August 6, 2010
YET ANOTHER DISCOURAGING JOBS REPORT.... With the Census Bureau continuing to shed workers, there was no real doubt that in July, as in June, the latest jobs report would show a loss of jobs in the economy. The question was how many, and how the private sector numbers would look.
Private employers added new workers at a weak pace for the third straight month, making it more likely economic growth will slow in the coming months. The jobless rate was unchanged at 9.5 percent.
The Labor Department said Friday that companies added a net total of 71,000 jobs in July, far below the roughly 200,000 needed each month to reduce the unemployment rate.
Overall, the economy lost a net total of 131,000 jobs last month, as 143,000 temporary census jobs ended.
The relatively good news is that private-sector job growth exists, and it was a little higher in July than in the previous two months. In May, private-sector job gains totaled 51,000; in June the number was 31,000; and in July it was 71,000. We've now seen seven consecutive months of job growth in the private sector, a streak we haven't seen in a long while.
The bad news is this isn't remotely good enough to help generate a sustained economic recovery.
Adding insult to injury, as discouraging as these numbers are -- and have been in recent months -- there's no reason to think policymakers will intervene to help. Congressional Republicans have made it clear that deficit reduction and spending cuts have to take priority over economic growth, and the GOP will block votes on recovery efforts, even if Democrats were to propose them. Indeed, in July, government jobs fell by 202,000 -- which was preventable, if there was the political will to do something about it, or the legislative ability to overcome Republican obstructionism.
For what it's worth, the job numbers for May and June were downwards, one far more than the other. While previous estimates showed the economy adding 433,000 jobs in May, the updated total was a gain of 432,000. June, however, was even worse than previously believed, revised from 125,000 lost jobs in the most to a loss of 221,000.
Once again, here's the homemade chart I run on the first Friday of every month, showing monthly job losses since the start of the Great Recession. The image makes a distinction -- red columns point to monthly job totals under the Bush administration, while blue columns point to job totals under the Obama administration.

—Steve Benen 8:50 AM
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Ironic that the very person who warned about this danger, Christina Romer, is leaving the administration today. Obama's political touch went AWOL in Decemeber 2008 when Romer warned about a too-small stimulus. And pretty much everyone knew that the Dems would get one shot at this. Republicans know, too, that stimulus spending was the ballgame. It's why they opposed it so stenuously. Now, there's nothing left except for GOPers to reap the reward of their nihilism.
Posted by: walt on August 6, 2010 at 9:09 AM | PERMALINK
Consumer demand is the number one economic driver.
People aren't buying 'stuff' because they don't have money to pay for it.
They don't have the money because they don't have a job.
Shouting, blame, and arm waving won't solve the problem.
Posted by: DAY on August 6, 2010 at 9:09 AM | PERMALINK
It does not matter that people do not have money to spend or jobs to go to the senate Democrats have their ideology and principals that they have not changed the senate rules to be able to lead effectively and do something meaningful about it, they can hold their heads high and say we are not as bad as those last Republicans that were able to run roughshod over the other side of the isle with a huge majority of 51.
Posted by: Fed Up and Tired on August 6, 2010 at 9:23 AM | PERMALINK
Hey Steve - a month or two ago I saw a version of your bikini graph floating around that was limited to ONLY looking at private sector job gains/losses. Did you do that one? Any chance you could provide that one along with this one every month?
Posted by: chboard on August 6, 2010 at 9:35 AM | PERMALINK
Of course it goes without saying that people older than a schoolchild would be very careful about accepting gifts from strangers . Obama accepted the gift of the presidency with a bit less antagonism then the in your face born again take it or leave it Carter gift presidency .
The walk has been walked and it seems that security through obscurity is the name of the game . This seems to default to the start position , which if I read the levels of propaganda correctly appears to be the entire country working for the one percent of the titled wealth . So it is Dumas by a nose .
All for one . Hurray
Posted by: FRP on August 6, 2010 at 9:56 AM | PERMALINK
...and the GOP will block votes on recovery efforts, even if Democrats were to propose them.
