Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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June 4, 2010

GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS IN MONTHLY JOB TOTALS.... After a crushing recession that created an unemployment crisis, it's tempting to feel good about the turnaround in the monthly job totals. Whereas the economy was hemorrhaging jobs a year ago at this time, we now have our heads above water.

But given expectations, today's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely strike many as disappointing.

Employers added 431,000 nonfarm jobs nationwide in May, the biggest increase in a single month since the recession, the Labor Department said Friday. But the bulk of the growth was in government jobs, driven by hiring for the Census, and private-sector job growth was weak.

The unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent nationwide, from 9.9 percent in April, the department said. [...]

The net gain in government jobs was 390,000, while the private sector added only 41,000.

There were numerous reports going into the day suggesting the overall total would top 500,000 new jobs, and that private sector job growth would total about 200,000. The report showed the economy falling short on both counts. Indeed, growth in private payrolls slowed to its lowest point since last year.

What's more, the new monthly total comes with a key caveat: census jobs. In May, the Census Bureau's hiring reached its peak, inflating the total monthly numbers to a point that will almost certainly go unmatched the rest of the year.

And with stimulus money reaching its end, and fewer Census jobs being added, the economy will have to rely on private-sector hiring to keep the economic recovery going. In May, this sector of the economy was underwhelming.

Here's hoping this report sends a very loud signal to policymakers: more investment in job creation is necessary.

The job numbers for March and April were revised, but didn't change much. While previous estimates showed the economy adding 230,000 jobs in March, the revised total was a gain of 208,000. April's 290,000 new jobs remained the same.

Once again, here's the homemade chart I run on the first Friday of every month, showing monthly job losses since the start of the Great Recession. The image makes a distinction -- red columns point to monthly job totals under the Bush administration, while blue columns point to job totals under the Obama administration.

mayjobs.jpg

Steve Benen 8:55 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (21)

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I have read that productivity numbers are still improving, not good if you are looking for businesses to hire new workers.

Posted by: Ron Byers on June 4, 2010 at 9:04 AM | PERMALINK

The key point is that there's no double dip (at least, not yet). Productivity numbers are actually good news - the pattern is that businesses wait to see if things are going well (which shows up as higher output per worker currently employed), then once things look sustainable they start hiring more people.

The whole thing, of course, as I'm sure the pundits will tell us in a moment, is good news for Republicans.

Posted by: Basilisc on June 4, 2010 at 9:09 AM | PERMALINK

disappointing as the slow growth may be, tenous as the private employment figures may be, and as painful as the economy remains for the millions of unemployed and their families, this monthly graph still makes the ultimate electoral choice astoundingly obvious.

you can have the Red trend line.
or you can have the Blue trend line.
Vote for the trend line you think is better.

Posted by: zeitgeist on June 4, 2010 at 9:11 AM | PERMALINK

The plan to indoctrinate the citizenry into believing that 10% unemployment is the new norm is working smoothly. The corporate masters are pleased.

Posted by: neill on June 4, 2010 at 9:11 AM | PERMALINK

I wish Democrats had the balls to take it to Republicans on the need for another stimulus bill. They have said that there aren't the votes for it, it's 'politically charged', etc. But they just happily and with little problem passed a defense funding bill, so it would seem that a concerted, full-court press on how successful the last stimulus was--albeit too small, as we now see (and many predicted then)--and thus why we need another.

But mention of 'balls' and 'Democrats' in the same sentence is, of course, laughable.

Posted by: terraformer on June 4, 2010 at 9:13 AM | PERMALINK

Take away the temporary census jobs and you have a net loss.

Sheesh

Posted by: getaclue on June 4, 2010 at 9:13 AM | PERMALINK

"Here's hoping this report sends a very loud signal to policymakers: more investment in job creation is necessary."

Actually, here's hoping that Republican policymakers take the signal -- which we know they won't. Even as Democratic lawmakers have introduced job-creation bill after job-creation bill, REPUBLICANS have put holds on the bills, stalled the bills with procedural bullshit, misrepresented the bills to their constituents and all other manner of nonsense, while at the same timewailing that the Democratic majority isn't doing anything about creating jobs.

It's really disgraceful, but what's more infuriating is that at the same time, the GOP has been able to convince too many voters that Republicans, who got us into this mess, are the only ones who can get us out of it, USING THE VERY SAME TACTICS THAT GOT US INTO IT!

Posted by: June on June 4, 2010 at 9:25 AM | PERMALINK

Take away the temporary census jobs and you have a net loss

I'm sure the people with those temporary jobs would be thrilled to have them taken away.

Posted by: GornokonVonFuckStick on June 4, 2010 at 9:31 AM | PERMALINK

"I'm sure the people with those temporary jobs would be thrilled to have them taken away."

They haven't a choice, since the census jobs are merely temporary anyway, what's your point?

