Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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January 1, 2010

WEAKENING AL QAEDA.... Yesterday, Director of National Intelligence Admiral Dennis Blair (ret.) sent a letter to members of the intelligence community. It reflects a bit on the developments of 2009, looks at the challenges ahead, and most notably, highlights institutional progress in combating terrorism.

After noting the reviews that have already begun in the wake of the failed Christmas attack, Blair wrote:

Whatever shortcomings emerge in these investigations should not obscure the progress the Intelligence Community has made in developing collection and analysis capabilities, in improving collaboration, and in sharing information, both against al Qa'ida and against the many other threats to our national security.

The Intelligence Community should be proud of its role in weakening al Qa'ida's ability to plan, organize, finance, and carry out highly orchestrated attacks conducted by well trained teams, like those on 9/11. Al Qa'ida is diminished as evidenced by the fact they are sending inexperienced individuals without long association with al Qa'ida, but susceptible to jihadist ideology. Unfortunately, even unsophisticated terrorists can kill many Americans.

I suspect there will be some, especially on the right, that find Blair's assessment unsatisfying. Six days after a failed attempt to murder hundreds of Americans by blowing up an airplane, the director of national intelligence is boasting that al Qaeda is "diminished"? That the United States as "weakened" the terrorist network's abilities?

Well, actually, yes. It may seem counter-intuitive to appreciate al Qaeda's weakened state so soon after it nearly executed a deadly plot, but that doesn't change the larger truth.

The Guardian had a report in September on al Qaeda "finding it difficult to attract recruits or carry out spectacular operations in western countries." Counter-terrorism officials said the terrorist network "faced a crisis that was severely affecting its ability to find, inspire and train willing fighters."

The New York Times had a related report soon after, which reached a similar conclusion: "[I]n important ways, Al Qaeda and its ideology of global jihad are in a pronounced decline."

Emile Nakhleh, who headed the CIA's strategic analysis program on political Islam until 2006, noted that al Qaeda is "finding it harder to recruit" and "harder to raise money." Audrey Kurth Cronin, a professor at the National War College in Washington, added, "I think Al Qaeda is in the process of imploding. This is not necessarily the end. But the trends are in a good direction."

Kevin Drum had a good item the other day about the network's relative strength.

The fact that al-Qaeda keeps focusing on airplanes is a sign of how weak they are. Sure, they could detonate a bomb in a security line, but it wouldn't kill very many people and it certainly wouldn't have the psychological impact of taking down a jumbo jet. Alternatively, they could try to blow up a chemical plant or something like that, but that's out of their league. They'd have to get a team of operatives into the country and then they'd have to do all the planning and all the execution within the borders of the United States, where surveillance is far greater than it is in Yemen or Nigeria. They plainly don't have the resources to do this, and every in-country plot we've uncovered since 2001 has been bumbling and amateurish.

Obviously this could change, but at the moment I think it's wrong to say al-Qaeda "could always kill people" in a bunch of other ways. In fact, the evidence suggests that they can't, at least not in any wholesale way.

It's understandable for Americans to have the exact opposite reaction in light of last week's plot. And as quickly became obvious, Republican lawmakers and leading conservative voices in the media have an interest in trying to make the public as fearful and mistrusting as possible, because the GOP may benefit electorally. Reading Blair's letter about the United States "weakening al Qa'ida's ability to plan, organize, finance, and carry out highly orchestrated attacks," will likely prompt replies such as, "But, but, they just tried to kill 300 people!"

Looking objectively at what's transpired, though, reinforces Blair's assessment. Historically, al Qaeda attacks have featured "redundancy, simultaneity, and good planning." Last week's plot had none of those elements.

This is not to say the threat is gone -- it's obviously not. It's also not to say terrorists are incapable of committing horrific acts of mass murder -- they obviously are. The point is that the terrorist network that executed the attacks of 9/11 is weaker and is less capable.

That doesn't make us safe. If U.S. forces were somehow able to eliminate 99% of the terrorist threat around the globe, the remaining 1% could still produce devastating acts of violence. The terrorist threat in Oklahoma in 1995 was all but non-existent, but Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols were nevertheless able to blow up a federal building and kill 168 innocent people. As Blair's letter to the intelligence community noted, "even unsophisticated terrorists can kill many Americans."

