March 19, 2010
AND THEN THERE WERE FIVE.... Following up on an item from this morning, if the House is going to pass health care reform, proponents are going to need to convince some lawmakers who voted against it in November to support it now. The "no to yes" push is absolutely critical.
Wednesday, we saw our first switch (Ohio's Dennis Kucinich). Thursday, we learned of two more (Tennessee's Bart Gordon and Colorado's Betsy Markey). This morning, a fourth made the switch (Ohio's John Boccieri), and this afternoon, Blue Dog Rep. Allen Boyd (D) of Florida became the fifth.
The Monticello Democrat said he studied the revised bill and the Congressional Budget Office report on its costs and benefits. He said "it's not perfect" but that the package meets the four criteria he set forth in a series of 16 meetings across the 2nd Congressional District last summer.
Boyd said the overall plan will preserve patient choice of insurance plans and doctors, will improve access to coverage for about 50 million Americans and will be "deficit-neutral." The fourth criteria, slowing the rise of medical costs, was the main thing that caused him to vote against the bill a few months ago, but Boyd said he thinks the new version will do that.
Boyd said 194,000 households in North Florida will be eligible to get coverage through insurance exchanges. He said small-business tax credits will benefit 15,400 businesses in his district, which runs from the Suwannee-Columbia County line to the southeastern corner of Okaloosa County.
"My decision has been based from the very beginning on the substance of this policy," said Boyd. "It's been my belief that good policy equals good politics."
Boyd, it's worth noting, has long been one of the caucus' most conservative Dems, and five years ago, he was the only House Dem to express support for the Bush Social Security privatization plan. This year, he's facing a primary challenger, who's emphasized Boyd's vote against health care reform last November.
His endorsement of the reform plan, then, is a pretty big deal, and gives the legislation another boost at a key time.
Also this afternoon:
* Rep. Joseph Cao (R-La.) told CNN, "Right now, I'm a firm no." The first half of that sentence doesn't really match the second, but I'd be surprised if he supports the bill when the roll is called.
* Rep. Tom Periello (D-Va.) voted for reform in November, and officially announced his continued support today. He's been under intense pressure to switch, and his decision comes as a relief to the leadership.
* Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) has repeatedly said he's undecided, but told MSNBC earlier that he's "leaning much more in favor now that the CBO score is out."
* Reps. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) and Dina Titus (D-Nev.) both voted for reform in November, but were considered on the fence now. Both said today they will support the bill.
* Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), a key pro-life Democratic vote, has been leaning "no," but now appears to be leaning "yes."
* Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass), in an unusually ridiculous display that puts his career in jeopardy, voted "yes" in November, but has dug in his heels as a "no" now.
* Rep. Heath Shuler (D-Tenn.) was a "no" and is still a "no."
* Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) has been a solid "yes," but is having a freak-out over a Medicare reimbursement provision in the sidecar, and is threatening to vote "no." The leadership thinks it'll work out with him.
Am I missing anyone?
—Steve Benen 4:35 PM
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Heath Shuler is a (D - NC). You are flashing back to his glorious college football career.
Posted by: jbj on March 19, 2010 at 4:35 PM | PERMALINK
Cox News reporter, Bob Keefe, reported on AJC.com that Georgia Congressman Sanford Bishop is a yes. Don't know if he was in doubt or just being coy. John Barrow is still being chicken.
Posted by: Th on March 19, 2010 at 4:41 PM | PERMALINK
Though not my district, Rep. Tom Periello (D-Va.) is one amazing bright and brilliant voice in our crazy, backwards Commonwealth. He has repeatedly shown himself to be a man of the people, even despite the fact that the most vocal and ill-informed of them have been savaging his office with Tea Baggery. he represents a district that is one of the most unhealthy and uninsured in the country. That's real class, people.
I wish I could vote for him.
Posted by: chrenson on March 19, 2010 at 4:42 PM | PERMALINK
What's missing is a 'public option'.
No option No mandates,that's what is going to kill the Dems in the next election.