My point is that they have included census jobs in their figures, hence the rise. The actual job numbers? Net loss and dropping by the minute. Wait till mid-July when the full force of BP's conduct hits; when millions lose their unemployment benfits; when food shortages caused by a mixture of skyrocketing fuel prices and dead Gulf fishing (ruined for at least 20 years) begin to affect even the employed.

Posted by: getaclue on June 4, 2010 at 9:36 AM | PERMALINK

48000 temporary Census jobs nationwide

Hannity and Malkin represented three of the top ten replies to the filter
"temporary census jobs hired nationwide"

I sense you are being influenced by the Obama hate rhetoric which has included just about everything , except something helpful , or energising for America .
How is the "Hating America" working thing , working out for the culture of ignorance and defeat ?
Don't bother telling me for every job provided that is not from a crony capitalist , a kitten is horribly tortured . Unlike a broken clock , I won't fall for that twice a day .

Posted by: FRP on June 4, 2010 at 9:55 AM | PERMALINK

Census jobs accounted for an increase of 411,000 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm.

So, no, if you take away the Census jobs, there would NOT be a net loss. Private Sector jobs increased so that means other (non-Census) government jobs went down. Shouldn't the government hating tea bagging set look at that as good news?

Posted by: TJH on June 4, 2010 at 10:12 AM | PERMALINK

According to Reuters, "The Labor Department said on Friday payrolls rose 431,000 as the government hired 411,000 workers to conduct the population count. That was the largest monthly increase since March 2000 and marked a fifth straight month of gains." That is still a gain in the private sector. In addition, those employed, their hours have gone up and they are working more hours than they were before.

Reuters article

I do believe that the LA crisis is already hitting as reflected in these numbers, but I agree, the next God-only-knows-how-long figures are going to suck because of this oil disaster. And it's going to hurt for a long time. Ed Schultz has been saying this since week one.

We just manage to creep away from that precipice and whammo.

But, hey, on the plus side, China keeps sending us crappy contaminated products. CNN Money is a gold mine of CPSA recalls and FDA fines. Tylenol and Motrin on the drug side, fires from Maytag products and some cancer causing agent in the Shrek glasses (and more kids jewelery). Ford Fusion floor mat problems.

They keep talking about the oil spill possibly changing the DNA of humans.

It's nothing but joy out there.

Posted by: MsJoanne on June 4, 2010 at 10:15 AM | PERMALINK

I think the mess in LA is going to create short term full employment along the Gulf coast, but long term it is a disaster. The entire ecology of the Gulf will be damaged for decades.

The question is will BA actually hire enough clean up workers or will that be left to the government? My guess is the government will be left holding the bag. BA will wiggle out of most of the clean up cost. Why else did the oil industry spend so much buying Congress and the Supreme Court.

I mean shifting damage costs from private industry to the government is exactly what tort reform is all about.

Posted by: Ron Byers on June 4, 2010 at 10:24 AM | PERMALINK

BA? Na, BP.

I would love to reserve some time to revise and extend my remarks.

Posted by: Ron Byers on June 4, 2010 at 10:25 AM | PERMALINK

Perhaps an unfortunate choice of words, Steve: 'AFTER a crushing recession that created an unemployment crisis.' 'During' or 'In the midst of' would be better, methinks.

Posted by: Ben on June 4, 2010 at 10:49 AM | PERMALINK

The plan to indoctrinate the citizenry into believing that 10% unemployment is the new norm is working smoothly. The corporate masters are pleased.
Posted by: neill

yes neill, in a consumer-driven economy, our corporate masters can think of nothing more helpful to their bottom lines than 10 percent unemployment.

Posted by: mudwall jackson on June 4, 2010 at 10:53 AM | PERMALINK

Sorry to burst your bubble, but you have no clue about the economy and the graph you put out misleading. 95% of jobs created in May are temp census jobs, which makes the job report really, really bad, unfortunately.

You cannot spin everything, and i think it shoukld not be your job. That is the reality, 20k jobs created, we should deal with it, instead of wishing it away.

Posted by: Peter on June 4, 2010 at 1:55 PM | PERMALINK
We're falling into a double-dip recession.
He went ahead and said it. Those former White House folks just don't know when to shut up. Posted by: Neo on June 4, 2010 at 4:40 PM | PERMALINK

That the Census jobs are only for a short period doesn't matter; ANY Federal jobs program would also be temporary. What matters is how much cash is pumped into the economy that, without those jobs, wouldn't have been.
The money paid out to the census workers won't be enough, on its own, to turn the economy around, but I don't see why it shouldn't be a help in preventing a "double-dip" recession; basically aiding in maintaining the economy until it builds up enough strength to start expansion on its own.
Further job programs and extensions of UI/COBRA would also fall into the category of "maintenance" and could be referred to as such as a way of helping to get those pieces of legislation passed.

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Posted by: Debt Settlement on October 13, 2010 at 1:08 PM | PERMALINK




 

 

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