Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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December 22, 2009

GRIJALVA EYES IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE.... Rep Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), the co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, has been fighting constantly all year to keep as many liberal provisions in the health care reform bill as possible. He'd made some veiled threats (and some not-so-veiled threats) about opposing any bill without a public option, though he's now signaling his support for the watered-down legislation.

Grijalva's is, however, looking for another concession -- one that need not alienate any center-right members of the Senate Democratic caucus. He talked to Greg Sargent today, and said he's eyeing the implementation schedule

In the inteview, Grijalva confirmed that House Dems were beginning to discuss the idea of revising the Senate bill in conference to move up the implementation date for insurance coverage and make it more in line with the earlier date in the House bill.

I asked Grijalva if he could support the bill if such a change were made, even if it lacked a public option or other similar concessions sought by liberals.

"It would sweeten it somewhat," Grijalva said, "if they speed up the coverage mechanism."

He added: "That would be something I'd have to look at very closely."

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) seems to be thinking along the same lines, arguing today that the "starting date" will be a key focus in the conference committee.

As we talked about yesterday, the sooner the better. Paul Starr argued that a faster timetable should be a priority in the conference-committee talks, and there's no reason to think lawmakers like Ben Nelson or Joe Lieberman would object -- they can come up with new objections on the fly, but neither have ever said a word about the implementation schedule. And why would they? There's nothing ideological about it.

By all accounts, literally the only reason to delay implementation of subsidies until 2014 is to bring down the overall cost of the bill. The Senate version costs $871 billion over 10 years, which is below the ceiling the White House presented in September. Moving up the schedule means moving above the ceiling.

What I'm unclear on -- and if anyone knows for certain, email me -- is exactly how much it would cost to move up subsidies from 2014 to 2013 (or sooner still). Is it in the range of an additional $50 billion? Or closer to an additional $200 billion? The former makes it feasible; the latter does not.

Steve Benen 4:50 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (14)

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Comments

Why in God's name are they waiting until 2014 and the exchanges to ban recisions and denials based on pre-existing conditions? Aren't these some of the most onerous actions taken by private insurance companies today?

And you can expect that, just like the credit card industry, they will jack up rates just prior to the bill going into effect.

Enact the ban on those two items the day the President signs it.

Posted by: Chris on December 22, 2009 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK

The impression received here was that the bill reduced H care input into the GDP by a percent or more , reduced the federal deficit by over 100 billion smackers' over a decade . Why wait ?

Posted by: FRP on December 22, 2009 at 4:57 PM | PERMALINK

I think you're underestimating the likelihood that Lieberman will stick his finger in the eye of the Democratic caucus for no other reason than he can do it.

Posted by: dr. bloor on December 22, 2009 at 5:00 PM | PERMALINK

There is a provision in the bill that stops insurance companies from hiking rates excessively before the exchanges are created.

The pre-ex ban is also going to take place immediately.

Posted by: Gridlock on December 22, 2009 at 5:01 PM | PERMALINK

I have no idea why you think that raising the cost ceiling isn't going to be a problem for center-right Democrats. And I have no idea how you think this won't be an issue for senators with a particular taste for the limelight, like Nelson & Lieberman. Have you not been paying attention?

Posted by: junebug on December 22, 2009 at 5:01 PM | PERMALINK

In the "mean"time, how many people will die or become otherwise incapacitated for lack of access to affordable healthcare? How many ERs will be closed for lack of funds to care for the many whose only HC system is the ER?
I know they can't do it by the end of the year, but 2013 or 2014? What a joke!

Posted by: st john on December 22, 2009 at 5:16 PM | PERMALINK

I can just hear Joe Lieberman, in his best "more in sorrow than in anger" voice, explaining how he'll vote to filibuster this--as a matter of conscience--because he's so concerned about the national debt. "We can't pass this debt on to our children," he'll say. (What he's really concerned about, of course, is giving progressives anything to smile about.)

Posted by: Miki on December 22, 2009 at 5:25 PM | PERMALINK

And you can expect that, just like the credit card industry, they will jack up rates just prior to the bill going into effect.

The manager's amendment says that any company that does that will be excluded from the exchange. So they could do it, as long as they don't want any of those 30 million new customers.

Posted by: Mnemosyne on December 22, 2009 at 5:29 PM | PERMALINK

"There's always a gap between bid and ask."--B. Nelson.

There's room for at least a little push and pull here.

Personally, however, I'd like to see it fly through as is, which I believe includes an immediate ban on denial of coverage.

People have died during the debate this week because they neither have nor can get insurance. This isn't something that can be put off.

Posted by: Steve High on December 22, 2009 at 5:31 PM | PERMALINK

No can do. It will take a year or so to collect the data necessary for assembling the rationing metrics. Hell, it's going to take the better part of 4 years just to appoint and confirm the death panels.

Posted by: Chopin on December 22, 2009 at 5:53 PM | PERMALINK

Can someone explain to me -- in easy term, allowing for my half-Polack brain to comprehend them -- just how postponing the implementation is going to save money?

The longer people have to depend on ER as their primary healthcare provider, the more the whole thing is gonna cost, no? The inflation, however slowly creeping it may be, is gonna kick in too, so that what costs $1 today may well cost $2 by 2014, no?

Chopin, that's the lamest excuse for inefficiency I've ever heard in my life. Privatisation is the answer to your problems, esp vis-a-vis the death panel work. We already have death panel mechanisms in place -- they're called insurance companies -- why not just keep those, on contract?

Posted by: exlibra on December 22, 2009 at 8:14 PM | PERMALINK

Deficits don't matter; it's our due.

Posted by: km on December 22, 2009 at 10:33 PM | PERMALINK

Exlibra: "cost" here means new outlays by the federal vogt, not total health care spending. The subsidies are only available to those with access to the exchanges, and such access starts with the unemployed and uninsured and then phases in access for small businesses over five years. So it's only in 2019 that the maximum spending (and access) kicks in.

To answer steves question, I'd assume that by accelerating implementation, you replace a zero spending year at the front end with an additional max spending year at the back end of the ten year window. That mean that the increase in spending for moving up implementation by one year would be closer to $200B than $50B. A more viable approach might be to allow states to implement ahead of schedule if they have an exchange set up. The CBO would have a hard time scoring that at much more than $50B a year, if not much less than that.

Posted by: Rich C on December 22, 2009 at 11:28 PM | PERMALINK

The cost shift occurs because the Cadillac tax cuts in immediately but the subsidies do not. So in essence the CBO gets 10yrs of income for 6 yrs of outgo. That's ENRON accounting, to my POV, and the only possible reason for the silly delay. Meanwhile we throw billions with no strings attached to the Effing banksters.

Also, let's not forget the rampant immorality of the DFH for arguing against this particular form of insurance reform. They were going to delay health insurance for 30 million people. Pot, meet kettle?

Posted by: an old guy on December 23, 2009 at 10:45 AM | PERMALINK
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