Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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July 29, 2010

A CHANGING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE FOR HEALTH CARE REFORM.... At the height of the debate over health care reform, a certain set of political assumptions set in -- the Democratic proposal was unpopular, thanks to a scathing misinformation campaign. Republicans would base much of their midterm strategy on running against the new law, while Democrats hoped to see the law's popularity grow as the right-wing lies faded.

We're not yet near the point at which the Affordable Care Act could be characterized as "popular," but Dems are likely pleased with the recent trend.

Opposition to the landmark health care overhaul declined over the past month, to 35 percent from 41 percent, according to the latest results of a tracking poll, reported Thursday.

Fifty percent of the public held a favorable view of the law, up slightly from 48 percent a month ago, while 14 percent expressed no opinion about the measure, according to the poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Since April, the tracking poll has found support for the health care reform law go up four points, while opposition has gone down five points. Less encouraging were results that showed more than a third of seniors still believe made-up "death panels" are real -- zombie lies are surprisingly hard to kill -- but overall, proponents of the ACA who predicted that blind hatred for reform would fade over time appear to be correct.

In fairness, not every recent poll offers such encouragement. A recent Pew Forum/National Journal survey (pdf) still showed opponents outnumbering supporters by a fairly wide margin.

On the other hand, last month, a national Associated Press-GfK poll found that support for the Affordable Care Act was not only on the rise, but had reached new heights -- health care reform's supporters outnumbered opponents, 45% to 42%. A week later, a Gallup poll found 49% of respondents agreeing that passage of the law is a "good thing," while 46% think it's a "bad thing."

The point isn't that all the recent data offers good news for ACA backers; the point is that assumptions that Americans hate the new law are wrong. House Minority Leader John Boehner's (R-Ohio) office argued recently that "the American people remain squarely opposed" to health care reform, and pointed to "the rising public backlash against the new law."

The evidence to support such observations is still lacking.

Steve Benen 8:00 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (20)

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Comments

Since when do they care about evidence?

Posted by: jprichva on July 29, 2010 at 8:04 AM | PERMALINK

Let's hope Boehner continues operating on the assumption the ACA is hated by Americans everywhere.

There is a major problem when the far fringe of the base runs a party and that problem shows up during the general election season.

Posted by: Ron Byers on July 29, 2010 at 8:06 AM | PERMALINK

Opposition to the landmark health care overhaul declined over the past month, to 35 percent from 41 percent

Note that that figure is approaching the 27% crazification factor.

Posted by: Gregory on July 29, 2010 at 8:16 AM | PERMALINK

the American people remain squarely opposed to don't ask don't tell.

John Boner=crickets.

When Boner and associates use polls for policy decisions, they shouldn't cherry pick.

Posted by: flyonthewall on July 29, 2010 at 8:27 AM | PERMALINK

The GOP strategery for this Fall seems to be; "We hate black, gays, the unemployed, hispanics, uppity women, yada yada yada.

-I'm sure they will add to the list by november.

Posted by: DAY on July 29, 2010 at 8:41 AM | PERMALINK

Someone, might have been you Steve, said that if we relied on polls to establish policy, we'd still have Jim Crow laws.

Posted by: ComradeAnon on July 29, 2010 at 8:43 AM | PERMALINK

"The evidence to support such observations is still lacking."

Masterful understatement, Steve. Save this one: I'm certain you could apply it to virtually any string of words that ever comes out of a GOBPer's mouth. Or ass, if you prefer, since that's the Republican orifice that seems to do the most talking.

Posted by: azportsider on July 29, 2010 at 8:50 AM | PERMALINK

I received a letter from Arizona's Department of Administration blaming all of this year's increase in the price of health insurance on President Obama's law. I guess all the usual reasons for the increasing price of healthcare went away now, and it's just Washington DC that is to blame for runaway costs.

If that's true, then I'm not against it. But since it's bullshit, I have to say it's the kind of transparent bullshit that makes the GOP the laughingstock party it has become.

Posted by: jon on July 29, 2010 at 8:53 AM | PERMALINK

I'm still thinking more than 50% of those who will vote in November don't like it.

