
August 31, 2008
Gustav
Hurricane Gustav is projected to make landfall tomorrow morning. Our thoughts are with the people of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.
There's good information on the weather at Jeff Masters' blog and Weather Nerd; and on New Orleans at NOLA.com's Hurricane blog and Best of New Orleans. The latter reports that things are pretty bad on I-59. Otherwise, the evacuation seems to have gone well, and nearly two million people from New Orleans alone are out of harm's way.
Stay safe, and take care.
—Hilzoy 11:06 PM
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Borderline
This is amazing:
"On Saturday, a Democrat tasked with opposition research contacted the Huffington Post with this piece of information: as of this weekend, the McCain campaign had not gone through old newspaper articles from the Valley Frontiersman, Palin's hometown newspaper.
How does he know? The paper's (massive) archives are not online. And when he went to research past content, he was told he was the first to inquire.
"No one else had requested access before," said the source. "It's unbelievable. We were the only people to do that, which means the McCain camp didn't." (...)
It has been previously reported that the McCain campaign did not contact Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan, who Palin pushed to have fired after he refused to remove her sister's former husband from the state's police force. That controversy, an investigation of which will be made public in late October, could cause major headaches for Palin in the days leading up to the election.
In addition, the former Republican House Speaker of Alaska, Gail Phillips, admitted to reporters that she was shocked by McCain's choice of Palin, as "his advance team didn't come to Alaska to check her out.""
The more I learn about this choice, the more it reminds me of Bush's choice of Harriet Miers. I don't think it's at all similar in its political ramifications -- Miers' nomination was seen as a betrayal by social conservatives, the very people who are thrilled by Sarah Palin. But it is similar in the manner in which each was chosen. In each case, the person who made the choice had wanted to pick someone else, someone he regarded as a close friend., In each case, he was told that he couldn't choose that person because it would be politically disastrous. In each case, the person who made the choice responded not by sitting down and thinking about who might fill the role s/he was to be nominated for with distinction, but by making a quick and ill-considered choice of a plainly unqualified person, a choice that seemed like an insult to the office that person was nominated to fill.
Moreover, in each case that choice reflected the fact that the person making it was chafing at the discipline required of him. As far as I can tell, Bush reacts very badly to the idea that his powers as President are limited in any way, or that he owes anything whatsoever to his party or his allies. McCain is similarly undisciplined: he has been willing to do what his party requires of him, up to and including sacrificing his honor and his principles, but he visibly bridles at it, and he seems to be thrilled at the chance to be a maverick again. If that requires picking a vice presidential nominee who is wholly unprepared to take over as President, without doing anything like the vetting a Presidential campaign would normally require, then so be it.
Discipline is not McCain's long suit, and he loves to gamble:
""Enjoying craps opens up a window on a central thread constant in John's life," says John Weaver, McCain's former chief strategist, who followed him to many a casino. "Taking a chance, playing against the odds." Aides say McCain tends to play for a few thousand dollars at a time and avoids taking markers, or loans, from the casinos, which he has helped regulate in Congress. (...)
"He clearly knows that this is on the borderline of what is acceptable for him to be doing," says a Republican who has watched McCain play. "And he just sort of revels in it.""
Picking Palin without doing a thorough background check first is of a piece with this: chafing at discipline, playing the odds, liking to bend the rules and get away with it, wanting to be a bad boy. These are not character traits I'd like to see in a President.
***
UPDATE: In comments, Zuzu's petals notes that the Frontiersman archives are online. (Thanks.) I checked by running this search, which is on "Sarah Palin", starting in 1980, ordered by date with the oldest articles first. It lists no articles before 1998, even though Sarah Palin was elected to the City Council in 1992, and became Mayor of Wasilla in 1996.
The archive page says that not "the archives are not a complete reference to all items published in our newspaper but only reflect those items that have been posted on our website." My search turned up one article from 1998, and three each from 1999 and 2000; the pace doesn't really pick up until Sept. 2001. Since Palin was Mayor throughout those years, I assume that there are articles from 1998-2001 that didn't make the archive.
In short: if I were vetting Palin, I would definitely want to see the physical archives, not just the online version.
—Hilzoy 7:21 PM
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A SCALED-BACK CONVENTION.... With Hurricane Gustav's landfall expected tomorrow morning, mandatory evacuation orders are being heeded -- by one estimate, 95% of coastal residents have fled their homes -- and the National Guard is already in place in coastal areas. And what the Republican National Convention? It will begin tomorrow, at its regularly scheduled time, but only to take care of some official business, and will wrap up shortly thereafter.
[McCain] Campaign manager Rick Davis said Republicans would meet in an abbreviated fashion, conducting only what was necessary to constitute a convention, such as calling the convention to order, receiving a report from the credentials committee and adopting the party platform.
"Tomorrow's program will be business only and will refrain from any political rhetoric that would be traditional in an opening session of a convention," he said.
The convention will begin at its regularly scheduled time, 3 p.m. central time, and adjourn around 5:00 or 5:30, he said.
The GOP's four-day program was originally scheduled to begin Monday in St. Paul, Minnesota. Davis said the rest of the week's schedule would be determined on a day-by-day basis.
One assumes convention planners will have to consider just how serious the effects of the storm are before planning the rest of the convention, and officials may not have a real sense of the damage until Tuesday.
There were reports earlier that McCain might deliver his acceptance speech "from the devastation zone," and Rick Davis suggested at a press briefing today that this remains an unresolved issue.
