Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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March 11, 2010

POOR POKER PLAYERS.... We're well past the point at which Republicans can make substantive arguments about health care policy and hope to influence the outcome. Whether a Democratic lawmaker votes for or against the final package is not dependent on the GOP raising some heretofore overlooked policy observation.

So, what's left in the Republican playbook? Scaring the bejesus out of wavering Dems. Jon Chait had a good item on this.

Republicans are warning Democrats that passing health care reform will make them less popular. They are alerting the House that Senators will betray any deal they make. And they are insisting that reconciliation will be a bloody, protracted fight, even signing a letter promising to invoke the "Byrd Rule" to strike out any non-budgetary measures from a reconciliation bill.

Clearly, this is mostly a bluff. After all, Senate Democrats would be crazy to make specific promises to the House and then renege on them -- they would never pass another bill again. Democrats aren't planning to put non-budgetary items into a reconciliation bill, so Republican can threaten all they want to invoke the Byrd Rule, but they'll lose. Anyway, threatening to fight reconciliation is a threat to fight popular changes -- delaying the excise tax, canceling special deals for Florida and Nebraska -- after a comprehensive health care reform has already become a fait accompli. The GOP would be putting itself on the wrong side of public opinion to stop a bill that's already passed.

I just wonder if Democrats are actually foolhardy enough to heed these warnings.

That's certainly the right question. Republicans are just being shameless at this point, making obvious, ham-fisted threats, trying to drive a wedge between the House and Senate caucuses, and hoping to convince some Democrats that the GOP is a reliable source of campaign advice -- as if Republicans were seriously looking out for Dems' best interests.

In other words, the GOP hopes Democrats are so weak, and have such a hair-trigger panic reflex, that Dems will do what Republicans want, simply because Republicans want it.

Chait asks whether Democrats could really be that "pathetic." My sense is, no, they can't. I talked to some Hill staffers yesterday who characterized the GOP tactics as a transparent joke. "How dumb do they think we are?" one aide told me.

I try not to underestimate some Dems' capacity for self-destruction, but at this point, the fear tactics are just too over the top to be effective.

Steve Benen 9:25 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (22)

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. . . the GOP hopes Democrats are so weak, and have such a hair-trigger panic reflex, that Dems will do what Republicans want, simply because Republicans want it.

"How dumb do they think we are?" one aide told me.

I'm pretty sure that was a rhetorical question and that they would be shocked and offended by an honest answer from someone out here in the real world.


Posted by: SteveT on March 11, 2010 at 9:28 AM | PERMALINK

"How dumb do they think we are?"

unfortuately, based on past performance, i'm pretty sure the republicans think they know the answer to that question.

Posted by: mellowjohn on March 11, 2010 at 9:32 AM | PERMALINK

Reminds me of old Tokyo Rose recordings. "Dear house member, while you're here fighting for HRC, your senator's back home betraying you. So sad."

Posted by: Kevin Ray on March 11, 2010 at 9:33 AM | PERMALINK

"How dumb do they think we are?"

Dumb enough to try what they're trying.

It's worked before...

Posted by: bleh on March 11, 2010 at 9:35 AM | PERMALINK

I'm looking forward to "The Repeal Campaign '10" to begin the moment Obama signs it.

I think the Republicans are in for a surprise.

Posted by: SaintZak on March 11, 2010 at 9:39 AM | PERMALINK

In other words, the GOP hopes Democrats are so weak, and have such a hair-trigger panic reflex, that Dems will do what Republicans want, simply because Republicans want it.

Gosh, I wonder what would have led Republicans to anticipate this -- apart from, y'know, their memories of every minute of every day of our political life for the past thirty years.

Posted by: Steve M. on March 11, 2010 at 9:46 AM | PERMALINK

Remembering a Republican Party of yore that was all about "personal responsibility", I would like to see a counterattack on that point. Opting out of health insurance is personally irresponsible because the rest of society then has to pick up the tab for your illness.

The Republicans are sanctioning behavior that is personally irresponsible.

Posted by: bob h on March 11, 2010 at 9:47 AM | PERMALINK

From what I hear in DC - esp among people with connections among Republicans - they think it definitely is working. They are getting traction with people back home complaining about every little procedural detail, especially because the press covers each procedural move as a bombshell. They are more confident of Democrats ineptitude than anything else!

Posted by: dcdenizen on March 11, 2010 at 9:51 AM | PERMALINK

As others have indicated, the Democrats' actions in the past do not instill a whole lot of faith in this voter.

Posted by: Lifelong Dem on March 11, 2010 at 9:51 AM | PERMALINK

As say others, Washington is capable of any level of betrayal, especially when it comes to the kabuki theatre of Repugnant power games for the corporate sway and Dim wilting cowardice in its face.

Historically this has been our 'democracy' in action, providing more and more for the fictitiously named and less and less for those who breathe, bleed and die.

"War is Peace"
"Slavery is Freedom"
"Ignorance is Strength"

Just a children's story...