But the larger trend is clearly heartening, and should come as something of a relief to Americans.

Steve Benen 12:40 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (18)

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Comments

The interesting part, to me at least, is that the Al Qaeda leadership reportedly claimed that this was in retaliation for what's going on in Yemen. And what's going on there? Well, the Yemen government has been attacking and undermining Al Qaeda camps and operatives within their borders, and they've been very successful lately. And a big part of their success is the logistical and tactical support they've been getting from the Obama administration.

So really, the fact that they decided they had to retaliate is a sign that we're succeeding against them and they're desperate to derail our success. And the fact that they bungled the attack so badly shows just how completely they've been undermined lately.

Posted by: Shade Tail on January 1, 2010 at 12:51 PM | PERMALINK

Obviously, in order to keep us sssafe from crotch bombers the solution is to embargo Nigeria from receiving Fruit-Of-The Loom products.

Posted by: cwolf on January 1, 2010 at 1:01 PM | PERMALINK

Applying the right's logic - well their thinking, no that wont work, how their brain...hmm. Well anyway, I'm sure they can understand how Obama has prevented major catastrophes from happening.

Posted by: ComradeAnon on January 1, 2010 at 1:12 PM | PERMALINK

It feels, at least to me, that people intuitively get this, despite frothing right-wing fearmongering and faux-sober Village CW. I mean, the day after Christmas, one of NY's trashy tabloids, either the Post or the Daily News, had as its front page the headline "Great Balls of Fire." Those are the perfect vehicles to stir up what the right wing is trying to cook, and they didn't take the bait, I sense because they knew their readers wouldn't buy it. There has not, as yet, been real negative movement in Obama's approval in the daily trackers, and some evidence that there's been an upswing since Christmas -- e.g., Y2K's weekly tracker. Anecdotally (admittedly), reports from holiday travelers across the board are that it's business as usual at the airports despite tighter security -- people are still flying. So trying to score political points of al Qa'ida boogeymen will probably result in diminishing returns for the Republicans this time around, if I had to guess.

Posted by: jamfan on January 1, 2010 at 1:17 PM | PERMALINK

I think the Intelligence community is worthy of both criticism and praise. There was enough circumstantial evidence to keep this guy off a plane and reject his entrance to the US. I also completely agree that Al Queda's capabilities have been severely weekend. The intel community should concentrate their efforts on database management. It is not that hard to maintain a database with 500K bad guys. ITunes, American Medical Assoc (800K docs) and NASDAQ have larger and more sophisticated databases. CIA may want to hire Larry Ellison as a consultant.

BTW- whats up with Chertoff and Haydon on MTP this sunday? Is Gregory auditioning for FOX?

Posted by: RolloTomasi on January 1, 2010 at 1:53 PM | PERMALINK

I know how to stop further BVD bombers! Make sure they wear underpants worn by right-wingers. Those are so wet from pissing themselves, a blow-torch couldn't light the Semtex.
Don't you understand? Everytime you ring the fear bell, another terrorists looks to get on something that has wings.

Posted by: c u n d gulag on January 1, 2010 at 2:11 PM | PERMALINK

Something I've tried occasionally to impress on my conservative friends: very few terrorists are the diabolically rational fanatics you see in movies or on Criminal Intent. As it turns out, most xenophobic religious fanatics are not very good at understanding what goes on in other countries, let alone passing themselves off as the locals and planning attacks that depend on detailed understanding of local culture.

So, they are most dangerous on their home ground, they don't have that many plots going on elsewhere, and good, aggressive intelligence work can spot them and interdict them.

The first idea the news chatterers had about the Oklahoma City bombing was that it was some fanatic from Lebanon (the conflict de'jure at the time). As if Oklahoma City even existed in the imagination of Lebanese fringe groups!

Writers of American B novels and TV scripts have an edge over actual terrorists, being thoroughly familiar with American culture and infrastructure.