—Steve Benen 7:15 PM
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BRIDGE TO SOMEWHERE.... The good news is, the McCain campaign is now starting to tell the public about Sarah Palin's accomplishments in Alaska. The bad news is, the principal example of Palin's strength as a leader is a blatant falsehood.
On a couple of the Sunday morning shows, John McCain and his chief surrogates touted Palin's opposition to the now-infamous "bridge to nowhere," a $398 million bridge to connect the town of Ketchikan to an island with 50 residents. To McCain and his supporters, Palin's firm stand against the congressional earmark is compelling evidence of her courage and conviction.
But what McCain and his cohorts are claiming is simply untrue. Palin supported the funding for the project, and kept the federal funds after the bridge deal fell through. Indeed, she ran for governor on a "build-the-bridge platform," and ended up directing federal funds to other wasteful pork projects, for fear of having to return unused tax dollars funds to the federal government.
This isn't an example the McCain campaign should be bragging about; it's an example the campaign should find embarrassing.
It does, however, lead to another question. McCain and other Republicans are boasting that Palin opposed the bridge. They're wrong. So, is the McCain campaign a) completely ignorant about Palin's actual record on this key issue; or b) simply trying to con the public?
Under the circumstances, it may be either. Making matters worse, I suppose it could be both.
If the single best example of Palin's leadership in office is bogus, what, pray tell, is the McCain campaign's Plan B?
—Steve Benen 5:10 PM
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'THE NITTY-GRITTY UNGLAMOROUS WORK OF GOVERNMENT'.... It's obviously difficult to scrutinize Sarah Palin's gubernatorial record, given its brevity. Arguably the most noteworthy development of her brief tenure is the investigation into whether Palin abused the powers of her office and lied about it.
But if substance is out as an option, how about style? We talked yesterday about The Anchorage Daily News' Gregg Erickson, who's noticed that the Alaskan Republican takes a decidedly Bush-like attitude towards matters of government: "[Palin] tends to oversimplify complex issues.... It is clear that she has not paid much attention to the nitty-gritty unglamorous work of government, of gaining consensus, and making difficult compromises. She seems to be of the view that politics should be all rather simple. That often appeals to the wider public, but frustrates those who see themselves as laboring in the less glamorous parts of the vineyard."
Kevin noted today that this is not an uncommon assessment from policy makers -- from both parties -- in Alaska. Republican Mike Hawker said, "[Palin's] administration had the appearance of paying absolutely no attention to any of the rest of the unglamorous side of government, whether it be dealing with human services, public services, highways, all the routine aspects."
Kevin added: "So in addition to not having much curiosity or interest in political affairs outside of Alaska, she apparently doesn't have much curiosity or interest in political affairs inside Alaska either. Sounds like the perfect successor to W."
This, of course, leads to a fairly obvious question: who vetted Sarah Palin? Even Alaskan Republicans aren't sure.
Former House Speaker Gail Phillips, a Republican political leader who has clashed with Palin in the past, was shocked when she heard the news Friday morning with her husband, Walt. "I said to Walt, 'This can't be happening, because his advance team didn't come to Alaska to check her out," Phillips said.
Phillips has been active in the Ted Stevens re-election steering committee and remains in close touch with Sen. Lisa Murkowski and other party leaders, and she said nobody had heard anything about McCain's people doing research on his prospective running mate.
"We're not a very big state. People I talk to would have heard something."
The Tom Eagleton parallels seem to be getting stronger.
—Steve Benen 3:01 PM
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GUSTAV FORCES CHANGE OF PLANS.... Not surprisingly, with Hurricane Gustav barreling down on the Gulf Coast, both President Bush and Vice President Cheney have cancelled their scheduled appearances at the Republican National Convention.
Also, John McCain told reporters earlier that the convention schedule will be altered, and the RNC is scheduled to host a press briefing at 4 p.m. eastern at the Xcel Energy Center with a revised schedule for the event.
The Obama campaign, meanwhile, has said both Obama and Biden would steer clear the area, so as to avoid increasing the burden on local officials, and will instead mobilize campaign supporters to help areas damaged by the storm.
Senator Barack Obama said Sunday that his campaign would mobilize its giant email list of supporters – to volunteer or send contributions – as soon as the impact of Hurricane Gustav becomes known in the Gulf Coast.
"We can activate an email list of a couple million people who want to give back," Mr. Obama told reporters after leaving services at St. Luke's Lutheran Church in Lima. "I think we can get tons of volunteers to travel down there if it becomes necessary."
Mr. Obama has made no plans to travel to the Gulf Coast, saying he does not want to get in the way of emergency efforts there, but he has spoken by telephone to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.
Mr. Obama conducted telephone interviews with four TV stations and a news-talk radio station in New Orleans, aides said, amplifying the warning for any remaining residents to follow the evacuation order and leave the city.
No official word, as of yet, on whether McCain will deliver his acceptance speech "from the devastation zone," as earlier reports indicated.
—Steve Benen 2:35 PM
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PROXIMITY TO RUSSIA IS IRRELEVANT.... On Friday, my friend Kevin Drum came up with a clever little way to preemptively mock Republicans' claims about Sarah Palin's foreign policy experience. "Isn't Alaska a central front in the new Cold War? That's foreign policy experience right there!" Kevin joked.
If only the Republican establishment wasn't serious about this. For example, Fox News' Steve Doocy, with a straight face, insisted, "[T]he other thing about her, she does know about international relations because she is right up there in Alaska right next door to Russia." (This led Jon Stewart to call Doocy a "moron.")
