February 26, 2010
MEET THE NEW WAY FORWARD (SAME AS THE OLD WAY FORWARD).... The road to legislative success on health care reform has been readily apparent for several weeks: the House passes the Senate bill, the Senate approves changes through reconciliation. It's been the pass-the-damn-bill solution since last month's unpleasantness in Massachusetts.
There are still all kinds of variables that make success difficult. Will the House and Senate agree on a compromise deal that bridges the gaps? Are there 51 votes for the reconciliation fix? Are there 217 votes to pass the House?
Let's say, just for the sake of pleasant conversation, that all of those questions can be answered in the affirmative. That may or may not come to be, but let's just say it for now anyway. The next question is which chamber would go first. Time's Michael Scherer had a good item on this today. (via Kevin Drum)
The Senate does not want to go first because Republicans will be able to bottle up the reconciliation process, delaying the vote and making for another ugly sausage making spectacle that Americans hate to watch. If reconciliation takes too long, the thinking goes, then the House will never act, and the whole health care deal will die. But if the House goes first by passing the Senate bill, and the president signs it, then the incentive for Republicans to bottle up reconciliation would be diminished. Health care reform would, at that point, already be law.... Republicans would then be obstructing fixes to the law that would make the bill, arguably, better by getting rid of stuff like the "cornhusker kickback," a much tougher proposition.
Here is where it gets tricky: The House is not going to vote on the Senate bill (even with a separate package of amendments to match the Senate's reconciliation) until it is dead certain that the Senate will act. So how could those assurances be arranged? With the help of C-Span cameras, of course, or perhaps a letter from 51 Democrats vowing to pass reconciliation come hell or high water. Once the letter is read on the nightly news, the House can act, and suddenly the pressure would be on the Senate Republicans. With health care already law, the GOP will have to decide whether or not to spend weeks gumming up the Senate to delay some amendments to that bill.
Remember, as far as the Democratic leadership in the House is concerned, the Senate has to go first. As far as the Senate is concerned, the House has to go first. You see the problem.
The House's reluctance is driven, in large part, by mistrust -- the caucus doesn't think it can count on the Senate to follow through and approve a budget fix through reconciliation later.
But there may be some signals of progress on this front. Speaker Pelosi this morning wasn't quite as insistent on the Senate going first as she has been, and around the same time, Congressional Progressive Caucus Co-Chair Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) said it would "help a lot" if a majority of Senate Dems signed a letter pledging to make agreed-upon fixes, just as Scherer alluded to.
Just as important, Rep. George Miller (D-Calif.), chairman of the House Education and Labor Committee and an influential member of the caucus, told MSNBC that "choreography gets a little complicated," but he envisions the process moving forward. "That may require us to pass the Senate bill first, and then send the reconciliation bill to the Senate for them to pass," Miller said. "I think Senator Reid believes that he can put together the votes for that, and then we can have a new, modern health care system in this country that can be signed by" President Obama.
Glimmers of hope poke through the clouds....
—Steve Benen 4:35 PM
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Yeah, and then there are the pundits now using all kinds of misleading phrases, saying it's an 'arcane procedure', further loading it up with phrases like "cramming and shoving the HCR bill through".
Obama needs to push Reid and Pelosi to really make this happen. He better not drop the ball now.
Posted by: Insanity on February 26, 2010 at 4:43 PM | PERMALINK
Steve, good reporting/blogging/analysis.
I'm now wondering what timeline, if any, Obama and the Congressional Democratic leadership are operating on.
From Obama's closing remarks yesterday, and from some of the other comments by high-level Democrats in and around the summit, I'd guess they're aiming for final passage before the Easter Recess.
Anyone able to confirm that?
Or another timeline?
Posted by: massappeal on February 26, 2010 at 4:48 PM | PERMALINK
Glimmer of hope, indeed.
Remember, however, what Will Rogers said about his political affiliation.
Remember, too, that every house member is up for re-election in November. By a constituency that is, "Mad as hell and not gonna take it anymore!"
Posted by: DAY on February 26, 2010 at 4:49 PM | PERMALINK
If anyone else is as sick as I am at McCain's Sunday show MTP, please email them (as I did) and complain, the odious David Gregory must be in love with McWhine.
Posted by: JS on February 26, 2010 at 4:49 PM | PERMALINK
I agree or there will be Hell to pay for everybody involved. Wake the fuck up Democrats, it's seriously time to do your job!