Posted by: par4 on March 19, 2010 at 4:45 PM | PERMALINK
Shuler reps his NC constituents no better than he would TN ones. He's a corporate puppet, a DINO, and has little understanding and much less sympathy for working people.
It's just that typical Repugs like Vampire Virginia Fox and plump little ferret Patrick McHenry make him look like Jeebus... Shuler ought to wake up and get some real courage -- not the silly game kind..
Posted by: neill on March 19, 2010 at 4:45 PM | PERMALINK
I'm wondering about Kagen. A few days ago, you posted that he was wavering. Washington Post claims he's still undecided. I can't get through to his office right now.
Posted by: Margaret on March 19, 2010 at 4:49 PM | PERMALINK
Again, any Democratic Congressional Representative voting no on this landmark legislation is at best a political neophyte, and at worse, merely a fool! -Kevo
Posted by: kevo on March 19, 2010 at 4:49 PM | PERMALINK
Does anyone know about Nick Rahall, WV-3? The Post lists him as a Yes in Nov. and today as an undecided.
Posted by: ksr on March 19, 2010 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK
Lipinski, the Gunga Din of the Chicago Archdiocese,is still holding out when so many anti abortion Dems are falling into line. He's in a safe district, with a built in name recognition from all the years his old man was in Congress.
He has his seat for as long as he wants, yet he's more concerned about the fine print of the Senate bill than he is about the health and well being of his constituents. The guy is a disaster, and it's a shame that I live in his district where I always have to leave the Congressional ballot blank.
Posted by: tommyudo on March 19, 2010 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK
Rep. Joseph Cao (R-La.) told CNN, "Right now, I'm a firm no." The first half of that sentence doesn't really match the second, but I'd be surprised if he supports the bill when the roll is called.
Let me translate this, Rep. Cao is going to vote with the majority, whichever way the decision goes.* And there's going to be a clear sign for this: Rep Cao is going to be one of the last ones to cast his vote.
* Which, if you're in his shoes makes sense: If the Dems can't pass this, why should he stick out his neck and defy the GOP House leadership. Towards his constituents he will be able to say that HCR failed because too many D's opposed it.
If the Dems appear able to pass it, Rep Cao won't have the cover of that argument towards his constituents and will have to decide what will cost him more, antagonizing the majority among his constituents, and thereby jeopardizing his chances of reelection, or antagonizing the leadership of his party. We know which side of this dilemma he came down on last time. My reading of his waffling is that nothing much has changed for him.
Posted by: eserwe on March 19, 2010 at 5:02 PM | PERMALINK
Altmire (PA) still stuck on "no" (according to TPM)
Posted by: exlibra on March 19, 2010 at 5:12 PM | PERMALINK
Oh, and Chrenson, @16:42
Ditto vis Periello. Like, you, I'm stuck with Bitter Brew (not-so-Goodlatte) and turn pond-scum-green with envy every time I see/hear Periello. Of course, Charlottesville is not Lextropolis... Sigh...
Posted by: exlibra on March 19, 2010 at 5:15 PM | PERMALINK
@ chenson:
I second everything you say about Tom Perriello and the Fifth District of VA. He is an incredibly smart, honest, principled, courageous, and dedicated congressman. (He was magnificent in handling the townhall fear-mongers last summer--and had more sessions, I think, than any other member of Congress.) If he survives the Republican/teabagger onslaught he will have a great career as a progressive champion.
Fortunately I live in his district and will work and vote for his reelection. Thanks, Tom!
Posted by: JM917 on March 19, 2010 at 5:18 PM | PERMALINK
I wasn't too worried earlier when Periello was listed as undecided. (I'm in VA but not in his district, but I tried to call anyway; was unable to get through.) He is one of the few who is truly there to do what he believes will be best for his constituents and the country, and willing to risk that in our climate of pervasive misinformation, they may not see it that way.
I think he has a good chance of being reelected, because there are in fact a lot of people who admire a congressman who does his job with integrity and intelligence rather than just trying to figure out what everyone will like best. And because Republicans in his district are factionalized, massively corrupt, and in many cases apparently too ignorant to learn how to run for office.