Posted by: Jamie on July 29, 2010 at 9:00 AM | PERMALINK

There is an article in The Seattle Times, posted on Political Carnival today, it should be widely distributed, apparently Texas has more uninsured people than 33 states have people, they are preparing all kinds of requests for grants & monies for the program, at the same time they are planning to eviscerate the program, I have always thought Rick Perry to be one of the creepiest individuals on the planet, especially when he spent
stimulus money on renovations to his rented mansion. Read it - it is an eye opener.

Posted by: Joan on July 29, 2010 at 9:03 AM | PERMALINK

Boner conducted his own extensive poll at all the DC bars, so I'm sure he's got his finger on the pulse of national sentiment on this issue.

Posted by: bdop4 on July 29, 2010 at 9:37 AM | PERMALINK

The Pew poll is interesting and once you read below the headline result there is a break down of "Disapprove" showing 37% want repeal and 4% answer they have no idea what to do to replace the bill, along with the 17% who said initially "Not Sure".

The interesting number was 7% of "Disapprove" said to leave reform in place and see how it works. Remember, a sizable number of people think reform did not go far enough. With 35% out right approve that give 42% approve/tolerate, 21% Not Sure 37% Repeal.

Not so different after all.

Posted by: OKDem on July 29, 2010 at 9:57 AM | PERMALINK

Most recent Rasmussen Poll-the most accurate 2008 pollster shows 56 support repeal while 38 pct oppose, including 47 pct who strongly support versus 25 who strongly oppose. I know leftwingers love to whine and moan about Rasmussen because it doesn't carry Nutroots Nation narratives and themes.

Posted by: deranged-bush-hater on July 29, 2010 at 10:20 AM | PERMALINK

Something to think about, when you start a post with an numerously time debunked false statement, why would you expect any knowledgeable person to give a shit about any thing else you might expound on since one can readily assume that you would also mischaracterize that also?

Posted by: grandpajohn on July 29, 2010 at 10:32 AM | PERMALINK

I just got a bill from our local hospital, my husband was in the day short stay part of the hospital for a procedure to insert a stent in the groin artery due to an annuerism, he was in the OR all of 2 hours, they could not get it in successfully, then for a few hours he rested.He will have to be admitted for surgery, anyway this short time at the hospital (no overnight)cost about $6500.00, it sounds crazy to me (in the UK it would be free)he had a serious operation in the UK, 10 day stay in hospital, round the clock care- the bill -zero.

Posted by: Joan S on July 29, 2010 at 10:35 AM | PERMALINK

House Minority Leader John Boehner's (R-Ohio) office argued recently that "the American people remain squarely opposed" to health care reform, and pointed to "the rising public backlash against the new law." The evidence to support such observations is still lacking.

Well, yeah. That's because Boehner is lying, as usual. You can tell whenever he's lying, because his lips move.

Posted by: Screamin' Demon on July 29, 2010 at 10:35 AM | PERMALINK

The New York Times had an interesting article yesterday about how the same states that are vowing to sue the Federal Government to repeal health care reform are also in the process of complying with it, as they have to. And it's no surprise to learn that the same red states vowing to fight it to the death are also making a grab for as much federal money as they can get in the process. How soon with the Republican candidates start taking credit for the parts of the bill that the public likes as it goes into effect? Oh wait, they're already doing that, aren't they?

Posted by: T-Rex on July 29, 2010 at 11:43 AM | PERMALINK

The Kaiser poll had screwy internals, showing Dems with a 15 point registration edge, the same as the approval margin for the health care bill. That number should probably be more like 5-7, and I would suspect the health care question would be in the same range.

Posted by: sacman701 on July 29, 2010 at 12:01 PM | PERMALINK

In my north-central Kansas town, there are many yard signs up supporting a state senator running for Congress. They bear the tagline "REPEAL IT!" which I take to be referencing the healthcare act. I'm not saying you're wrong, Steve, but the Repubs have enjoyed great success in KS with their zombie lies.

Posted by: debg on July 29, 2010 at 12:36 PM | PERMALINK

The AARP should be out there with a public campaign to counter the death panels smear. And those pushing for Medicare for all/single payer should be producing clever ads messaging how far we've come and how far we have yet to go. The Dems have let the Repugs dominate the messaging for too long!

Posted by: ghillie on July 29, 2010 at 2:04 PM | PERMALINK




 

 

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