Posted by: Trollop on February 26, 2010 at 4:49 PM | PERMALINK
Given how many major pieces of controversial legislation the House has passed that are languishing and likely dying in the Senate, I have to say my sympathies on this one are wholly with the House. Let the Senate show some spine for once and do its job rather than hang the House out on a controversial vote that leaves them exposed but with no law to show for it.
Posted by: zeitgeist on February 26, 2010 at 4:50 PM | PERMALINK
JS: I did write them.
Text here: http://meander61.blogspot.com/2010/02/mccain-again.html
Posted by: Meander on February 26, 2010 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK
zeitgeist wrote: "I have to say my sympathies on this one are wholly with the House."
Me too.
On both health insurance and climate/energy, the progressive Democrats in the House have passed FAR SUPERIOR LEGISLATION to the corporate-welfare-disguised-as-reform bill that corporate-stooge Senate Democrats like Max Baucus have put on the table.
Which is probably the reason that "sensible liberals" are so busy vilifying the House Democrats and demanding that the House "pass whatever damn bill" the Senate Democrats can compromise with their fellow Republicans to come up with.
Posted by: SecularAnimist on February 26, 2010 at 5:05 PM | PERMALINK
As I've said in the past, the letter from the Senators to House leadershipneeds to be signed IN BLOOD, and copies need to be distributed to every media outlet.
With Harry Reid at the helm, there can be no wiggle room with these bastards.
Posted by: bdop4 on February 26, 2010 at 5:08 PM | PERMALINK
Senate Republicans are stalling on extending unemployment benefits.
They would stall on a bill to fix the Senate Health Care bill, regardless of what passes first.
The House should insist that the Senate pass the fix first.
Posted by: Eric Jaffa on February 26, 2010 at 5:13 PM | PERMALINK
"The Republicans are your opposition. The Senate is your enemy."
Posted by: pseudonymous in nc on February 26, 2010 at 5:38 PM | PERMALINK
In fairness we should note that Jonathan Bernstein has been plugging pass-and-patch for a month:
http://plainblogaboutpolitics.blogspot.com/2010/01/house-dems-leap-you-have-hand-this-time.html
He is really very good. He called this early, and I am becoming more convinced he called it right.
Posted by: tomtom on February 26, 2010 at 6:13 PM | PERMALINK
Of, for Pete's sake!
Michael Scherer is a moron. The Republicans are not afraid of a bad bill, they are afraid of a GOOD BILL.
The idea that they would fight improvements to the bill through reconciliation any less if the House passed it is absurd.
Posted by: Matthew G. Saroff on February 26, 2010 at 6:22 PM | PERMALINK
Warning to House Democrats: Dont trust the Senate and dont trust the President. They want the Senate bill as is, he wants the Senate bill as is. If the House goes first the President and the Senate have 2 outs. Either the Republicans will filibuster and/or offer endless amendments, or as a backup there are enough Senate Dems who really dont want reform to see to it that they dont get to 50 votes (see Glenn Greenwald on Villain Rotation). Remember the Dorgan Amendment. It was all set to pass, then suddenly came up short to preserve Obamas backroom deal with PhRMA. Dont trust him.
Posted by: Craig on February 26, 2010 at 6:48 PM | PERMALINK
Half a loaf is better than none at all, as HHH used to say. Personally, I think that they've done a great job of pushing the GOP into the "irrelephant" corner with the dunce cap on its collective head. (appropriate that the shape matches those hoary heads). If it passed, all praise, and this will be forgotten. If not, that's the end of health care in our generation. Just drop trou and cough when the Insurance companies ... er ... ah ... well, you get the idea.
Hope they remember to clip their fingernails.
Posted by: Hart Williams on February 26, 2010 at 7:21 PM | PERMALINK
At some point Democrats and the media will figure out that the Republicans are going to obstruct everything, incentivized or not.
Jeezy creezy.
There is nothing that can be done to get them to behave rationally because it is in their best interest to be crazy. That's their base.
Posted by: Bugg Ding Dong on February 26, 2010 at 7:36 PM | PERMALINK
Even if the Senate is fully trustworthy...which it is not. Once the Senate bill is passed by the House and signed or even just held by the Speaker, ALL the pressure for doing reconciliation evaporates.
Things happen and the Seante fix...thorough no ill will at all on the Seante's side could mean reconciliation can't happen.
If Grijalva agrees that a letter is enough then he is a political fool....and I really thought more of him than this.