Posted by: Redshift on March 19, 2010 at 5:24 PM | PERMALINK
All Democrats who vote against this bill should be primaried. They are not representing the people.
Posted by: Bonnie on March 19, 2010 at 5:38 PM | PERMALINK
I'm in Altmire's district in PA and was at a town hall meeting he held a couple of months ago. I had actively supported his candidacy, drumming up votes for him, during which he had promised to be more "thoughtful" than Melissa Hart (the incumbent Altmire defeated). But his true colors came out at the town hall meeting. I would be very very surprised (pleasantly so) if he changes to a yes vote. His priorities are just all wrong. He will bow to whoever puts the most pressure on him and then rationalize it. I think he is a lost cause and have told him so. I will never vote for him again.
Posted by: moi on March 19, 2010 at 5:49 PM | PERMALINK
"All Democrats who vote against this bill should be primaried."
Absolutely. And if there are a few less Dems in the house, what's the difference, if the one's we lose are one's that vote with the GOP anyway.
I'll go further: unless it appears that the GOP will win a majority, I'd angrily vote for the GOP guy against any Dem that votes no on this. That'll get the Dem out, and maybe we can get a better one two years later.
Next week the headlines will either read: "Dems score a huge victory, most productive Congress since LBJ" or "Dems and Obama go down to flaming defeat". Any Dem that helps the second headline happen deserves what they get.
30+ million Americans who will get insurance are depending on this.
(Although, admittedly, I'm a bit nervous about having a mandate for everybody, without a public option)
Posted by: A DC Wonk on March 19, 2010 at 5:53 PM | PERMALINK
And if there are a few less Dems in the house, what's the difference, if the one's we lose are one's that vote with the GOP anyway.
As a practical matter it is pretty hard to set the legislative agenda from the minority. We're much better off with unreliable blue-dogs than GOP reps.
Posted by: AK Liberal on March 19, 2010 at 6:11 PM | PERMALINK
Another no to yes...
Scott Murphy of NY.
Posted by: And on March 19, 2010 at 7:19 PM | PERMALINK
Kratovil in MD01 is still a "no" according to the Washington Post. He's a Blue Dog but little better than the moderate Republican he replaced. Still better than the drooling right wing loon that beat the moderate Repub in the GOP primary but pretty much a DINO. If I wanted a Republican, I would have voted for one.
Posted by: DefenseLiberal on March 19, 2010 at 7:34 PM | PERMALINK
Me thinks Lynchy is going to be in trouble back home in MA. What the heck is he thinking??
Posted by: mishanti on March 19, 2010 at 8:14 PM | PERMALINK
After a dozen or two busy signals, I managed to get through to Perriello's office early this afternoon, to encourage him to stay the course. I'm not in his district, but mentioned that I used to live there. (OK, that was 25 years ago, when I was in grad school at U-Va., but I didn't go into that much detail!)
I don't know if my one phone call had any modest effect on Perriello's decision or not, but hearing this news makes me glad I put in the effort to get through.
Also got through to Rick Boucher's office (lived in his SW VA district for 5 years a bit more recently); last I heard, he was still undecided, after being a 'no' in November.
Even if he doesn't come around, there are plenty of other good reasons for SW Virginians to vote for Boucher.
Per Nate Silver's ratings from just before Christmas, Boucher is the fourth most valuable House Democrat relative to the PVI of his district. And due to its being off the 2009 legislative calendar, the area of Boucher's greatest value to progressives - his telecom policy expertise and generally progressive stances, especially his strong advocacy of Net neutrality - wasn't included in Nate's assessment.
Whenever either Boucher retires or a Republican finally knocks him off, we'll never get a single decent vote from a Republican from that district. So he's miles better than the potential alternative.
I expect he'll be one of the folks that Pelosi gives a pass to vote 'no' to, if she can pass the bill without him. Which is looking more probable all the time, fortunately. He's apparently got a pretty strong GOP challenger this year.
