The Washington Monthly

March 23, 2010

NOT ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL.... Most of us probably think about domestic political victories and their impact on domestic political standing. But in our media era, and with international observers keeping a close eye on U.S. political developments, the effects of health care reform may be even broader than they appear at first glance.

Laura Rozen and Ben Smith have a terrific item on a part of the debate that's gone largely overlooked.

When Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu faced off with President Barack Obama over housing in Jerusalem earlier this month, he was facing a distracted American leader whose presidency hung in the balance.
When he goes to the White House on Tuesday night, he'll find Obama at the moment of his administration's greatest success, a shift that may affect Obama's negotiating power in ways both subtle and dramatic.

Obama's health care victory may prove a decisive pivot point in the way he is viewed both domestically and abroad and in how powerful a negotiator he is perceived to be by foreign leaders. And nowhere is that true more than in Israel, a place obsessed with American politics.

"Every time I met with an Arab diplomat or anyone from the Middle East, including Israelis, they would invariably ask me, 'How's health care going?'" said former Rep. Robert Wexler (D-Fla.), who retired in December to become president of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace. "And the first couple [of] times, I didn't really realize what they were actually asking. They were asking, 'How strong is the president of the United States?'"

Global players base their U.S. interactions, at least in part, on their perceptions of presidential standing. If the American head of state is perceived as weak -- faltering domestic support, stalled legislative agenda -- friend and foe alike will take those cues seriously. If the chief executive is perceived as strong, that matters, too.

And in this case, the world really was watching the U.S. debate over health care reform. Mexican President Felipe Calderone and Saudi King Abdullah actually called Obama yesterday to congratulate him on his policy breakthrough. Rozen and Smith added that a European diplomat suggested success on the White House's top domestic policy "would quell global doubts about the young American president."

As this relates to Israel, in particular, Netanyahu's advisers have been saying, "We just need to wait [Obama] out," assuming his presidency was in decline, and would end in three years.

Wexler said that if that was the basis for Netanyahu's thinking, "I think that strategy today is dead."

—Steve Benen 10:50 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (11)

Comments

Great stuff! Really sums up the connections so well. Unfortunately most of the American media doesn't pay much attention to anything that happens outside the U.S. and the importance of how we're viewed.

Posted by: lisaintexas on March 23, 2010 at 10:53 AM | PERMALINK

I wouldn't use the words "Netanyahu" and "thinking" in the same sentence, myself.

Posted by: Steve LaBonne on March 23, 2010 at 10:56 AM | PERMALINK

Netanyahu is the Stupak of the Middle East.

I would hope that any "executive order" to neutralize Netanyahu will be, uh, shall we say less welcomed than the one Bart got. Benjamin ought to get an executive dictation of how it's gonna be...

If a kinda crappy health care bill puts Obama in position to do that then it's a hell of a lot more than a twofer...

Posted by: neill on March 23, 2010 at 11:05 AM | PERMALINK

Frankly, I can't believe any Israeli PM would be foolish enough to think they could "wait out" an American president--just based on the usual frequency of Israeli elections and their much more volatile parliamentary system.
But Netanyahu might actually be that dumb. Although I think things would be easier if he wasn't dependent on right wing radicals in order to maintain his governing coalition.

Posted by: Allan Snyder on March 23, 2010 at 11:15 AM | PERMALINK

This is why al Qaeda tunes into FOX News and listens to fifth column Republican Party talking points -- they are waiting for the signal to attack when President Obama is deemed weakest.

Osama Bin Laden is nearly as crestfallen as John Boehner that healthcare reform passed.

Posted by: John Thullen on March 23, 2010 at 11:56 AM | PERMALINK

GOD I despise the Zionist Likudnik neocons. No greater obstacle to peace and stability exists in the Middle East than this unholy cabal of racists and hatemongers. A virulent POX on all their houses.

What were the Israeli people thinking when they voted in these amoral mongrels? Did they learn NOTHING from watching our unmitigated disaster with the evil, demented neocons Cheney and Bush?

Posted by: J. Paul Ghetto on March 23, 2010 at 12:09 PM | PERMALINK

As the post details, it wasn't just Israeli but Arab, Middle Eastern and European doubts.

By talking up "bipartisanship" and not using threats of reconciliation Obama enabled a situation where he got rolled by Joe Lieberman.

For the rest of the world, droopy cheeks Lieberman doesn't exactly draw fear in anyone's heart.

Letting *that* happen doesn't and shouldn't inspire confidence. Especially to others who are also in command of national armies or in some sort of armed conflict.

For the sake of national security concerns alone, it was probably beneficial that Scott Brown won and forced the POTUS to wake the f*** up.

Posted by: Observer on March 23, 2010 at 12:13 PM | PERMALINK

"Netanyahu is the Stupak of the Middle East."

No, Netanyahu is the George W. Bush of the Middle East. And we ought to treat him accordingly. Because if we don't, we're about to find ourselves stuck in the mother of all diplomatic quagmires. Seriously - it's tough to find a bigger supporter of Israel than me, but they are way, way out of line right now, and it feels a whole lot like one of those crises one ought to turn into opportunities.

Posted by: Cazart on March 23, 2010 at 12:47 PM | PERMALINK

If anyone represents "take the long view" in international relations, it strikes me that's the definition of Bibi Netanyahu, whose whole career benefits from that thinking. Short term volatility up or down is probably of little interest to him, nor does it change the basic issue that underscores the failure of the peace process: Israel will never agree to anything that divides Jerusalem. Until many young progressives - who seem to have invested the peace process with a renewed wishful zeal - understand that central conflict, much of the discussion we're having in this country lacks context and comprehension. Netanyahu, believe me, is never going to budge on that, nor on choices that extend and enlarge Israel's say in the matters related to it (i.e.... settlements in East Jerusalam make it harder, not easier to draw a bright line).

The idea that a President Obama, enjoying a hard won domestic success, somehow has more leverage is, in the long view, unrealistic. Natnayahu may not be able to wait out an Obama Presidency (though I think who's left standing between them is an open question in 2013)... but Israel, certainly, can. And they probably will.

Posted by: weboy on March 23, 2010 at 1:20 PM | PERMALINK

Demographics suggest that simply playing a waiting game isn't going to work out for Israel, weboy.

Posted by: dob on March 23, 2010 at 1:26 PM | PERMALINK

None of this actually means anything. The US will make a lot of sound and fury while Israel keeps building on the West Bank.

Posted by: Monty on March 23, 2010 at 1:44 PM | PERMALINK