This morning, Cindy McCain made the exact same argument, telling George Stephanopoulos, in response to a question about national security experience, "[R]emember, Alaska is the closest part of our continent to Russia. It's not as if she doesn't understand what's at stake here."
Has Palin ever been to Russia? No. Has she ever demonstrated any expertise on U.S. policy towards Russia? No. Does she have any background in international relations at any level? No.
But for Republicans, the fact that she's lived near Russia is somehow a qualification for national office.
The mind reels.
—Steve Benen 12:21 PM
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GOP VOTERS DON'T LIKE THE SCRIPT.... The plan, according to the McCain campaign, is to send Sarah Palin into specific areas in swing states, most notably Ohio and Pennsylvania, where there are "pockets of women who had supported [Hillary] Clinton in the primaries."
Republican voters aren't necessarily prepared to stick to the script.
This might not be the best way to reach out to those disillusioned Hillary Clinton supporters.
In just her second appearance on the campaign trail with John McCain, newly-minted GOP running mate Sarah Palin was showered with boos on Saturday for attempting to praise Clinton's trail-blazing bid to become the first female president.
As she did at in her debut speech in Ohio yesterday, Palin appealed to the women in the crowd here in Pennsylvania with a political shout-out to Geraldine Ferraro, who preceded Palin as the first women to be tapped as a vice presidential candidate.
But in contrast with the mild reception that greeted her comments at the Ohio event, when Palin praised Clinton here for showing "determination and grace in her presidential campaign," the Alaska governor was met with a noisy mix of boos, groans and grumbles around the minor league ballpark where the "Road to the Convention Rally" was held.
And if that doesn't offend die-hard Clinton supporters who might give McCain a second look, maybe this will -- Palin recently thought it was hilarious when a couple of right-wing shock-jocks called a Republican foe a "bitch," and referred to the cancer-surviving rival "a cancer."
After hearing this, Palin not only laughed, but said she'd be "honored" if the shock-jocks attended her State of the State Address.
—Steve Benen 11:48 AM
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'OUTRIGHT LIE' ON TAXES.... When he's not talking about Britney Spears, arugula, or tire-pressure gauges, John McCain tends to attack Barack Obama on taxes. In fact, most of McCain recent ads feature the phrase "higher taxes" -- in all caps -- alongside Obama's picture.
Obama is no doubt aware of McCain's deceptive attacks, and emphasized his tax plan in his acceptance speech in Denver on Thursday: "You know, unlike John McCain, I will stop giving tax breaks to companies that ship jobs overseas, and I will start giving them to companies that create good jobs right here in America. I'll eliminate capital gains taxes for the small businesses and start-ups that will create the high-wage, high-tech jobs of tomorrow. I will -- listen now -- I will cut taxes -- cut taxes -- for 95 percent of all working families, because, in an economy like this, the last thing we should do is raise taxes on the middle class."
With that in mind, it was encouraging to see the Washington Post editorial board note today that "McCain's ads on taxes are just plain false," and his campaign's message is peddling a "phony, misleading and at times outright dishonest" line.
[T]he McCain campaign insists on completely misrepresenting Mr. Obama's plan. The ad opens with the Obama-as-celebrity theme -- "Celebrities don't have to worry about family budgets, but we sure do," says the female announcer. "We're paying more for food and gas, making it harder to save for college, retirement." Then she sticks it to him: "Obama's solution? Higher taxes, called 'a recipe for economic disaster.' He's ready to raise your taxes but not ready to lead."
The facts? The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center found that the Obama plan would give households in the bottom fifth of the income distribution an average tax cut of 5.5 percent of income ($567) in 2009, while those in the middle fifth would get an average cut of 2.6 percent of income ($1,118). "Your taxes" would go up, yes -- but not if you're someone who is sweating higher gas prices. By contrast, Mr. McCain's tax plan would give those in the bottom fifth of income an average tax cut of $21 in 2009. The middle fifth would get $325 -- less than a third of the Obama cut. The wealthiest taxpayers make out terrifically.
The Post doesn't seem fond of any plan to cut taxes, but the editorial board nevertheless concludes that McCain has been pushing an "outright lie."
Given that news outlets are generally very reluctant to use the "l" word when it comes to McCain's shameless dishonesty, it was encouraging to see Hiatt & Co. set the record straight.
—Steve Benen 11:00 AM
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POST-CONVENTION POLLING.... A couple of interesting new polls are out, but before considering the results, keep a key caveat in mind: polling over Labor Day weekend is a little tricky. The new numbers are noteworthy, but don't be too surprised if the next round of polls offer different results.
That said, I suspect these results will be welcome at Obama campaign headquarters.
The first national polls on John McCain's pick of Sarah Palin yesterday came out today from Rasmussen and Gallup -- and contrary to what the GOP probably hoped, she scored less well with women than men.
Here's a finding from Gallup: Among Democratic women -- including those who may be disappointed that Hillary Clinton did not win the Democratic nomination -- 9% say Palin makes them more likely to support McCain, 15% less likely.
From Rasmussen: Some 38% of men said they were more likely to vote for McCain now, but only 32% of women. By a narrow 41% to 35% margin, men said she was not ready to be president -- but women soundly rejected her, 48% to 25%.... Overall, voters expressed a favorable impression of her by a 53/26 margin, but there was a severe gender gap on this: Men embraced her at 58% to 23%, while for women it was 48/30.