Posted by: low-tech cyclist on March 19, 2010 at 9:59 PM | PERMALINK
Mitchell(AZ-5) voted yes in the earlier bill and said he would vote yes now. Hallelujah!
Posted by: warren terrah on March 19, 2010 at 10:56 PM | PERMALINK
Currently, Connie Saltonstall's Act Blue pages have raised $57,446 from 1,307 people, to help run a primary against Bart Stupak. (As of Wednesday, she was reportedly still collecting the 1000 signatures needed to get on the ballot.) I read in OpenSecrets* that Stupak had a war chest of $471k with $275k still on hand, so she's far from competitive, but with luck she's approaching being worrisome. It may well be true that his seat will go either to him or to a Republican and I'm usually in favor of the big tent approach, but this would seem to be a fight that's worth losing.
*From http://www.opensecrets.org/races/indus.php?cycle=2010&id=MI01, Stupak has money coming in not huge amounts from a large variety of sources.
By comparison, from http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2010&id=SC02: in the last year, Joe Wilson (of "You Lie" notoriety) raised $3.4 million with $2.3M on hand, while Rob Miller raised $2M, with $1.7M still on hand.
Posted by: N.Wells on March 20, 2010 at 12:24 AM | PERMALINK
Whether or not you live in their districts, call the following Congresspeople (who are either undecided or are progressives who are considering opposing the legislation) and ask them to vote in favor of health care reform so that we can finally begin fixing our broken health care system.
Zack Space - Ohio (Zanesville, Dover, Chillicothe) - (202) 225-6265
Marcy Kaptur - Ohio (Toledo) - (202) 225-4146
Bill Foster - Illinois (Batavia, Dixon, Geneseo) - (202) 225-2976
Kathy Dahlkemper - Pennsylvania (Erie) - (202) 225-5406
Chris Carney - Pennsylvania (Clarks Summit, Shamokin, Williamsport) - (202) 225-3731
Melissa Bean - Illinois (Schaumburg) - (202) 225-3711
Steve Driehaus - Ohio (Cincinnati) - (202) 225-2216
Jim Matheson - Utah (South Salt Lake, St. George, Price) - (202) 225-3011
Stephen Lynch - Massachusetts (Brockton, Boston) - 202-225-8273
Peter DeFazio - Oregon (Eugene, Roseburg, Coos Bay) - 202.225.6416
Michael Arcuri - New York (Utica, Auburn, Cortland) - (202)225-3665
Rick Boucher - Virginia (Abingdon, Pulaski, Big Stone Gap) - 202-225-3861
Henry Cuellar - Texas (San Antonia, Laredo, Rio Grande City) - 202-225-1640
John Tanner - Tennessee (Union City, Jackson, Millington) - 202-225-4714
Glenn Nye - Virginia (Virginia Beach, Accomac) - (202) 225-4215
Brian Baird - Washington (Vancouver, Olympia) - (202) 225-3536
Dan Lipinski - Illinois (LaGrange, Oak Lawn, Chicago’s southwest side) - (202) 225 - 5701
Joe Donnelly - Indiana (South Bend, LaPorte, Michigan City, Kokomo) - (202) 225-3915
Marion Barry - Arkansas (Jonesboro, Cabot, Mountain Home) - (202) 225-4076
Harry Teague - New Mexico (Hobbs, Las Cruces, Socorro, Los Lunas, Roswell) - (202) 225-2365
Jerry Costello - Illinois (Carbondale, Belleville, E. St. Louis, Granite City, Chester) - (202) 225-5661
John Barrow - Georgia (Savannah, Augusta, Vidalia, Milledgeville, Sandersville) - (202) 225-2823
Nick Rahall - West Virginia (Beckley, Bluefield, Huntington, Logan) - (202) 225-3452
Solomon Ortiz - Texas (Corpus Christi, Brownsville) - (202) 225-7742
Posted by: Moses2317 on March 20, 2010 at 12:34 AM | PERMALINK
Periello is quoted extensively in George Packer's New Yorker article "Obama's Lost Year", and is very sharp.
Posted by: bob h on March 20, 2010 at 7:33 AM | PERMALINK