Of course, creating terrorist characters who, chameleon-like, can pass themselves off instantly as American cops and paramedics is as easy as creating human-looking robots. All you have to do is hire an actor. Real terrorists, like actual roboticists, have to start from scratch.

Posted by: Midland on January 1, 2010 at 2:34 PM | PERMALINK

This is right on. The hysteria is coming from those who don't understand that a comprehensive response to terrorism works better over time. Wildly lashing out with the your military is not a sign of strength, and since the Bush Admin didn't think through the consequences of its moves, it constantly stretched and overreached with our intelligence capabilities to the point where we could only react. Obama's approach has been good where it has been proactive and based on causes, but weak when it has taken the hammer approach (drones, killing civilians).

Posted by: BGinCHI on January 1, 2010 at 3:24 PM | PERMALINK

steve: the director of national intelligence is boasting that al Qaeda is "diminished"?

sure..

Al-Qaida faces recruitment crisis, anti-terrorism experts say - Guardian.com 9/10/09

Posted by: mr. irony on January 1, 2010 at 3:58 PM | PERMALINK

In the 50's the mantra was "My country, right or wrong."

In the 60's it was "Love it or leave it".

in the 00's is was "You're either with us or you're against us."


Today, it is,"Real patriots vote Republican. . ."

Posted by: DAY on January 1, 2010 at 4:10 PM | PERMALINK

One would like to think the fear machine is a bit worn in the transmission by its overuse. While we certainly aren't making a lot of friends in Muslim countries, we aren't quite the belligerent attack dogs we were during Bushco times either.

Henny-Penny, the sky is falling only works for so long. The trogs on the right don't seem to understand that very well. They'll just have to keep praying that an attack happens soon, or maybe they'll just plan one.

Posted by: rrRk1 on January 1, 2010 at 4:10 PM | PERMALINK

Actually, I think this is counter-intuitive only on in a very superficial sense. A little thought comes up with many instances of "weakened" powers that are nonetheless not harmless. In December of 1944 Germany launched a deadly, and ultimately unsuccessful attack on American forces in the Ardennes. But does anyone seriously doubt that by December of 1944 Germay had been "weakened". One can easily come up with innumerable other examples.

Posted by: MSR on January 1, 2010 at 4:42 PM | PERMALINK

Come to think of it, the term "Intelligence Community" is kinda fruity. If we need a word to encompass all the intelligence services in every department, how about something boss like "Intelligence Sector"? Or "Intelligence Legion"? Or maybe, gosh, "Intelligence Services"?

Posted by: Grumpy on January 1, 2010 at 4:57 PM | PERMALINK

I have long thought that "intelligence community" makes it sound like spies are a minority group contending with discrimination and disrespect. Black community, Latino community, gay community, intelligence community.

Posted by: FlipYrWhig on January 1, 2010 at 5:20 PM | PERMALINK

'Historically, al Qaeda attacks have featured "redundancy, simultaneity, and good planning." Last week's plot had none of those elements.'

Everyone seems to be taking Al Qaeda's word for it that they were behind this. But is that certain?

This attack looks too amateurish to be an AQ op. Even the target--Detroit, a second-rate, declining city--seems "off" as the focus of a sophisticated group like AQ. The choice of targets indicates the parochialism of an amateur like McVeigh, rather than a professional like OBL.

Posted by: Nancy Irving on January 1, 2010 at 7:30 PM | PERMALINK

Blair said what?!? Clearly Janet Napolitano must step down!!

Posted by: Quaker in a Basement on January 1, 2010 at 9:47 PM | PERMALINK

It is probably the case that an organization that can project power only by inducing the confused, depressed, mentally confused young to blow themselves up probably is pretty weak.

Posted by: bob h on January 2, 2010 at 7:08 AM | PERMALINK

Al-Qaeda has been weak since 9/12. The threat may have been overstated. What Al-Qaeda had going for it on 9/11 were passengers willing to be hijacked. And that is really the end of the story with that. Can we move on to things that really kill us? Like lightning, slipping in the bathtub, and bald tires

Posted by: inkadu on January 2, 2010 at 9:41 AM | PERMALINK
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