Posted by: neill on March 11, 2010 at 10:05 AM | PERMALINK

But here we are in March, and we STILL don't have a signed law in effect.

I'll stop worrying about the Democrats ability to self-destruct when Obama's signature is drying on the page.

Posted by: biggerbox on March 11, 2010 at 10:08 AM | PERMALINK

I am hoping that various House and Sen dems realize that at this point, they gain a lot, from at least part of their base, by passing the bill. Not passing it, and continuing to look weak, will only create further erosion of support from the people they count on the most.

I am going to donate to Stupak'challenger today, for exa. IF he stopped dicking around, I woudn't. THe more clear, straightforward support that I hear, the more likely it is that I will support the cause. And, if anyone cares, keep the focus on the simple things HCR does -; No caps; No denial of coverage, etc etc etc. Pound home the message.

Posted by: bigtuna on March 11, 2010 at 10:10 AM | PERMALINK

oh, Democratic congressperson, its not that we really think you're dumb its just that we. . . BOO!

bwahahahaa. gotcha.

Posted by: zeitgeist on March 11, 2010 at 10:11 AM | PERMALINK

Despite all the easy cynicism on this board, I think the underlying dynamic is clear: for the Dems, it's this bill or nothing, and if they end up choosing nothing they can look forward to another 1994. This effort is going to end up looking like what it is - unkillable.

The Republicans bet everything on just outright killing the bill with nothing to offer in its place, which I think was a mistake. The actual issues can't be ignored any longer, so some sort of bill will have to be passed. Given that the Republicans didn't come up with one, then the thing that passes will be the Democrats' version, by default.

The Republicans' mistake is compounded by the fact that they went all in spreading hysterical lies in their effort to stop what the Dems were doing. Once it passes and doesn't turn out to be the horrorshow the Republicans predicted, they look foolish, dishonest AND irrelevant.

Posted by: jimBOB on March 11, 2010 at 10:11 AM | PERMALINK

Reminds me of old Tokyo Rose recordings. "Dear house member, while you're here fighting for HRC, your senator's back home betraying you. So sad."

Love it!

Posted by: shortstop on March 11, 2010 at 10:24 AM | PERMALINK

The dithering politicians in the Senate are only interested in protecting their corporate donations. Not the American people and not America.If the Republicans give them an excuse to use so be it is the politicians policy.If a democrat is fearful to give Americans at least the coverage in medical health insurance they enjoy they should resign and join the republican party. For each one who has dithered for their corporate donor, ie insurance and pharmaceutical industry, I hope and pray they lose their election.

Posted by: MlJohnston on March 11, 2010 at 10:34 AM | PERMALINK

"In other words, the GOP hopes Democrats are so weak, and have such a hair-trigger panic reflex, that Dems will do what Republicans want, simply because Republicans want it."

It's worked at every other step of the HCR debate, why not now?

Posted by: Tlaloc on March 11, 2010 at 10:50 AM | PERMALINK

Why Democrats keep falling for this crap has always been a mystery to me. Republicans say:

"If you vote this way, we'll call you names."

And Congressional Democrats act scarred. It's pathetic. Why can't Democrats figure out that:

1 - No matter what they do Republicans will call them names. Republicans are the opposition that's their bloody job. Tney're not in it to help Democrats win.

2 - By constantly capitulating to the right they reinforce the image that they are wimps who can't and won't fight for what they believe in.

Like I said, pathetic.

Posted by: thorin-1 on March 11, 2010 at 11:10 AM | PERMALINK

"How dumb do they think we are?" one aide told me.

Based on experience, the Democrats are pretty damn dumb. I for one will be amazed if these spineless idiots actually pull this one out.

Posted by: TCinLA on March 11, 2010 at 12:02 PM | PERMALINK

"Chait asks whether Democrats could really be that 'pathetic.' My sense is, no, they can't."

Based on what evidence, Steve?

Posted by: Kid Charles on March 11, 2010 at 12:28 PM | PERMALINK


In other words, the GOP hopes Democrats are so weak, and have such a hair-trigger panic reflex, that Dems will do what Republicans want, simply because Republicans want it.

No one ever went broke betting on the timidity of Democratic congress-critters. The list of examples where the Democrats' hair-trigger panic reflex allowed the GOP to manipulate them into doing whatever they wanted is far too long to list, but a few "best of" moments include:
1. Iraq War Resolution
2. The Detainees bill in 2006 (also known as the first time I was ever disappointed in Sherrod Brown).
3. The bulk of the HCR debate
4. Cowing the dems into taking investigating the crimes of Bush staffers off the table.
5. The Stimulus Package.

Posted by: Sisyphus on March 11, 2010 at 3:33 PM | PERMALINK

@Sisyphus

6 - The original Patriot Act and its subsequent reauthorizations

7 - FICA reform

As you said the list is near endless. I wonder what evidence Steve believes points to the existence of a backbone among Congressional Democrats. They may occassionally TALK a tough game but when it comes time to put up or shut up (ie vote) they tend to shut up.

Posted by: thorin-1 on March 11, 2010 at 6:56 PM | PERMALINK
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