That's a fight that Democrats should be willing to have. Imagine a concerted effort on the part of the Administration, with Obama using his bully pulpit and oratorical skills to carefully and concisely explain why another, larger stimulus is the right thing to do, and why each and every argument against it by Republicans and others is wrong.
But no one appears to want to do anything about it. Money spent on the plebeians is money not spent to support the rich, I guess.
As Atrios often writes, perhaps someone should do something about this.
That they aren't doing anything, nor do they appear to want to even try (much less fight for it per above), suggests that Democrats and Obama really don't want to do anything.
And I continually wonder why that is.
Posted by: terraformer on August 6, 2010 at 10:10 AM | PERMALINK
Adding insult to injury, as discouraging as these numbers are -- and have been in recent months -- there's no reason to think policymakers will intervene to help.
Really? What do you think the state-aid bill that just passed the Senate that the House is being called back to pass is other than policymakers intervening to help on this exact issue?
Posted by: cmdicely on August 6, 2010 at 10:26 AM | PERMALINK
"...the GOP will block votes on recovery efforts, even if Democrats were to propose them. "
I'm trying to figure out why the Democrats are so passive, why they won't propose job creation bills or additional stimulus despite the certain Republican obstruction.
Current situation: Dems do nothing because the Republicans will block the proposals: Final score: Dems, 0; Repubs, 1.
Alternate reality: Dems propose something but Repubs block the proposals and scream "tax and spend socialist!" which motivates their base. Final score: Dems, 0; Repubs, 2.
We live in a very frightening age.
Posted by: PTate in MN on August 6, 2010 at 10:26 AM | PERMALINK
So this a bit like being stuck in the mud with a car - the tires spin but don't quite get the traction. Romer was probably right. Stim. bill wasn't big enough; it also had too many cut tax credits, and needed more sustained infrastructure projects and jobs. It also had a lot of money for research, which is great, but long-term; also lots of money for energy things - again - things that employ some people, but for the long haul with small monthly payouts.
For anyone who cares. Here is a simple idea. Cut the cutsie stuff. THis is based on ideas folks had awhile ago.
1. Go to the Am. Soc. of Civil Engineers Infrastructure list, cut the amount in half; amoritize it over 5 years. Focus on water, sewer, transport, esp. rapid transport; key rail lines. Propose those projects. Starting Jan 1.
2. Loosenup every non military program in the fed govt; speed every f*** grant,, contract, etc. Now.
3. End the Gulf drilling moratorium; declare victory. Find every other blue collar job opportunity, and open it up. Find every rule, reg., and other block to speeding up spending that the president can legally suspend, and suspend them. Make the announcement at a Labor Day picnic in Kentucky or where ever.
4. Expand education grants for educations of people who are willing to do 5 yrs in Vet. services - medical, social work, drug and alc. counseling, etc. and psych., and expand the programs via VA and all other VA-related things to effectively deal with all the PTSD, Post Iraq/Post Afghan bills.
Put together a package, and find the votes, somehow. Then; three words. Lame duck session. Threaten to bring this up after the election; hell, even half of this will have repubs. peeing in their pants. Make it all about jobs. Americans want work? Fine. Threaten repubs. with a lame duck sesion that will include 10-40 bitter, or retiring, or whatever, congressmen and women, who are willing to actually vote the right way, and get some one, anyone, to explain in clear terms F*** the deficit. If there is a credible threat that a REALLY BIG bill might be passed after the election, maybe something could get passed before?
A guy can dream, can't he ?
Posted by: bigtuna on August 6, 2010 at 10:48 AM | PERMALINK
terraformer: That they aren't doing anything, nor do they appear to want to even try (much less fight for it per above), suggests that Democrats and Obama really don't want to do anything.
Stupidest thing I've seen written here in a while.
How dumb do you have to be to not see that the republicans will do absolutely anything they have to do to obstruct Obama's agenda?
How deaf do you have to be to not hear the words coming repeatedly out of Obama's mouth saying exactly that?
How blind do you have to be to not realize what has already been accomplished, despite the opposition's commitment to total obstruction?
