Steve -- I can't keep up with reading your posts; have you cloned yourself?

There's plenty of negative ammo to use against "generic Republican" Then there's Paul Ryan as budget man, specifically. Do Democrats think that way though? Howard Dean comes to mind.

Of course there's the true head of the party, the POTUS. Hope he has a few things to say. I'm not sure he's going to do it for House candidates or the Dem brand as well as he did it for himself. Hope! He certainly has the faculties. It is his Presidency on the line and it's on the line this year, not in '12.

if the dems pass health-care access reform and financial oversight reform, and if the economy turns up a bit more, and if job creation actually improves...

then the dems will do ok.

and if not, they won't.

It might also help the Democrats that the Republicans are collectively turning into Robin Williams in "The Fisher King."

But only if the Democrats actually, you know, tell people that the alternative reality on offer by the Republicans would be A DISASTER.

The republicans have been in campaign mode for 2010 and 2012 since the day after elections November 2008. There's time.

part of this, too, is not something Dems can take credit for: the Tea Partiers peaked way too soon. since the depths of the 'enthusiasm gap' killimg us in state and special elections, the Tea Party has had more internal fights than external, their "National Convention" was a bust, they've had Republicans rain on their parade by saying it is wrong to think third-party or that they are getting too extreme, Birthers have had several high profile embarassments as had Beck, and the world has not ended yet as a result of electing "one of those people" President as last spring's tea partiers suggested.

As moderates, indies and Dems (and the media) start to wake up, and as the economy inches toward recovery, HCR passes (and again, grandparents everywhere aren't forcably rounded up and made into Soylent Green) the enthusiasm gap will continue to narrow and the elections won't be anywhere near as bad as the predictions of last month or so.

Here's what we've learned over the last 30 months about conventional wisdom. John McCain had no shot at the Republican nomination. Barack Obama to give a good speech but couldn't win over white voters. Hillary Clinton was a lock to not only for the Democratic nomination but for the White House.

Conventional wisdom isn't all that wise.

Here's what we know -- approximate 20 to 40% of the population are in a state of flux. These voters could swing towards the Democrats, Republicans or strong Independents. So, until we figure out how these guys are going to vote we know nothing about the 2010 or 2012 elections.

My two cents.

Paul Ryan is an idiot.

there is SO MUCH ammo to use to beat R's up with. BUT.
PASS SOME GOOD BILLS!
GET MORE PEOPLE IN PLACE in the Administration;

Pound, on a daily basis, that voing for ANY republican, no matter how nice the person, is a vote for sleaze, pro corporate; anti working man and woman; tax the working people; totally lapsed ethically; regressive racist etc party.

Govern effectively, in other words, and you will get your base, + some swing voters. And pound the republican bastards into the sand.

Have a great weekend. :)

Conventional Wisdom says that the Republicans are really, REALLY smart, and the Democrats are congenitally stupid, and don't stand a chance of winning any election ever again.

How do I know this? The "Media" tells me so. Over, and over, and over. . .

(Breaking News! Dewey beats Truman.)

People are not done punishing the GOP for 2000-2008. If the Dems demonstrate that they can govern, the public will go back to the pattern established in 2006: punish the GOP until they come to their senses! Really, the exception has been one Senate seat in MA. Crazy moment but not really a historical trend.

Now, all bets would be off if the GOP started acting rationally -- bipartisanship, allowing majority rule, rewarding Democratic compromises with votes on final bills -- but what are the chances of that?

And progressives can help make it all happen by re-starting the public option debate as the first great fix to the healthcare bill, gaining more public support for the already-popular concept since it will now be unburdened by the other baggage in the main bill, forcing "centrist" Democrats to jump on board or be driven to K Street in the next couple of years, and forcing Republicans to take the side of insurance company profits and CEO salaries.