And by a 29/44 margin, men and women together, they do not believe that she is ready to be President.
Gallup numbers from Friday showed 39% of respondents believe Palin is ready to serve as president if needed. It's the lowest confidence rate in a running mate since Dan Quayle in 1988.
—Steve Benen 10:00 AM
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AN ODD TIME FOR A VISIT.... All indications suggest Hurricane Gustav, now a Category-4 storm, poses a very serious threat to the Gulf Coast. Mandatory evacuations are underway in New Orleans, and the National Guard has been mobilized. Highways out of southern Louisiana have implemented an elaborate contraflow system -- all lanes lead north.
It is, to put it mildly, an odd time for a campaign swing.
Likely GOP presidential nominee John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, are traveling to Mississippi to check on people getting prepared for Hurricane Gustav.
McKain aides say McCain and his wife Cindy will join Palin in traveling to Jackson, Miss., Sunday at the invitation of Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. They said the McCains and Palins want to check on preparations because they are concerned about the people threatened by the storm, which is heading through the Gulf of Mexico and threatening the same area ravaged by Hurricane Katrina three years ago. The storm could hit the coast as early as Monday afternoon.
They will receive a briefing at the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency -- a permanent operations center monitoring hurricane response.
I'm trying to imagine a reasonable justification for this, but nothing comes to mind. Local officials no doubt have real work to do right now, showing some out-of-state politicians around while preparing a major storm probably isn't high on the list of priorities. McCain and Palin can get briefings over the phone over via teleconference, suggesting this is more about exploiting a potential disaster for the cameras.
Complicating matters, the Politico added, "McCain was scheduled to deliver his acceptance speech Thursday but now may do so from the devastation zone if the storm hits the U.S. coast with the ferocity feared by forecasters."
I'm going to hope this is some kind of trial balloon, and that someone on McCain's staff realizes what a mistake it would be to exploit human suffering for partisan gain. Maybe there's still some sense of decency left in McCain, and he'll realize a hurricane's devastation need not be a rebranding opportunity for the Republican Party.
—Steve Benen 8:36 AM
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Executive Experience
On the McCain Report, Michael Goldfarb writes that Sarah Palin "has more executive experience than Barack Obama and Joe Biden put together", a point that, by some strange coincidence, has popped up all over the conservative blogs. I think that the idea that Palin has an advantage over Obama in this area is completely wrong.
When this campaign started, one of my biggest questions about Barack Obama was whether he would be any good at managing things. The President is, after all, the head of a very large organization, and he had better either have good management skills or hire a chief of staff who does. The fact that I didn't know whether Obama had them didn't prevent me from voting for him -- none of the other candidates I might have supported had a track record in management either -- but I would have been happier had I known whether Obama was any good at running things.
I don't have that problem any more. Obama has spent the past year and a half running a large organization -- as of last December, it had "about 500 employees and a budget of $100 million" -- and running it very well. It's not just that he and his team beat the Clinton campaign, which started out with enormous advantages. It's not even that he often did so by building effective political machines from scratch in states in which Clinton had locked down the political establishment. It's that every account of the Obama campaign that I've read makes it clear that he has done an outstanding job of constructing and running a political organization. For instance, this account of Obama's campaign is very much worth reading, if you want to get a sense of how he runs things:
"The story of how Obama assembled his top advisers — and how he got them to work together as a team — offers a glimpse into his approach as a chief executive who manages an organization of nearly 1,000 employees. Obama has built "an amazingly strong machine," says Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, president of the Chief Executive Leadership Institute at the Yale School of Management. "People expected a more ad hoc, impromptu, entrepreneurial feel to it. It has been more of a well-orchestrated symphony than the jazz combo we expected."
Indeed, in merging the talents of powerful Washington insiders and outside-the-Beltway insurgents, Obama has succeeded at a task that has traditionally eluded Democratic candidates: forging an experienced inner circle who set aside their differences and put the candidate first. "The whole point is that it's not about any of these guys," says longtime GOP strategist Frank Luntz. "They feel blessed. They see it as how lucky they are to be working for this man, at this time, in this election. This is the dream team for the dream candidate. I waited all my life for a Republican Barack Obama. Now he shows up, and he's a Democrat.""
You can find more good descriptions of the Obama campaign here and here.
Executive ability is not the most important thing in the world. (For one thing, hiring a good chief of staff goes a long way towards making up any deficiencies you have as a manager.) But it does matter. At the beginning of this campaign, I don't think anyone knew whether Barack Obama would be any good at running things. Now, however, we do.
—Hilzoy 1:19 AM
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August 30, 2008
Now that I'm back from the convention, and have transferred all my backed up stuff onto my new computer (sigh), I've finally had a chance to sit down and consider McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate. I was in an airplane during her speech yesterday, but I saw her speak with McCain today, and I think it would be a mistake to underestimate her potential appeal. Besides making a significant chunk of the Republican base swoon with delight, she seems like a genuinely engaging person, and one who will give the McCain campaign some badly needed energy. These are not negligible things.
On the other hand, I completely agree with Steve:
"What matters most right now is John McCain's comically dangerous sense of judgment. He picked a running mate he met once for 15 minutes, who's been the governor of a small state for a year and a half, and who is in the midst of an abuse-of-power investigation in which she appears to have lied rather blatantly. She has no obvious expertise in any area, and no record of any kind of federal issues. McCain doesn't care.
