Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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September 4, 2010

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT.... There was a front-page piece in the New York Times yesterday, which seemed to suggest that Democrats, on top of all their other election-season troubles, are losing one of the party's key group of supporters: young people. Relying on research from the Pew Research Center, the NYT reported that "fewer younger voters see themselves as Democrats."

The college vote is up for grabs this year — to an extent that would have seemed unlikely two years ago, when a generation of young people seemed to swoon over Barack Obama.

Though many students are liberals on social issues, the economic reality of a weak job market has taken a toll on their loyalties: far fewer 18- to 29-year-olds now identify themselves as Democrats compared with 2008.

As it turns out, it depends on how one defines "far."

Way down in the story, the NYT gets to the data: younger voters' identification with Dems "peaked at 62 percent in July 2008." The newest data puts the number at 57 percent.

Paul Waldman's reaction seemed like the sensible one.

Well now. That doesn't seem so dramatic anymore, does it? In the heart of a presidential campaign in which the Democrat, a dynamic young candidate, would go on to whip the Republican, a crotchety old candidate, the proportion of young people identifying as Democrats peaked at 62 percent. And now, with the economy in the toilet, the president's approval ratings in the 40s, and Democrats facing huge losses in November, that number has plummeted all the way to ... 57 percent.

What's more, party I.D. notwithstanding, the same data shows younger voters are more socially progressive and less anti-government than other age groups. That's not a sign of trouble for Dems; it's the opposite.

Now all Democrats have to do is figure out how to get these younger voters to care about the midterm elections.

Steve Benen 8:00 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (18)

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Comments

Can you have a 'kegger' near a polling place, and how far away does it have to be?

Posted by: c u n d gulag on September 4, 2010 at 8:04 AM | PERMALINK

Lies, Damn Lies and statistics.

I wonder what the margin of error is?

Posted by: atlliberal on September 4, 2010 at 8:17 AM | PERMALINK

The Dems' support among younger voters may not have bottomed out, Steve; and a five-point drop is still significant in a parlous political climate, where every vote counts. Frankly, this trend makes me queasy.

Posted by: BrklynLibrul on September 4, 2010 at 8:28 AM | PERMALINK

Yout's, in addition to being starry-eyed idealists, are also impetuous and impatient. They want action, and they want it fast; never mind that Washington doesn't work that way.

Obama came into office with an agenda, and the 20 somethings expected him to put on the cape with the big S, and git 'er done.

It's not all Obama's fault that he didn't, but he's the star of the show, and if the Democrats want to be renewed for another season this fall, Obama is the one who has to catch magic in a bottle.

-A kegger couldn't hurt. . .

Posted by: DAY on September 4, 2010 at 8:31 AM | PERMALINK

Arguing that young voters' identification with Democrats has fallen ONLY five points misses the point: people who became eligible to vote for the first time in 2006 or 2008 and who voted for Democrats (including the 66-32 landslide for Obama over McCain among young voters) are unlikely to vote this fall -- unless they vote for Republicans.

This is another classic example of the way progressive political culture retards building on success.

The College Republicans recognize that one of the major experiences 18-34 year olds share is economic anxiety -- it's the first time millions of these folks have to pay their own bills, and often it's the first time they start to think about their future in a serious way. So the Republican message to young people focuses on Federal spending (which doesn't seem to benefit them, look at unemployment), and the national debt (which, as the framing puts it clearly, they will have to carry the rest of their lives). Even health care reform, which might be expected to be popular among young adults because they are so vulnerable to something unexpected, has a sharp wedge because they are going to be required to buy something that many younger people used to feel was a luxury, a risk they could take.

Contrast the Democratic strategy, such as it is, which is "to reinforce, or re-establish, the bond that many students felt in 2008 with Mr. Obama, and to use that link to bolster support for Democrats. A spokesman for the committee, Brad Woodhouse, said he thought the surveys showing the erosion of Americans identifying as Democrats were misleading partly because voters connected differently with politics in 2008 — more through a person, Mr. Obama, than a party. "

How on earth is identifying with Obama two years ago gonna motivate a 22 year old to vote for a Blue Dog this fall????

Young voters are famous for their eagerness to identify with a cause, and are most effectively sustained in their political identification by visible dedication and sacrifice. Bobby Kennedy made huge progress with young people in 1968 because he criticized the way the way draftees suffered so much of the death and wounds of Vietnam, while rich kids got deferments. Then he got major national play when he was responded to a college crowd at Georgetown, precisely the sort of rich kid he was talking about. After talking about spending to help the poor, a medical student asked him: 'Where are you going to get the money?'

RFK got a standing ovation when he said, flatly: 'From you. America has been pretty good to me, and to everybody else in this room. So I am calling us all to a cause larger than ourselves, to pay America back with what we do, for what America has done for us. Isn't that good enough?'

Left unmentioned in the NYTt article -- and, oddly enough, by Democrats and Republicans, though for different reasons -- in talking about 18-34 year olds, are the veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan. Those are precisely the folks dedicated to a cause, who sacrifice for it, to exemplify the patriotism of young Americans.