If he's smart, because it's a political fact that the public option will never go away until it's adopted, Obama will jump on board, too, regardless of what inappropriate promises were secretly made before. It will be dangerous for the next round for any Democrat to play around with the public option like so many did this time.

But not getting a watered-down public option now is a blessing. Progressives should not miss this opportunity. After a bit of good rabble-rousing, including a ringing declaration that the public option will never die or fade away and insurance companies and for-profit hospitals are going to have to deal with it someday soon, Bernie Sanders should withdraw the demand for a vote at this time on his public option bill, and use it over the next few months as a way for progressives to re-take their rightful position as the driving force of a strong Democratic Party -- and recapture the populist momentum for November.

Progressives need to field as many candidates as possible right now... including someone at least making noises to challenge Obama. Even mildly progressive opposition has sure done wonders for the voting record of Arlen Specter--- and even made someone as hopeless as Blanche Lincoln blanche.

Someone even vaguely credible would almost certainly have even greater effect on Obama, given his homozygous doses of genes for instincts for compromise. I strongly suspect Howard Dean could influence the political positions of BO even more than Huey Long influenced those of FDR. [Google Social Security]

REM that much of the "predictive" buzz about Republicans making big gains is designed to become self-fulfilling prophecy, and other is just superficiality of the squeak-enthralled media booboisie.

BTW, today was the Coffee Party kick off. Wake Up and Stand Up? Steve, unless I missed it already: we need a post/s on the CPM!

In addition to all that's been said above... Dems would do well to keep the Virginia's unholy trio of Bobby McD, Ken (Cuckoo) Cucinnelli and Billy Bolling. Like the Mass fiasco, they're the result of the "enthusiasm gap". But, while Brown is still a bit of a dark horse, careering all over the place, this "troika" is pulling to the right so fast, Virginia may be a wreck by the time they're done. We're likely to lose or triple bond rating, for example, which Warner and Kaine worked long and hard to gt us. The momentary (and self-righteous) satisfaction of having stayed at home in November is not likely to be worth it, long term...

I would like to know why the democrats did not say anything about the Scott Brown sexual harassment story,just imagine what the other side would do with it if it had been a democrat.

If the election is just about how bad things suck (and who to blame), D's lose more. Ds cannot win blaming Bush or the Rs when they were in the majority for THEIR failure to pass lots of stuff, starting with health care.

But if the election is about how bad things suck, and how Democrats passed stuff to deal with it all that Republicans hate, D's still lose -- but not as much.

Then again, if the election is about how things aren't getting worse quite as fast, and how Republicans hate all the things Democrats passed, and if there is even the slightest hint of a choice between what R's want to do and what D's have done: D's actually win.

Basically, nobody much loses over voting against something that passes -- so Rs aren't particularly vulnerable in voting against Democratic legislation even if it passes.

But Ds are extremely vulnerable if they don't get more base runners, cuz you can't score without 'em. Rs don't have that problem: they don't need to score, cuz they just want to get up to bat.

That's why Rs will be very reluctant to propose anything like the 1994 Contract with America until VERY late in the cycle: they do NOT want comparison politics until the whole field has tilted their way.

"Conventional wisdom" that skips over the dynamic and just predicts outcomes isn't analysis.

They have been used above, but I have two words that should give Democrats confidence. Paul Ryan. That guy has laid out the standard Republican roadmap. Tar and feather the Republicans with Paul Ryan's roadmap and Democrats will do fine.

The single biggest determinant will be the unemployment numbers in Sept.

If health care reform fails, so do the Democrats. That much is assured.

I've never bought into this idea. If the Democrats put this health care reform into the win column and time their next legislative push on something popular like banking regulation and consumer protections against predatory lenders like credit card companies they are going to put the Republicans on the defensive again or better still force them to cooperate in a bipartisan way and undercut all the Republicans previous cant. There's plenty of time to do that.

Gee, I wonder if Christopher John Dodd might have thought of that, working like hell to get Republicans to join, but failing, so he's just got to put together a bill without 'em, and he isn't running again so he can ....

