If American voters can remain calm, cool, collected and unperturbed in light of Republican efforts to inject unthinking emotion into their compaign strategies, the Dems should be able to hold on to both majorities.

In order to combat the Republican strategy, Dems need to passionately hammer away at their efforts to solve problems, while sustaining the narrative of the Republicans as apologists for corporate abuse, obstructionists in government, and in general, the party of No! -Kevo

"If the Republican base assumes a House takeover is in the bag, the party may grow complacent."

without a puppetmaster, they're but rags.

Hey Pete, this loogie's for you.

Why would anyone think they were better at picking candidates than they are at picking issue positions? The crazies are in control on both fronts.

I really doubt that the enthusiasm is really there as much for the GOP as the media makes it out to be. MA was an outlier which had as much to do with Martha Coakley's negatives as Scott Brown's positives. The Dems have a better campaign organization and more reality-based messaging. If Congress can pile up enough accomplishments and the GOP stays crazy, the Dems will win moderates and independents and hold their majorities even as they lose 2-3 Senate seats and maybe 20 max House seats.

The Republicans bet on the economy going to hell and staying there. Well it went to hell, but it is coming back. Obama has proven himself to be a pretty good navigator. The Democratic base was supposed to be demoralized, cowering. They aren't. This isn't going to be the sea change election of the type seen in 1994 and 2002. This is going to be a dog fight. Republicans don't have many good dogs in the fight. Hell, who is the face of the Tea Party Movement anyway, a little old lady in a straw hat festooned with tea bags. Do we really want to turn the government over to little old ladies in straw hats and the same obstructionist clowns who screwed things up the last time.

The Republicans need to stop whipping up their base and to focus on doing something to earn the trust and respect of the American people.

If the GOP hopes for a takeover, they're going to need candidates who can do a bit more than holler, "Yah! Yah! Obammy!! Socialism!! Woooo!"

I think the GOP will do a lot worse then most beltway folks think because it's not like the 2000-2008 of Republican incompetence is a distant memory. The problem is the media will play the GOP's moving the goalpost game and frame ANY Republican gains as a repudiation of Obama's "left wing, overreaching government".

Democrats can lose seats but still win the cycle.

Even the GOP-message-friendly Congressional analysts ("Democrats In Disarray! We just love how that rolls off the tongue!") are starting to back off talk of a GOP takeover of one of the chambers.

If the Dems can keep House-seat losses to 20 or fewer -- basically, the GOP getting back seats it never should have lost in the first place -- they will win the cycle there.

And in the Senate? If the Republicans snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against Reid? Crist wins and caucuses with the Dems, flipping that seat? I think the Dems can win in Kentucky and North Carolina.

That won't be another 1994 for the GOP. It will be another '98, and like Gingrich did, someone in the high leadership will have to pay.

Why would McCarthy use 45 seats as a benchmark a few months ago, and use 37 now?

Would you believe "it's the first step in preparing the GOP faithful for another episode of GOP-gets-bitch-slapped?"

Agree with Ron Byers -- the GOP DID bet that the economy would tank. But they also made a Faustian bargain with the Tea Bag Party extremists. Presumably, the GOP based the latter decision on generic polls showing the Republicans as polling far ahead of the Democrats. The problem is that, come November, electors won't be voting for generic candidates; rather, those candidates will have names and faces and policy positions. And therein lies the rub: those positions are beyond bizarre, they are simply unacceptable to the majority of American voters (e.g., Rand Paul and Sue Lowden). The more these candidates talk, and the more people find out about them, the less attractive they become. IMHO, the Democrats may wind up actually picking up seats in the House and the Senate.

NRCC STOPS MEASURING THE DRAPES

Argh. You don't measure the drapes. You measure the windows for new drapes.

To add one thought: if the GOP leadership has indeed based their entire strategy [the whole series of obstructions to legislation, the nasty criticizing of Obama and his administration in unheard of extremist terms, the betting on his failure to pass legislation, right the economy, and deal with terrorist threats] on generic polling of Dems vs Reps, then they are both intellectually and politically stupid.

In the face of Obama's unheralded campaign success against the formidable Clintons, one wonders how they could place this bet against him? It may mean that they cannot even begin to conceive that someone of his profile (Democrat, mixed race, young) could succeed. More's the pity for them.

We need to keep accusing them of wanting to impeach Obama. We have every reason to nationalize this election to a choice between Obama (the most popular political actor) and the House GOP (the least popular political actors.) You and I and everyone else knows that if they get the House Majority they will impeach Obama for something or another. That's what they did before and the fact that GWB was elected in 2000 makes them think it was a smart thing to do.
Do you think that Obama has committed impeachable offenses? It's a classic wedge issue.

Wow, Buchanan lost, too? Now that is sweet revenge. She thought she was all that and a bag of chips instead of one of the most clueless and corrupt hacks of all time, so her crushing defeat is extremely satisfying.

The NRCC is almost moot now anyway, a Rove shadow operation is perhaps more significant. See Rolling Stone:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/;kw=%5B3351,149864%5D

Boehner's problem is that while there are many voters dissatisfied with their Democratic incumbents, their only other choice is a Republican.

And what happens in November when the Republicans fall short in both chambers? I'm guessing Macho Mitch and Boehner will be out. I can't imagine the Republicans will change their modus operandi, however.

Expectations were far too high after Scott Brown, and now the GOP has to backtrack. They can't afford to keep expectations high and then disappoint. If they did that the base would lose heart and they'd be in the hinterlands for the next 3 election cycles.

as commentor Fra Diavolo points out "electors won't be voting for generic candidates." i'd just add, that i've never seen a generic house poll with regional crosstabs...i suspect that the gop leads the south by thirty points....if i'm right that means that when the poll is tied the democrats lead outside the south by double digits...and some of the gop's "takeover" is beyond wishful thinking...just saw someone thinking the democrats could lose five seats in ohio...ain't gonna happen...zack space might get dumped but that's because he voted against health care...and the open senate seat there is the democrats number one pick up opportunity