Sensible people of sound mind and character simply don't things like this. Leaders don't do things like this. It's the height of arrogance. It's manifestly unserious. It's reckless and irresponsible. It mocks the political process. Faced with a major presidential test, McCain thought it wise to tell an imprudent joke of lasting consequence."
I have a terrible track record predicting how voters will respond to things, but I think that this choice will damage McCain in the long run, particularly since he made it so shortly after Obama's speech. This might have seemed like a good way to stomp on the Democratic convention, but it also ensures that a lot of voters will have this juxtaposition in their minds: Obama's speech, which, whether you agree with it or not, manifestly took the election and the choice before us with the seriousness they deserve, and McCain's transparently cynical choice of a charming but plainly unqualified person to be his running mate, which did not.
I was also struck by McCain's willingness to gamble not just with our country, but with his own campaign. He has chosen as his running mate someone he has barely met; who has no experience dealing with the kind of scrutiny she is about to face; who has, by all accounts, not been fully vetted; and who is in the midst of a scandal. That is a shockingly reckless thing to do. Obviously, I think it's worse to gamble with the country, but taking this kind of crazy flyer on someone you don't know nearly enough about is recklessness of a different kind, and worth noting in its own right.
—Hilzoy 9:36 PM
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MANIFESTLY UNSERIOUS.... At this point, I realize I'm belaboring the point. "Sarah Palin is an awful choice for a running mate," I can hear you saying, "We get it."
But I can't help but think the magnitude of this mistake has not yet sunk in among political observers. I was talking to a friend last night who is a political professional in DC, and the discussion, not surprisingly turned to Palin. He has extensive campaign experience, and every time I argued that this is completely insane, he explained to me a variety of reasons why this John McCain's campaign will benefit, significantly, as a result of this move. I suspect he's probably right.
We were, however, talking about different things. The Palin announcement probably stepped all over Barack Obama's post-convention bounce. Hell, for all I know, this one decision might actually help McCain win the presidency.
But that doesn't change the fact that this is the single most ridiculous development in presidential politics in a generation.
A top "loyal Bushie" told the Politico's Mike Allen that McCain's decision is "disrespectful to the office of the presidency." That's actually a pretty good way of characterizing it.
Campaigns have their ads, their polls, and their tactics, but at the end of the day, credible people who care about the country know that this is more than just a theatrical game -- the future of the nation counts more than the future of a candidate. Those who take affairs of state seriously may take cheap shots, shade the truth now and then, and run the kind of conventional campaigns we've all grown accustomed to, but honorable Americans of character don't gamble with the nation's well-being. They know there are lines that can't be crossed for expediency's sake, no matter how strong the temptation.
McCain was asked a while back about what he'd look for in a running mate. He said the "key" is to find the person "most prepared to take my place" in the event of a crisis. McCain spent the ensuing months with a motto: "Country first."
I don't doubt for a moment that Sarah Palin is a nice person and probably a competent Alaskan governor. But she also has the thinnest background of any candidate for national office since 1908. Is McCain willing, with a straight face, to argue that Palin is the single "most prepared" person in the entire United States to assume the presidency should tragedy strike? Is anyone, anywhere, prepared to argue that McCain has put "country first"? Of course not; these ideas are literally laughable.
Palin's qualifications are, to a very real degree, secondary to the issue at hand. What matters most right now is John McCain's comically dangerous sense of judgment. He picked a running mate he met once for 15 minutes, who's been the governor of a small state for a year and a half, and who is in the midst of an abuse-of-power investigation in which she appears to have lied rather blatantly. She has no obvious expertise in any area, and no record of any kind of federal issues. McCain doesn't care.
Sensible people of sound mind and character simply don't do things like this. Leaders don't do things like this. It's the height of arrogance. It's manifestly unserious. It's reckless and irresponsible. It mocks the political process. Faced with a major presidential test, McCain thought it wise to tell an imprudent joke of lasting consequence.
Kevin noted:
This is all part of what I was talking about the other day when I noted that McCain is running such a palpably unserious campaign. Steve Schmidt seems solely interested in winning the daily news cycle; his staff spends its time gleefully churning out juvenile attack videos; McCain himself has retreated into robotic incantations of simpleminded talking points; and now he's chosen a manifestly unqualified VP that he knows nothing about. I've honestly never seen anything like it.
No one has; it's without precedent in modern American politics. The novelty and gimmickry might hold sway with those who base their votes on who they'd like to have a beer with, but that doesn't make it any less of a joke.
Sullivan added, "Palin isn't the issue here. McCain's judgment is. It's completely off the wall. Is there something wrong with him?"
That may sound like a flippant question, but it deserves a serious answer. Is there something wrong with him? Might this be evidence of some kind of impulse problem, as reflected in his shoot-first, think-second approach to foreign policy?
When I think about the respect that John McCain had worked so hard to develop, the stature he'd taken years to cultivate, and the reputation he'd built his career on, it's breathtaking to see him throw it all away. If there's a more complete collapse in modern political times, from hero to clown, I can't think of it.
We're poised to learn a great deal about Sarah Palin, but we've just learned even more about John McCain. He's fundamentally unsuited for the presidency.
—Steve Benen 5:35 PM
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THE OTHER RUNNING MATE.... The Obama campaign released a new ad this morning that offers an interesting take on the McCain campaign's running mate announcement: Sarah Palin isn't especially important, because McCain is still just more of the same.