Well, whaddaya know?

I think David Corn may be right: Could Financial Protection Bill Be a Secret Weapon for Democrats in 2010?

This is why taking and analyzing polls at this point in time is absolutely fruitless. Undecided voters are going to change their minds umpteeen times between now and November.

If the Dems pass healthcare and have accomplishments to run on, while the GOP has done nothing but obstruct, things could actually turn out pretty well for the Dems.

Part of the reason that polls have swung so strongly in favor of the GOP right now is that they have been dominating the airwaves. Things may change very quickly once the Dems start spending some money on ads in September & October.

I'm a pessimist at heart, but here's my optimistic take:

Health Insurance Reform (PTDB Fever, catch it!) is D-Day, the Normandy landings 6/6/44. At present, Democrats are already on the beach, pinned down under fire. Two choices:

1. Advance, knowing its going to be bloody, or

2. Get slaughtered while you cower in open ground. Nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide. No real option but the scariest, hardest one. Gut check time: you know what has to be done, but CAN you? (I'm thinking 60-70% now. So's Intrade. Good drawing odds in a no-limit game, but this one is looking like do or die, and 2 out of 3 is scary.)

Where I get optimistic is what comes after... IF the landings don't fail. If Pelosi (and Reid) can pull this off.

Then, Financial Reform. Its a political winner in a way that HCR is too complicated to ever be: overwhelmingly popular. For some reason, Americans of all stripes seem to be really pissed off at the banks.

Any real reforms will be predictably blocked by 41 (R) Senators. That's the play. Put it all on TV, as Rep. (Barney) Frank proposed. Hammer them on it. Even without a propaganda machine to rival the Right's, this is a drumbeat that might well catch on if we keep hitting it.

That will be their Bagration--- the forgotten in Western memory Soviet offensive on 6/22/44, that destroyed half of the the Wehrmacht. Magnificent, but it would not have been possible if Overlord failed.

Get up off that beach, and PASS THE DAMN BILL.

Do HCR and Student Loan and the sense of momentum will be unmistakable.

I have been reading all of your comments and am having a really hard time figuring out why Dems want the government to take over much of your life? You all seem to be going into it with your eyes open.
Are you too lazy to run your own life? Are you all too busy to take care of your own life or what?
I don't get it. Most nonDems don't want much government in their lives because THEY want to decide.
Besides , if it take this much bone breaking and bribary to pass a bill and get American's on board then you have to know it is a bad bill.
The dishonesty of it all gets to people too.
And I know you don't want to believe it but the majority of Americans do not want this bill.
Obama has chosen to ignore that and go to war with those that oppose it.
Congress and Obama will be long gone by the time this bill really takea affect. Doesn't that seem wrong to anyone here? You won't have anyone to blame when your doctore treats you like the Post Office does.
You must all be very young with very little life experience otherwise you would see what this is going to do to all of us and this country.

Couple of things...

1. I think the Nov elections are a lot about WHO the Republicans put up as their Senate and House candidates. If they put up people who are clearly rightist nuts AND the Dems point out, point out, and keep pointing this fact out, I think we should do okay.

2. Where in hell is the Democratic base who put Obama into office fifteen months ago? Where are all the people my family and I stood with in the cold on the lawn of the Capital in DC as Obama was inaugurated? Are the "progressives" sitting at home, pouting, because Obama has not been "progressive-enough"? Yes, a lot of them are. You know, I expect petulance and general bad behavior from Republicans, but I cannot tolerate it coming from our side. NOT TOLERATE IT. Obama has been given a super-human job to clean up the messes of the last eight years, and some progressives are going to sit out the 2010 election in protest because he hasn't moved "fast enough"! Well, I consider myself a strong "progressive", but I also consider myself a "political realist". Get off your sulky asses and participate in the Democratic system like you did two years ago.