It would be e dereliction of his responsibility to agree.
Is the savior here going to have to be Bart Stu
Posted by: debcoop on February 26, 2010 at 7:39 PM | PERMALINK
I wouldn’t trust the Senate as far as I could throw them over a bridge.
If they don’t want to pass the so-called fixes first, they’re never going to pass them.
Posted by: Joe Friday on February 26, 2010 at 7:51 PM | PERMALINK
“The road to legislative success on health care reform has been readily apparent for several weeks: the House passes the Senate bill, the Senate approves changes through reconciliation. It's been the pass-the-damn-bill solution since last month's unpleasantness in Massachusetts.”
Actually, a must simpler route is to just have the Senate pass the House bill.
DONE.
Pass-the-damn-House-bill.
Posted by: Joe Friday on February 26, 2010 at 7:59 PM | PERMALINK
How is the Senate bill with no patch passed through reconcilliation worse than no HCR bill at all? It strikes me that if the House fails to pass the Senate bill, the politics of doing nothing will be a disaster for all Democrats except those in the safest districts.
Posted by: AK Liberal on February 26, 2010 at 10:13 PM | PERMALINK
Actually, a must simpler route is to just have the Senate pass the House bill.
Sorry, Joe. That's not even possible.
Posted by: AK Liberal on February 26, 2010 at 10:19 PM | PERMALINK
The Senate has to go first, or it will not act at all.
Posted by: Joe Buck on February 26, 2010 at 10:42 PM | PERMALINK
Sorry, AK Liberal, the Senate bill passed with no reconciliation IS worse than no HCR bill at all. It strikes me that if the House just passes the Senate bill, this monstrous sellout will be a disaster for all Democrats including those in the safest districts.
Sorry, again, AK, your accepting the Senate's bill, buying into the idea that the Senate can't change, but imaging that the House should/would change is not evidence for what is possible.
Posted by: allen bukoff on February 26, 2010 at 11:02 PM | PERMALINK
AK Liberal,
“Sorry, Joe. That's not even possible.”
If there are not 50 votes in the Senate for the House bill, then there will be no healthcare reform.
Posted by: Joe Friday on February 27, 2010 at 1:22 AM | PERMALINK
Any plan that involves avoiding confrontation with the GOP now, in the hopes that they'll be more cooperative and reasonable later? That's a stupid plan.
Having said that, the Senate bill WOULD be better than nothing at all, for millions of uninsured Americans. I'm disappointed that the "kill the bill" crowd has drunk this particular flavor of kool-aid.
Posted by: MaximusNYC on February 27, 2010 at 1:22 AM | PERMALINK
Text here: http://meander61.blogspot.com/2010/02/mccain-again.html
Aw, don't be so hard on Dancin' Dave Gregory. It's a stressful job being a GOP mouthpiece, and with Karl Rove out of the picture he's just grooming McCain to be his new dance partner.
Posted by: Dr. Wu on February 27, 2010 at 8:27 AM | PERMALINK
If there are not 50 votes in the Senate for the House bill, then there will be no healthcare reform.
You cannot pass the entire House bill in the Senate via reconcilialtion. The Senate rules won't allow it. The only thing that can pass via reconciliation is a fix to the House bill on budget related items.
Sorry, AK Liberal, the Senate bill passed with no reconciliation IS worse than no HCR bill at all. It strikes me that if the House just passes the Senate bill, this monstrous sellout will be a disaster for all Democrats including those in the safest districts.
How so? That's a serious question. And no, I'm not suggesting that the Senate bill should be accepted without an attempt to fix it. However, it strikes me that the Senate bill is an improvement over the status quo and the politics of not passing any HCR is worse than accepting the Senate bill as is.
Posted by: AK Liberal on February 27, 2010 at 9:39 AM | PERMALINK
AK Liberal,
“You cannot pass the entire House bill in the Senate via reconcilialtion.”
Of course you can.
“The Senate rules won't allow it. The only thing that can pass via reconciliation is a fix to the House bill on budget related items.”
Nope.
The entire SCHIP healthcare legislation was passed utilizing reconciliation.
“it strikes me that the Senate bill is an improvement over the status quo and the politics of not passing any HCR is worse than accepting the Senate bill as is.”
The Senate bill is horrible and would also likely cause the loss of both Houses.
Posted by: Joe Friday on February 27, 2010 at 11:30 AM | PERMALINK