In effect, the message is: "Bush is McCain's real running mate."
"Well, he's made his choice," the voice-over says, "but for the rest of us there's still no change. McCain doesn't get it, calling this broken economy 'strong.' Wants to keep spending ten-billion-a-month in Iraq. And votes with George Bush 90 percent of the time. So, while this may be his running-mate, America knows this is John McCain's agenda. And we can't afford four more years of the same."
It's a compelling strategy: McCain offered four more years of failed policies before his announcement, and he offers four more years of failed policies now. So what difference does a running mate make?
What do you think of the new ad?
—Steve Benen 3:03 PM
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THE RIGHT OFFERS SOME REVIEWS.... It's probably fair to say most sensible people would find it tough to defend John McCain's choice of running mates, but I've been genuinely curious to see how Republicans respond to yesterday's Sarah Palin announcement. I don't mean campaign surrogates or Fox News personalities, who don't have a choice; I mean more traditional Republican voices who actually have to consider this decision on the merits (or lack thereof).
* Charles Krauthammer: "The Palin selection completely undercuts the argument about Obama's inexperience and readiness to lead.... To gratuitously undercut the remarkably successful 'Is he ready to lead' line of attack seems near suicidal."
* Noah Millman, presenting a defense for Palin: "I realize, of course, that she's totally unqualified to be President at this point in time. If McCain were to die in February 2009, I hope Palin would have the good sense to appoint someone who is more ready to be President to be her Vice President, on the understanding that she would then resign and be appointed Vice President by her successor."
* Ramesh Ponnuru called it "tokenism," adding, "Can anyone say with a straight face that Palin would have gotten picked if she were a man?"
* David Frum: "The longer I think about it, the less well this selection sits with me. And I increasingly doubt that it will prove good politics. The Palin choice looks cynical.... It's a wild gamble, undertaken by our oldest ever first-time candidate for president in hopes of changing the board of this election campaign. Maybe it will work. But maybe (and at least as likely) it will reinforce a theme that I'd be pounding home if I were the Obama campaign: that it's John McCain for all his white hair who represents the risky choice, while it is Barack Obama who offers cautious, steady, predictable governance.... If it were your decision, and you were putting your country first, would you put an untested small-town mayor a heartbeat away from the presidency?"
* Kathryn Jean Lopez: "As much as I loathe Obama-Biden, I can't in good conscience vote for a McCain-Palin ticket. Palin has absolutely no experience in foreign affairs. Considering both McCain's advanced age and the state of the world today, it is essential that the veep be exceedingly qualified to assume the office of president. I simply don't have any confidence in Palin's ability to deal effectively with Iran, Russia, China, etc." [Update: Lopez was quoting an email, not expressing her actual views. My apologies.]
* Mark Halperin: "On the face of it, McCain has failed the ultimate test that any presidential candidate must face in picking a running mate: selecting someone who is unambiguously qualified to be president."
The phrase "jump the shark" keeps coming to mind.
—Steve Benen 1:00 PM
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THOSE WHO KNOW HER BEST.... There's never been a politician from Alaska on the national stage before, so I kind of expected Alaskans and the Alaskan media to have a decidedly positive attitude about Sarah Palin joining the Republican ticket. It's not exactly turning out that way.
* The Daily News-Miner in Fairbanks: " She has never publicly demonstrated the kind of interest, much less expertise, in federal issues and foreign affairs that should mark a candidate for the second-highest office in the land.... Most people would acknowledge that, regardless of her charm and good intentions, Palin is not ready for the top job. McCain seems to have put his political interests ahead of the nation's when he created the possibility that she might fill it."
* State Senate President Lyda Green, a Republican from Palin's hometown of Wasilla: "She's not prepared to be governor. How can she be prepared to be vice president or president?"
* Dermot Cole, a longtime columnist for Alaska's second largest newspaper, The Daily News-Miner, called McCain's choice of Palin "reckless" and questioned her credentials.
* Mike Doogan, a former columnist now serving as a Democrat in the state legislature: "John McCain looked all over the United States to find the single Republican who is qualified to be, as the saying goes, a heartbeat away from the presidency, and he came up with Sarah Palin. Really? ... [L]et's be honest here. Her resume is as thin as the meat in a vending machine sandwich.... The long and short of it is this: We're not sure she's a competent governor of Alaska. And yet McCain, who is no spring chicken, has decided she's the best choice to replace him as president if he should win and then fall afoul of the Grim Reaper. Sarah Palin? Really?"
* The Anchorage Daily News' Gregg Erickson: "[Palin] tends to oversimplify complex issues, has had difficulty delegating authority, and clearly has some difficulty distinguishing the line between her public responsibilities and private wishes.... It is clear that she has not paid much attention to the nitty-gritty unglamorous work of government, of gaining consensus, and making difficult compromises. She seems to be of the view that politics should be all rather simple. That often appeals to the wider public, but frustrates those who see themselves as laboring in the less glamorous parts of the vineyard."
Erickson's description kind of makes Palin sound like George W. Bush, doesn't it?
—Steve Benen 12:30 PM
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THE CRIME AND THE COVER-UP.... At her kickoff event in Ohio yesterday, Sarah Palin boasted about having rejected congressional funds for the infamous "bridge to nowhere." Soon after, we realized that Palin wasn't telling the truth about one of her signature issues, on her very first day as a candidate for national office.
Now, some might say this is excusable, because Palin's remarks were written by McCain campaign aides, and the McCain campaign barely knows who Palin is. That's probably true.