Sometimes I think the Dems have the same problems as the Republicans. A lot of people got involved in the system to help elect Obama who had never really been involved in or interested in politics before. Good people, but sometimes naive in the way government works. You can say the same thing about the "Tea Baggers" who popped up on the Right after Obama was elected. Sarah Palin-supporters who thought the system could be changed by simply electing Palin-as-President in 2012 because she could - evidently - wave her arms and abortion rights would be taken away, God would be put back in public schools, and the country could return to the golden days of the 1950s. They talk about the Constitution but seem to have little idea what provisions for governance it actually contains.

Naive persons on both ends of the political spectrum. But I would hope that the Dems would have enough political sophistication to know change takes time and to think that eight years of incredibly bad governance could be wiped away in 14 months.

We need grass-roots support for the Democratic Congressional candidates. Not all of them will be the "progressives" we want them to be because - ya know - these people have to represent the districts that sent them to Congress.

Democrats of all stripe, get off your asses and get to work. We cannot change the way our country was headed in 14 months, but we can in 24 or 48 months.

OOps -

"Naive persons on both ends of the political spectrum. But I would hope that the Dems would have enough political sophistication to know change takes time and NOT to think that eight years of incredibly bad governance could be wiped away in 14 months."

Connie: the impetus for HCR, Finance reform etc. is that the existing institutions are not serving us well. Yeah, I want to "decide" too, but that means deciding among a slate of better choices to start with. More choice also means more types of services to choose from - such as, a public option or private insurance as I wish. You and other right-wing/pretended "common sense people" have confused the issue of having control (being able to pick menu items) with the issue of whether we like the menu itself as a whole, or want a different one.

Finally, I don't know why your Doctor would treat you like the Post Office just because health-care *insurance* has been extended and regulated. I can see that much of your (and by extension, Democrats') problem is that you and many voters see and believe rubbishy agitprop from Faux Noise etc. and don't appreciate what's really going on.

As has been true so often since I started following Steve back in the Carpetbagger days, "Phoebes in Santa Fe" is making a LOT of sense. However, one point Steve made in the original post has been ignored. It's not just Paul Ryan who gives us a symbol of the problems the Republicans would bring, but a whole host of Republican crazies. The trouble is simply that most voters may know something about the policies of the parties in general, most people simply don't know what their own Representatives are saying. (I consider myself a political junkie, but I needed to Google a lot to find out what my own representative, Yvette Clarke, has been doing, and she probably has one of the five safest Democratic seats in the country. I know a lot more about what Anthony Weiner, my 'almost Rep' -- his district starts a half dozen blocks from me -- stands for.)

What some Progressive Organization needs to start is "Operation Spotlight" which would go into each district with ads specifically targeted to the candidate, both listing -- where available -- the candidate's crazier statements -- or in other districts to 'spread dissension by challenging the candidates -- particularly where there are Republican primaries -- to embrace or denounce the worst recent Republican spokesman statements.

Thanks for the head's up, Prup. I haven't commented on a lot of blogs lately because I'm just so damn tired of it all. Not tired - or even shocked by - Republican idiocies, but rather by the Dems' ability to shoot ourselves in the feet. (Or whatever the tiresome phrase is.) I mean, I know being an active Dem is like herding cats (a tiresome phrase I do love) in that most Dems have minds of our own and don't play well with others.
Republicans, on the other hand, do present a "united front" to the public, which often likes seeing that.

I think we almost have more to fear from our own actions than Republicans.

Politics is a messy business, full of nuances. We, as Dems, usually see that, but can't present a coherent response to it.

Neil b, first of all there will be NO choice if this goes through. The government will tell us that we have to get insurance and then they will tell us what kind of insurance then how much we will pay and it will be more since we are insuring many more people.
The Docs will be treating us like the Post Office because there will be 31million more people and no competition.
I am a naturized American. My father brought us over here from Germany when I was 8 years old. He brought us becaus it is or was a free country with limited government.
Obama and his buddies seem to want to change all of that and it frightens me. I wanted my children and grandchildren to grow up in a free country where government doesn't own a car company and banks and now they will destroy insurance companies and go into that busniess.
I'm sorry but there are better ways to deal with this .
If this was really about better healthcare insurance and insuring more people then it would be a better bill.
There are none so blind as those that will not see.

