue to mean the best US Congress money can buy. They need it here at the end of capitalism... they need it bad...
i think most polls would show that most people would rather eat corporate shit on their knees for the rest of their lives in order to prevent the collapse of their "way of life" a fear and a possibility presented to them by the corporations and their cronies in the media and in Washington.
and the genie smiles and says "your wish is my command..."
Posted by: neill on December 10, 2009 at 1:54 PM | PERMALINK
I thought the movie "Idiocracy" was a fictional depiction of a time in the distant future. Now I find out that it was a documentary. Man, do I feel like an idiot...
Posted by: Robert Pierce on December 10, 2009 at 1:57 PM | PERMALINK
Everyone that has health insurance will be paying more in taxes ...
And your proof of that is ... where, exactly?
The only tax increases being discussed in conjunction with HCR will apply to the wealthy, and a huge chunk of people are okay with that.
But facts are such pesky things and have such a strong liberal bias ...
Posted by: Mark D on December 10, 2009 at 2:05 PM | PERMALINK
Astonishing, though, the number of politically active people whose reaction to wholesale lies and dishonesty by our political leaders and our major news organization is to BLAME THE VICTIM, the non-political Americans who grew up expecting that their primary sources of information on this topic would give them some rough approximation of the truth on the news of the day.
After all, no one really trusts car dealers, but you expect that the hard specs on a Ford or Toyota are going to be somewhere close to accurate, or at least easily compared to data from other dealers. If every car dealership in town decides to claim that electric cars are a health hazard--which apparently happened back in the early days--we don't attack the citizenry of 1910 for acting on bad info, we blame the car companies.
Rather than flailing about smiting your entire species, why not name names and go after the lying pols and their cronies in the media?
Posted by: Midland on December 10, 2009 at 2:06 PM | PERMALINK
Noam Chomsky has been proven right once again.
Posted by: Harold S. on December 10, 2009 at 2:08 PM | PERMALINK
I thought the movie "Idiocracy" was a fictional depiction of a time in the distant future. Now I find out that it was a documentary. Man, do I feel like an idiot...
Just think how Mike Judge must feel after setting the movie 500 years in the future! Such an optimist, he was.
Posted by: Steve LaBonne on December 10, 2009 at 2:09 PM | PERMALINK
I blame the Democrats for this. Lots of us have the feeling we have been sold out by our elected Democratic representatives. It is up to the elected Democrats to prove the bill is a good bill. The fact that they are delaying implementation for years screams that this is a bad deal.
Democratic message control sucks big time.
Posted by: Ron Byers on December 10, 2009 at 2:10 PM | PERMALINK
I thought the movie "Idiocracy" was a fictional depiction of a time in the distant future. Now I find out that it was a documentary. Man, do I feel like an idiot...
Of course, that's sort of the point.
:)
-=-
Posted by: Bernard HP Gilroy on December 10, 2009 at 2:13 PM | PERMALINK
Come on Steve!
Why have you decided to play the role of the person in charge of cooking up excuses for the Democratic Party's utter incompetence and failure to pass any substantive legislation that its supporters endorse?
The tactics of Republicans have been known for ages. There is nothing new that they have done in the health care debate.
To blame the Republicans for their success in obstructing the legislation that will not benefit their electoral prospects is futile.
The object of your criticism should be the Democratic leaders.
Your constant bickering about how bad the Republicans are makes you look like a hack, utterly loyal to the Democrats irrespective of what they do.
Posted by: gregor on December 10, 2009 at 2:14 PM | PERMALINK
"For example, a whopping 79% of those CNN polled believe that the federal budget deficit would be even higher if reform passes, despite all the evidence pointing to the exact opposite conclusion"
Look, I'm happy to have reform and all, but this line about the bill under consideration not adding to the deficit problem is debatable at best, and probably baldly wishful. If we spend more on Medicaid and Medicare - which is what the bill essentially does - to provide care, we'll be spending more, and the deficit will rise, absent other painful choices to cut spending elsewhere - choices which this bill (and other spending plans) rather pointedly avoids. This isn't hard. Rosy scenarios meant to win good CBO scores are, well, rosy scenarios. I'd feel better if Democrats were less intent on pretending that more government spending is somehow done in a magical way that doesn't mean... more spending. We need the government to spend more on healthcare... or people won't get it. That's the bottom line.