But lying about an alleged abuse of power is far more serious.
Remember the expression, the cover-up is worse than the crime? It's plainly true in the case of Palin firing Alaska Public Safety Commissioner Walter Monegan. Take a look at this video, from the ABC affiliate in Alaska, and notice that Palin seems to have been caught, rather blatantly, misusing her power and then lying about it.
While we're at it, read this rather extraordinary report from the Washington Post about just how embarrassing this scandal is for Palin.
For that matter, let's not forget that Palin fired the Alaska Public Safety Commissioner for the most dubious of reasons, and then replaced him with a guy facing a credible sexual harassment accusation, and who was out of the job two weeks later. What a great example of sound judgment.
As part of the investigation, Palin will have to leave the campaign trail to be deposed soon, the results of an investigation from the legislature into the controversy is due shortly before the election, and the word "impeachment" has been thrown around more the once.
Josh Marshall added, "Using the power of the government to settle scores with estranged relatives or associates is far from unprecedented.... But I doubt very much that they were prepared for the heat of full bore national media scrutiny on this one. And in this case you not only the underlying act, which is sleazy, but the high probability that Palin is lying about her role."
Did John McCain even ask about any of this? Does he have any idea what it looks like? Why would he pick a running mate in the middle of an ethics scandal in which there's strong evidence that the governor told obvious untruths?
I'm not making any predictions here, but I can't help but wonder if Palin will still be on the Republican ticket by the time Election Day comes in November.
—Steve Benen 11:45 AM
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'FAUX-FEMINISM'.... It may seem foolish -- in large part, because it is -- but John McCain believes he can win over women voters by picking a running mate whose opposition to reproductive rights is so extreme, she opposes abortion even in cases of rape or incest. Now that's a good plan to woo supporters of Hillary Clinton.
We talked a little about this yesterday, but there are two great pieces on McCain's cynical and insulting outreach to women voters that I wanted to mention. The first is from the New York Times' Gail Collins.
....I do feel kind of ticked off at the assumptions that the Republicans seem to be making about female voters. It's a tad reminiscent of the Dan Quayle selection, when the first George Bush's advisers decided they could close the gender gap with a cute running mate.
The idea that women are going to race off to vote for any candidate with the same internal plumbing is both offensive and historically wrong.
And The American Prospect's Ann Friedman fleshes this out in more detail.
Palin's addition to the ticket takes Republican faux-feminism to a whole new level. As Adam Serwer pointed out on TAPPED, this is in fact a condescending move by the GOP. It plays to the assumption that disaffected Hillary Clinton supporters did not care about her politics -- only her gender. In picking Palin, Republicans are lending credence to the sexist assumption that women voters are too stupid to investigate or care about the issues, and merely want to vote for someone who looks like them. As Serwer noted, it's akin to choosing Alan Keyes in an attempt to compete with Obama for votes from black Americans. [...]
McCain has turned the idea of the first woman in the White House from a true moment of change to an empty pander. Why is this a pander? Because Palin is not a woman who has a record of representing women's interests. She is beloved by extremely right-wing conservatives for her anti-choice record (fittingly, she's a member of the faux-feminist anti-choice group Feminists for Life). Palin supports federal anti-gay marriage legislation. She believes schools should teach creationism. Alaska is currently considering spending more on abstinence-only sex education. And when it comes to a slew of other issues of importance to women, such as equal pay, she's not on the record.... [M[ost of us understand that a woman candidate is not the same thing as a woman's candidate.
I'd just add how striking it is that McCain had more capable women to choose from, but picked one who wasn't even a governor when he started his presidential campaign. Senators such as Hutchison, Dole, Snowe, Collins, and Murkowski were skipped over, as were more experienced governors like Lingle and Rell, as were "mavericks" like Todd-Whitman, as were cabinet secretaries like Rice, Spellings, and Chao, as were business leaders like Fiorina and Whitman.
McCain skipped over more capable women for a younger, less experienced woman he barely knows. This is supposed to impress women voters? Seriously?
—Steve Benen 11:08 AM
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QUOTE OF THE DAY.... I'm not sure if the McCain campaign has thought this line through.
"[Sarah Palin is] going to learn national security at the foot of the master for the next four years, and most doctors think that he'll be around at least that long," said Charlie Black, one of Mr. McCain's top advisers, making light of concerns about Mr. McCain's health, which Mr. McCain's doctors reported as excellent in May.
First, it's not an especially good idea for top McCain aides to joke about whether McCain is going to survive four years in office.
Second, it's not an especially good idea to describe McCain as "the master" on national security, given that he's embarrassingly confused about national security and foreign policy for quite some time.
Third, it's not an especially good idea to concede, on the record, that the Vice President during two wars will need on the job training.
And fourth, John McCain's top strategist has effectively told the New York Times that the Republican nominee for V.P. won't be ready on Day One, but that's fine, because McCain will probably live until 2013. Seriously. That's his argument.
I'd love to hear some enterprising political reporter who travels with the McCain campaign to ask the senator, "In the event of a tragedy or national calamity, and a President McCain were unable to carry out his duties, who does John McCain believe is the single best, most trustworthy, most capable, most reliable person in the entire United States to lead the free world?"
Joe Lieberman? Tom Ridge? Lindsey Graham? Dick Lugar? John Warner? No, it's Sarah Palin.
I just want to see McCain or one of his top aides say this with a straight face. Just once.