"Incumbents weighing retirement might be more inclined to stick around; donors inclined to give up might be more inclined to chip in; lawmakers might even feel a stronger incentive to get some added accomplishments under their belt to improve their chances."

The above statement is the point of this spin piece. Benen is whistling past the graveyard in an effort to lead his readers past their fear. He's doing his little messaging part to help get some leftist items passed into law while they still have the numbers. After all, fearful lame duck politicians don't inspire much of a legislative following seven months out from an election. The truth being something obviously different, his spin doesn't really do anything to mitigate the angst being felt in the Blue Dog world. The energy coming from the right and middle is not abating, but Benen can't know this, because he doesn't mingle with folks of this ilk. Even so, he's got to see the flat pulse of the traditional Democratic base. Loss of the House is approximately 1 in 2 and loss of the Senate is about 1 in 3. Not bad for the GOP which was being characterized as the permanent minority as late as November.

"Democrats of all stripe, get off your asses and get to work. We cannot change the way our country was headed in 14 months, but we can in 24 or 48 months."

I second that wholeheartedly. And it's not just the house races but senate campaigns and others up and down the ballot. Many of those races can and should feed off the house races because they're small enough to be close to the ground in a geographic area and big enough to actually have offices volunteers of all campaigns can coordinate out of.

Electing Obama was just the start. We are the change we've been looking for and we have to do the work. Time to suck it up and get it done. We know what to do. For those who have the time pick out a local candidate and contact them to see how you can help. For those who have the money open your checkbook.

It could be that the American people have been so shell shocked by the arrogance and massive corruption of the Obama administration and the Demcorats in Congress that they aren't registering as much outrage. And this far from the election things can certainly change. Americans may decide that they like the arrogance and corruption that has gone on with total one party control of Congress. The massive corrupt spending and debt are obvious, but the massive taxes and other costs haven't from the corruption haven't hit us yet. If Americans don't restore balance to our Gov in Nov we will be living with the consequences of the arrogance, spending, and corruption for generations!

I am sorry, but you lost me when you mentioned Ezra the GOP wants a holocaust Klein saying things are better.

It's so nice you delusional liberals have a site where you can encourage each other and sing to the choir. First off, many Democrats are highly disappointed because they have found the President to be a flim-flam artist. Secondly, for those of you who have not followed economics, when the stock market begins to tank this summer because it will predict the drop in GDP, this economic recovery will not look too good. As a matter of fact, you would be smart to prepare now for a severe recession in 2011 and 2012. Third, after observing the politicians in Washington D.C. for the past 14 months, the vast majority of voters have already made up their minds. If you follow the most accurate poller since 2000 (Rasmussen) there are very few undecided voters in many races and its looking like a very bad election cycle for the Democrats. DRAFT HILLARY

Buzz@6.25p - why should voters put Republicans back in office? Why? They're the ones with their spend/no tax that got us into this mess in the first place. How can you finance a trillion dollar pair of wars without raising taxes? What happened, Buzz, to the surplus that Clinton handed off to Bush?

No, it took 8 years for the Republicans to fuck this country ten ways to Sunday. And, what are their answers to trying to save what they, themselves, wrecked? Oh, more tax cuts. They have no answers. And reduce spending, unlike their Republican predecessors of the Bush-era, who spent, spent, spent. THESE Republicans, the ones in office NOW are no relation to the Bush ones. Or so they will tell you and hope you're stupid enough to believe it.

Obama and the Dems don't have all the answers, either, but at least they're thinking of ways to fix the mess they were left. They might not be the answers YOU think are right, but yours are the ones that got us into the trouble we're in now.