How totally senseless are you to spend your time and effort tearing down the leader of the party less than three months before a critical election, giving aid and comfort to the enemy?
Posted by: cr on August 6, 2010 at 11:53 AM | PERMALINK
Okay, cr, I'll bite - I've read your attacks the past several weeks on anyone who you think appears to not be clapping loudly enough.
What I'm saying--and I'm pretty sure you know that's what I'm saying, but are being intentionally obtuse toward making an argument for argument's sake--is that I'm not seeing the fight that one would expect to see if they really thought that was what was needed to get the economy rolling again and create jobs.
Sure, I've heard Obama say good things, and I've heard other Democrats say them, too. But what I haven't seen and heard is a cogent, consistent, and coordinated effort to go on offense in support of these measures - as I wrote, explaining what is needed, why it's needed, and forcefully and with prejudice call out Republicans for their intransigence, repeatedly and in front of every camera and microphone.
Yeah, I've seen what has been accomplished. But that isn't enough. I know what you're going to say - take what we can get, take what is practical given the state of politics. Right. But that's pretty much the point: we're taking what we can get, but we're not even trying to get more.
Again, and as has been related by others when you attack them for daring to write such things as this - many people do not believe that pointing out what we honestly, reasonably think are shortcomings of this Administration necessarily equal 'tearing down the leader of the party' and/or 'giving aid and comfort to the enemy.' But I'm sure you disagree. We should just take what we can get and clap louder, right?
Posted by: terraformer on August 6, 2010 at 12:16 PM | PERMALINK
terraformer: We should just take what we can get and clap louder, right?
My assumption is that you will take whatever you can get and continue to whine, with criticisms no more substantial or constructive than "do more, say more, run faster, fire emmanuel, etc."
You seem to think that bringing significant change for the better should somehow be an simple task, and that Obama has a magic wand that he's hidden and refuses to use because "Democrats and Obama really don't want to do anything."
I've begun to question firebaggers' motives the same way that Benen questions republicans': Intentionally out to harm the country? Or just stupid?
Posted by: cr on August 6, 2010 at 12:32 PM | PERMALINK
Steve, could you run a similar chart showing monthly job losses since the start of the Great Recession, but colored to show which party was in control of Congress each month?
Posted by: David Gaw on August 6, 2010 at 12:40 PM | PERMALINK
terraformer: many people do not believe that pointing out what we honestly, reasonably think are shortcomings of this Administration necessarily equal 'tearing down the leader of the party' and/or 'giving aid and comfort to the enemy.'
Right. Like calling Obama a pussy, saying he has no balls, throwing out other names like coward or weakling or any of a dozen other insults. All very HONEST and REASONABLE. Uh huh. Right.
Posted by: cr on August 6, 2010 at 12:49 PM | PERMALINK
in July, government jobs fell by 202,000 -- which was preventable
We can't have a census forever.
Posted by: Neo on August 6, 2010 at 3:27 PM | PERMALINK
What would be the point of Democrats pushing a second stimulus or a modern PWA/CWA if the Republicans ensure that it is never voted on? That is exactly what would happen to any of these ideas were they presented as legislation.
Until the Senate filibuster is, at the very least, returned to its' earlier form, there will be no change. The only reason the vast majority of the legislation and nominations, presently stalled in the Senate, isn't receiving a floor vote is that no consequences are suffered by a Senator for filibustering; no lost sleep, no chance of appearing ridiculously partisan, nothing. And if one party is basing its' entire political hopes on the failure of the majority party, why shouldn't they ruin countless lives and possibly the entire country? Besides patriotism, I mean.
To the reality-challenged among us I offer another alternative: elect more Democratic senators so that conserva-Dems and the few not-completely-insane Republicans needn't be catered to.
There IS a viable campaign platform; one based on the legislation enacted in the last two years. If the quality of the enacted legislation is defined by the amount of opposition to it, then this Democratic-run Congress ranks well ahead of 1933-34 and 1965-66.
The two issues, however, are not mutually exclusive...
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