—Steve Benen 10:07 AM
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NOT-SO-PERFECT STRANGERS.... We've been told for quite a while about John McCain's style of inter-personal interaction. He likes to take time to get to know people, trust them, and get a sense of their character before knowing whether or not he can count on them.
I mentioned yesterday that McCain barely knows Sarah Palin, hasn't worked with her in any capacity, and hadn't even asked her to serve as a campaign surrogate at any point in the process. The two are, for all intents and purposes, practically strangers.
But let's flesh this out a little more. John McCain, literally, spoke to his running mate, the person he believes should be one heartbeat from serving as the leader of the free world, exactly twice before offering her a spot on the ticket.
1. McCain met Palin in February at a meeting of the National Governors Association. The one-on-one interaction between the two, according to the McCain campaign, lasted 15 minutes, at a reception after the meeting.
2. McCain talked to Palin on the phone on Sunday, while she was at the Alaska State Fair. The conversation, according to Palin's press secretary, lasted five minutes.
3. McCain had a brief meeting with Palin at one of his Arizona homes on Thursday morning, offering her a spot on the national ticket.
There's no personal relationship. There's no sense of how the two might work together running the executive branch. There's no way for McCain to know how she thinks, how she processes information, and how she responds when the pressures on. There's just nothing.
John McCain doesn't know Sarah Palin, but he wants the nation to trust her. We are, of course, also supposed to trust him, despite the fact that he just picked someone to help him lead the nation who he barely knows anything about. Indeed, when introducing Palin at an event yesterday, McCain had to carefully read from a script, as if he wasn't sure what what his running mate's name was.
I wrapped up yesterday thinking there's something deeply wrong with John McCain's decision making. This morning, I'm pretty certain of it.
—Steve Benen 9:05 AM
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KARL ROVE'S BRILLIANT ANALYSIS..... Looking back at Karl Rove's campaign analysis from earlier this month, this might be the single funniest thing I've read in a long time.
Republican strategist Karl Rove said on Face The Nation Sunday that he expects presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama to choose a running mate based on political calculations, not the person's readiness for the job.
"I think he's going to make an intensely political choice, not a governing choice," Rove said. "He's going to view this through the prism of a candidate, not through the prism of president; that is to say, he's going to pick somebody that he thinks will on the margin help him in a state like Indiana or Missouri or Virginia. He's not going to be thinking big and broad about the responsibilities of president."
Rove singled out Virginia governor Tim Kaine, also a Face The Nation guest, as an example of such a pick.
"With all due respect again to Governor Kaine, he's been a governor for three years, he's been able but undistinguished," Rove said. "I don't think people could really name a big, important thing that he's done. He was mayor of the 105th largest city in America."
Rove continued: "So if he were to pick Governor Kaine, it would be an intensely political choice where he said, `You know what? I'm really not, first and foremost, concerned with, is this person capable of being president of the United States."
Yes, the real problem with Tim Kaine is that he's only been governor of a large state for three years, and before that, he was only the mayor of a mid-size city. This, of course, made him "undistinguished," unprepared for national office, and the very idea of putting him on a national ticket was practically ridiculous.
Thanks, Karl.
—Steve Benen 8:00 AM
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August 29, 2008
FRIDAY'S MINI-REPORT.... Today's edition of quick hits:
* Paul Begala: "John McCain needs what Kinky Friedman calls 'a checkup from the neck up.' In choosing Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his running mate he is not thinking 'outside the box,' as some have said. More like out of his mind."
* David Gergen was pretty impressed with Barack Obana's speech last night, calling it "a political masterpiece" and "less a speech than a symphony."
* The McCain campaign is selling pens on its website that misspell the word "students." Ouch.
* Sarah Palin actually doubts that human activity is responsible for global warming.
* Palin has never been to Iraq. I'm looking forward to McCain denouncing her disinterest in the troops.
* What a coincidence: "Ad featuring scandal-plagued Ted Stevens endorsing Sarah Palin for governor in 2006 mysteriously vanishes from her campaign Web site."
* Ezra makes it plain: "[H]ere's what even [McCain's] supporters must admit: Country did not come first. Polls did."
* In a few years, Palin may be as accomplished as Dan Quayle was in '88.
* McCain is 23 years older than Alaska.
* John Cole on the Palin pick: "It seems so transparently cynical, so deeply poll-driven and focus-grouped, and so manifestly just a bone to the wingnut pro-life base and the 8 PUMA holdouts, that I really can't treat this pick seriously."
* For months, Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty have worked their asses off for the McCain campaign, traveling, speaking, doing interviews, and launching attacks. Palin, meanwhile, didn't do much of anything to help the McCain campaign. As of today, Romney and Pawlenty are pissed.
Anything to add? Consider this an open thread.
—Steve Benen 5:30 PM
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PALIN ON HRC.... One of the more offensive angles to the McCain campaign's running mate announcement is how breathtakingly cynical it is. As the McCain gang sees it, supporters of Hillary Clinton are driven entirely by gender concerns -- the notion that Democrats may have actually liked Hillary for her record and agenda apparently isn't a consideration -- so picking a woman, any woman, even a far-right anti-choice woman, will necessarily drive Democrats to vote Republican.
I suspect this will backfire. No one likes to be played for a fool, and these crass tactics will probably be perceived by Clinton backers as more insulting than anything else.
And yet, in a move that was about as subtle as a sledgehammer, Sarah Palin praised Hillary Clinton during her first appe |