But neither party much wants to identify with 'em, much less to hold 'em up as models for helping 18-34 year olds to identify with in turning out to vote for Democrats in November.

Republicans know they failed these guys. Democrats have trouble because so many opposed the war in Iraq, and we have difficulty articulating unqualified patriotism, in any case.

The road to defeat is paved with missed opportunities.

Posted by: theAmericanist on September 4, 2010 at 8:44 AM | PERMALINK

If, as the NYT says,

many students are liberals on social issues

then perhaps the way to
get these younger voters to care about the midterm elections

would be to, say, pursue some liberal policies rather than pulling up stakes and diving toward the "cover" of "center-right".

Posted by: Bernard Gilroy on September 4, 2010 at 8:45 AM | PERMALINK

Id say, Gay marriage, legalization of marijuana, immigration, green technology, and keep pounding on college affordability, along with other things like domestic aid and humanitarian aid to the poor in america and other countries stem cell research for cures etc.

Posted by: allamr18 on September 4, 2010 at 9:33 AM | PERMALINK

"Now all Democrats have to do is figure out how to get these younger voters to care about the midterm elections."

No, all Democrats have to do is figure out how to get Democrats to care about the midterms.

Posted by: g. powell on September 4, 2010 at 9:35 AM | PERMALINK

Now, now--the NYT has a meme to push. Why don't you leave the establishment media aloooooooone?

It's not like they trumpeted Bush's 2 point 2004 victory as 'a mandate' while not saying the same for Obama's clear thumping of Grandpa McCain.

Oh, wait...

Posted by: terraformer on September 4, 2010 at 9:36 AM | PERMALINK

I'm with Bernard. Just because "fewer younger voters see themselves as Democrats" doesn't mean they see themselves as republicans.

There's no way anyone who voted for Obama in 2008 is going to find economic salvation in the republican agenda, which to this day remains limited to tax cuts and the evisceration of every government program that does any public good.

I'de say most of that 5% considers themselves independents and sees both parties as full of shit.

Right now, I can't say that I blame them.

Posted by: bdop4 on September 4, 2010 at 9:48 AM | PERMALINK

You may not be able to blame them, but very soon, they will be able to blame you.

And rightly so.

Posted by: theAmericanist on September 4, 2010 at 10:25 AM | PERMALINK

Target a campaign to them on reducing the interest rate on their student loans to ZERO until the economy recovers.

Posted by: Joe Friday on September 4, 2010 at 11:56 AM | PERMALINK

Look recent grads and this year's seniors, grad students, are entering a really tough job market. Yes it's much better than it would have been, but not good enough. Right now, you have "business leaders" arguing for tax breaks for themselves, and some how say that will help the business. That makes no business sense, but never pass up a chance to milk a crises. Modern day robber barons.

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Posted by: gaga94 on September 4, 2010 at 12:25 PM | PERMALINK

Did it ever occur to some you that some of these kids didn't care one iota about politics in the first place? and once Obama was elected went right back to focusing on their reality shows and haven't paid attention at all since? They most likely have no idea what the hell a liberal or a progressive is, they may agree with some of the policies when asked, but they probably don't know what to label them politically.

Its funny that liberals call the American people stupid yet assume that they are upset that Obama took on so-called center-right policies rather than your preferred liberal policies. Learn to think like the American people and maybe your political movement can get somewhere.

Posted by: Alli on September 4, 2010 at 1:08 PM | PERMALINK

Alli has a point: preaching to the choir makes no converts.

Posted by: theAmericanist on September 4, 2010 at 4:28 PM | PERMALINK

Now all Democrats have to do is figure out how to get these younger voters to care about the midterm elections.

Not to pick on you Steve, but here is the list of political actors we see on the front page of this web site as I read this.

The GOP leadership (planning to shut down the government), Bill Clinton (criticizing Republicans), the Hawaiian GOP, Michael Medved, Focus on the Family, Ken Buck, Joe Wilson, Barack Obama (on jobs), John Ensign, a WSJ editorial, a Weekly Standard editorial, Paul Ryan, Jan Brewer, Newt Gingrich, Mark Kirk, Jan Brewer (again), The Republican Governors Association, Joe Miller
and Glenn Beck.

In other words, you've focused almost exclusively on Republicans and the Republican agenda and said nothing about the Democratic agenda. You've argued that Republican candidates are nuts, but who are their Democratic rivals? (Are they crazy too?) You've given liberal voters no reason to vote for Democratic candidates.

I see the same thing on every liberal blog I read. The front page of ThinkProgress is exclusively about Republicans. TPM headlines Jan Brewer. And Kos tells us that Democrats in Congress are getting ready to extend the Bush tax cuts.

Where exactly should young people go to get excited about voting for Democrats in the next election?

Posted by: Jinchi on September 5, 2010 at 4:41 AM | PERMALINK

The middle would be an improvement over the farther right course he's taken so far.

Posted by: CDW on September 6, 2010 at 11:14 AM | PERMALINK




 

 

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