I think the polling reflects the complicated reality and problem around dealing with our healthcare crisis: people want reform, people without insurance (and even many with it) want access to good coverage (hence support for a public plan). But many people do not understand the complex relationship between insurance and costs of care, and are leery of suggestions that either care will get worse, or their ability to get it will somehow be limited (the net result of long time public perceptions that healthcare is "whatever you want, without costing very much"). People working closely on the process have done a poor job of explaining the healthcare issues involved, and there are a lot of assumptions about people "getting it" when many don't. In the absence of explanations, yes, people will be swayed by distorting ads, and opinionated coverage that doesn't illuminate much. But I think it's a mistake to say simply that people are believing lies... when the sense that this is an expensive, and in some ways problematic piece of legislation is reflected in national polls. Blame "the media" if you like... but that's not the only failure here: some rests with the lack of a good, informed, national conversation on healthcare and some rests with, well, a political process that has not yielded a great piece of legislation. If we want a better way to get better legislation... we need people to commit to a better, more informed, more open process. Without that... I think we're getting about what was to be expected all along, both in terms of the legislation, and the public reaction to it.
Posted by: weboy on December 10, 2009 at 2:15 PM | PERMALINK
Classy, guys. Blame the victim. LOSERS!
Progressives SUCK at explaining their policies in ways average citizens can get. Alan Grayson - "Republican health plan: get sick and die!" has the right idea.
Bloodless policy wonkery grabs no one except bloodless wonks. Where's the passion? Other than the President, Grayson and sometimes Howard Dean, who's been putting this debate into context for average Americans? Republicans, that's who.
This just in: LIES WORK! That's why Republicans use them. Progressives have the moral high ground here, but other than Grayson, who is using it?
Posted by: Optimist on December 10, 2009 at 2:21 PM | PERMALINK
Speaking of lies, check this out:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/dec/10/healthcare-senate-enzi-republicans: "They're still crazy liars."
Posted by: neil b on December 10, 2009 at 2:21 PM | PERMALINK
weboy: Rosy scenarios meant to win good CBO scores
Care to explain who's coming up with "rosy scenarios"? Isn't the point of CBO to evaluate scenarios sans rosiness?
Posted by: FlipYrWhig on December 10, 2009 at 2:25 PM | PERMALINK
The unions are against health care reform? That's news to me. And, I would suspect, to the unions. Wrong!! Sanders to introduce amendment stripping 'Cadillac' tax from Senate bill.
The radical righty Sanders?
Union interests have also been hardnosed in their opposition to the tax since their members would largely be subject to it. Their position could pose a problem to many Senate Democrats since union members comprise a powerful portion of their support bases.
Representatives from the AFL-CIO, the Teamsters, the National Education Association and Communications Workers of America appeared alongside Sanders and Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) at the press conference Thursday morning.
Another opponent of the “Cadillac” tax, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), said on Wednesday that he is “anticipating some small adjustments to the excise tax.”
Another righty?
here's a link for some of it.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/12/cwa-commissioned-poll-overwhelming-opposition-to-cadillac-plan-tax-support-for-tax-increase-on-very.php?ref=fpb
Here's another: LABOR STEPS UP PRESSURE ON HEALTH CARE TAXES!
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/12/labor-steps-up-pressure-on-health-care-taxes.php
Posted by: Rick on December 10, 2009 at 2:47 PM | PERMALINK
I blame the Democrats for this. Lots of us have the feeling we have been sold out by our elected Democratic representatives. It is up to the elected Democrats to prove the bill is a good bill. The fact that they are delaying implementation for years screams that this is a bad deal.
When Republicans feel alienated from their party, they find candidates to vote for, like they did with Doug Hoffman in NY023. When Democrats feel alienated, they stay home and sulk instead of voting.
So, yes, please stay home, don't vote, and wonder once again why America has gone down the shitter in the 40 years since liberals decided that not voting was totally the way to get the attention of the Democratic establishment while conservatives were busy getting themselves elected to every school board in the country.
Posted by: Mnemosyne on December 10, 2009 at 3:47 PM | PERMALINK
but this line about the bill under consideration not adding to the deficit problem is debatable at best, and probably baldly wishful.
Um ... since the CBO scored the last bill as SAVING $100+ BILLION off the deficit, and this one has only minor additions to Medicare (and none to Medicaid) it's actually a good bet this one won't add anything, either. That's just basic logic based on the facts presented thus far.
As far as expanding Medicare and paying for it goes, it's simple: Raise the $90K threshold to $250K.
**POOF**
Problem solved.
But I guess some are more worried about rich folks keeping a few hundred more bucks a year than taking care of their fellow citizens.