And, anyone who thinks 8 years of bad governance can be fixed in 14 months is sadly mistaken. But, throwing the Dems out and putting the Republicans back in is just stupid.

November is indeed eight months away. Last month it was nine months away. In July, it will be four months away. Empty partisans on both sides, like Steve Benen on the left, can claim "there's still time" until the election results come in. It makes no difference at this piont. They can keep up their spin up to the day of the election and swear east will be west all they like. That's why they have no credibility.

On the other hand, the polls do tend to shift around, and more time before an election creates more opportunities for new factors to emerge, but looked at in total and specifically, race by race, they're showing something undeniable: Democrats are in deep trouble. Democrat incumbents inching back toward even with their opponents and running at 46% against unknowns isn't a comeback. It's a settling, a leveling. Satan himself would manage 40 or 45% in an election; the partisans split that way. If you're an incumbent who can't break 50% in an election year, going for your third, fifth, or eighth term, you're in trouble.

Passing healthcare will hurt more than help Democrats. Mass. is perhaps the *most* liberal state in the country, and Democrats couldn't replace Ted Kennedy with one of their own. His mantra? "I will kill Obamacare." Every other Democrat agenda item is a loser. Financial reform is going nowhere, and if Democrats think it's their opportunity to look tough on Wall Street, that ship sailed with the bailouts and Obama's loose-money approach to reinflating the real estate bubble and giving massive no-risk profits to the largest of the large banks. Democrats are weilding a sword -- right at their own throats. Chris Dodd -- so crooked he's leaving office rather than be dumped curbside by voters -- as the standard bearer for financial probity is laughable. Even worse, financial reform is dwarfed by the one number that'll be lucky to be near 9% by November: unemployment.

Healthcare and phony populist blathering from Obama may enliven the base, but the base was never going to vote for Republicans anyway. The more important factor in a midterm election (especially this one, with the myths of Obama not attracting young and minority voters to the polls like in 2008) will be independents. Republicans aren't saviors, but for independents in 2010, they won't have to be. All they have to be is non-Democrats.

I'm not seeing it.

People are angry because of a multitude of thing the Democrats are doing, and they aren't things I see them stopping anytime soon.

The health care bill is currently at center stage, but it's not the only thing, and it really isn't leaving if you guys pass it. First, saying people will love it once it's passed is a bit like saying someone will enjoy getting kicked in the head once you're through. Second, once it's passed, the real boots to the head begin. The ten years of taxes for six years of benefits means that for four years people are going to be taxed heavily to pay for this thing, and no one is going to benefit from it. Without that organic constituency, nobody is going to think kindly of it, and everyone is going to hate the added tax load during a downturn. Just as and added "bonus" jacking up expenses during a downturn also happens to be a great way to tank a recovery.

The deficit is another issue that's not going to go away. I live in LA, one of the liberal tax and spend centers of the US, and I'm hearing people talking about the deficit and how bad it is in the halls. Nobody talks politics where I work, it's the ultimate taboo, on par with discussing venereal diseases over lunch. Yet, here they are talking it in the halls. What more, they're talking about it in the "Oh my God, we're all going to die," tone of voice. People are freaked out by the debt load we're running. Does anyone expect the current congress to turn into deficit hawks one the health care bill is over? Considering they're already talking about another round of bailouts, I strongly doubt it.

Finally, there is the disdain factor. This congress has spent to past year telling people to shut up and sit down when they weren't enamored of its policy initiatives. The bailouts, the auto take-over, the health care bill, all of those faced wide scale public opposition that was simply ignored, or belittled. About the only major legislation where they didn't actively antagonize their constituents was Cash for Clunkers, and that one was just silly. Does anyone serious believe that after more than a year of ignoring everyone elses' opinions, that the Democrats are suddenly going to start listening to the people they work for?

Do you?

Your primary argument is if the Dems pass health care and the economy picks up a little, they'll be OK. Here's the flaws with that logic:

1) The majority of voters don't like the health care reform package. The best thing that can happen to the Dems is to NOT pass it. If they do, the voter backlash will be massive.

2) The only economic recovery that matters to voters is jobs. Stock market growth, GDP improvement, strength of the dollar, trade balance, etc. may all improve but mean nothing to the average person if they don't have good jobs. Job creation has to be strong a good six months prior to an election for the media to be reporting an economic turnaround and people to believe it's real. That's just not going to happen.

I think it's a stretch for Republicans to recapture control of either House, but Democrats are going to loss an awful lot of seats.

If the neo marxist ram this horrific Health Care take over down the throats of an unwilling public they are slitting their own throats.

They underestimate the the damage they are doing to themselves, and the country.

Let's see... higher taxes, higher energy prices, vast increases in government size and cost, massive government borrowing, printing money, increased regulation, increased unionism, tolerance for corruption and government micromanagement of virtually everything.

What could possibly go wrong with the Democrat plan for American prosperity????

Anyone who believes the Democrats are not in serious trouble is spending way too much time in the DC area.

Democrats are dreaming if they think the voters will forget how angry they are about the hideous way Obama and the Dems have conducted themselves in the past year.

The old adage: Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me comes to mind. Not that many will be fooled a second time into supporting Democrats after what they have seen Dems do when given the people's trust.

No amount of "Republicans are just as bad" can cover up the stink left by Obama, Reid and Pelosi.

Democrats were all in after August. There is a warfare aspect to this that the author rightly points out. You stay together, accept some losses and hold your ground, or you pull back which will suffer the same or worse amount of losses while giving up everything you worked for.

Captiulation is not an option. They tried that in 94 and look how it worked out. If they're going to lose, dems might as well accomplish something rather than nothing. Reagan used to say when given the choice between a democrat and a republican who acts like a democrat, people will choose the real thing. Same thing goes here. All democrats who haven't already opposed health care, and even some who have, are going to feel the wrath of every angry republican in their district. Dems will not be forgiven, even if they do a complete turnaround.

I care about health care reform more than I care about democratic political fortunes. The best chances that I see for reform are 1) pass it now and fix the parts that aren't so great, which is the current plan, or 2) hope a moderate republican like Romney or Bob Dole takes leadership of the issue and beats Obama in 2012.

Given how much the republican base hates the idea of helping the uninsured, I find the 2nd scenario unlikely. Someone like Romney will have a hell of a time getting through their primaries. He will have to answer for Romneycare, which will likely hurt him badly. In case of failure, the likely scenario would be that they pass some band-aid fixes like COBRA and HIPAA that do absolutely nothing toward solving the long term problems.

joe, as a matter of fact, the majority of the country does like healtcare reform: just see the polling on questions like denial of coverage for pre-existing conditions.

what the majority of the country doesn't like includes "death panels" and other lies along those lines; of course, those elements aren't actually part of health-care access reform.

and you are, of course, confused about the importance of what the majority of the country thinks wrt elections: it has been a very long time since a majority of the country even bothered to vote in mid-term elections. what matters is what motivates voters to come to the polls.

rocky, you're another ill-informed type (we are surrounded by them it appears). health-care reform REDUCES the projected deficit. more broadly, if you're concerned about fiscal propriety, then there is no chance that you should ever, ever vote for a republican again: we have 40 years of very clear evidence: when democrats control the white house and congress, we behave fiscally responsibly. when the gop controls some or all of those, we don't. (and yes, running a deficit during a mammoth recession is fiscally responsible: what wasn't responsible was running a deficit during a growth period, which, of course, the republicans have done every time they've had a chance).

and then we have connie, to whom i can only say that if you are as confused as you appear to be regarding obama and the democrats, perhaps you should relocate somewhere else: you obviously don't understand your current country at all.