Posted by: Mark D on December 10, 2009 at 4:20 PM | PERMALINK
Mnemosyne - Hoffman is a horrible example. He was supported by the national GOP wholesale outside of perhaps Newt Gingrich, specifically because they felt that local GOP in NY-23 was straying from the orthodoxy with Scozzafava. It was moderate GOPers there who got alienated because of the need for a 'movement candidate', and responded by voting for Owens.
We don't have those kinds of 'movement candidates', mostly because outside of a precious few, most of our Democrats seem all too willing to cede to the middle when our base wants more stern support of liberal policies. Our 'radical' candidates don't get the kind of support from the national party that Hoffman did, nor other challengers from the right are getting from the GOP. That's entirely the problem.
The left gets stranded because the power structure of Democrats keeps tacking center, especially when the right keeps moving the 'center' further toward the right.
Posted by: Kryptik on December 10, 2009 at 4:23 PM | PERMALINK
Your constant bickering about how bad the Republicans are makes you look like a hack, utterly loyal to the Democrats irrespective of what they do.
And your constant bickering about what Steve posts makes you look like a pathetic loser too lazy or stupid to start your own site.
You know, if someone chose to visit your house, and then proceeded to bitch at you about how you decided to decorate, you'd probably tell them to leave.
Yet here you are, constantly whining like a baby in need of a nap because Steve isn't posting the way you want him to.
Either start your own site, or sod the hell off.
Posted by: Mark D on December 10, 2009 at 4:24 PM | PERMALINK
Mark D
Your Medicare withholding is 1.45% of your wages, without limit. Apparently you are confusing social security with medicare.
Posted by: Ron Byers on December 10, 2009 at 5:06 PM | PERMALINK
Oops. Sorry, Ron. You're correct. Thanks for the catch.
Of course, my point is that given that the upper 1% of tax filers have seen their tax rates slashed since the 60s (from a 91% top marginal rate to 36%), and have seen their worth increase by 1,700% (the middle class just about 20ish%), I see no reason they can't pitch in a bit more since they can afford it.
About 1,000,000 families a year, however, can't afford their doctor bills, and have to file for bankruptcy.
But, for some (not you, necessarily), making sure some rich guy can buy a new Benz is much, much more important than making sure we offer affordable care to our fellow citizens.
Posted by: Mark D on December 10, 2009 at 5:29 PM | PERMALINK
If all you wanted to do was lower the number of uninsured families that go bankrupt due to medical bills you would make the following change:
The lowest negotiated price for a service would apply to all individuals.
Currently the uninsured are charged some excessive rate greater than what is paid by the insured's copy and the insurance company. Since a good portion of uninsured don't pay their medical bills, this higher charge is most likley used to game the medical providers loss margin on taxes.
Concerning the CBO cost analysis. The Sentate bill is specificly set up to work around accurate CBO cost validation. The CBO does a 10 year outlay of costs. The bill start charging on year 1 and start paying out after year 4. This creates a buffer of 4 years of payments to cover 6 years of healthcare. Since the plan would still be in effect after year 10, looking at the cost over the first 10 years does not create an accurate accounting of real cost over the long term.
Lets just copy one of the European systems. I vote for the Dutch, German, or Swiss.
Posted by: james on December 10, 2009 at 6:03 PM | PERMALINK
Other polls have indicated that about half of the people opposing HCR as proposed by the Senate are doing so because the propose reform do not go far enough.
The Democrats have abandoned their base and are losing votes ON BOTH SIDES of the issue.
Posted by: Glen on December 11, 2009 at 2:58 AM | PERMALINK
"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."
---H.L. Mencken, 1924
Posted by: TCinLA on December 11, 2009 at 3:22 AM | PERMALINK
This is why for years my political motto has been, "It's The Lying, Stupid."
As long as the Republicans can lie with impuntiy -- as they have been since Nixon -- they will have influence far beyond their numbers and will be almost impossible to defeat.
We HAVE to do something about the lying or we will continue to be ruled by this obstreperous and stupid minority.
First step? Call a liar a liar and call an idiot an idiot.
Posted by: The Fool on December 11, 2009 at 9:12 AM | PERMALINK
But, But, it is not the lies that are at fault, it is Barack Obama who is at fault. He hasn't done enough to push for healthcare reform, he hasn't said that he supports a public option, he hasn't called out the republicans on their lies, he hasn't even spoken to the nation about healthcare reform...
oh wait, sorry I was just reading FDL instead of actually, you know, thinking about what has actually happened this last year.
Posted by: homerhk on December 11, 2009 at 9:19 AM | PERMALINK