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November/December 2011 A Geography Lesson for the Tea Party

Even as the movement’s grip tightens on the GOP, its influence is melting away across vast swaths of America, thanks to centuries-old regional traditions that few of us understand.

By Colin Woodard

Our cultural balkanization ensures that the Tea Party movement—and radical political movements generally— will never achieve lasting success on the national stage: they simply won’t be able to build a lasting coalition. It’s also the reason U.S. elections have become such nail-biters, decided by the shifting allegiances of a relatively small number of voters from a small and recurring cohort of (mostly Midlander) battleground counties in a handful of swing states. It can also inform winning strategies to defeat the destructive and ultimately undemocratic Deep Southern program, whether it travels in Confederate gray, Dixiecrat suits, or leggings and tricorn hats.

There are two ways to hasten the Tea Party agenda’s demise. One is to draw one or more weakly aligned regions away from their coalition. The other is for progressives to cultivate a lasting partnership with El Norte or the Midlands, the two great “swing regions” on today’s political map. The smartest strategy would be to do both simultaneously, in each case focusing on the lowest-hanging fruit. If the Democratic Party is to be the vehicle to accomplish this, it will need to retune its message accordingly.

The Dixie bloc is far from solid. Of the Deep South’s partners, Greater Appalachia is the most reliable after Tidewater, sharing a dominant Protestant religious culture that focuses on individual salvation in the next world and discourages efforts to perfect the current one, condoning slavery in the nineteenth century, the racial caste system in the twentieth, and laissez-faire capitalism throughout. But this culture also prizes personal freedom and resents domination by outsiders, be they mining companies or federal regulators. Significantly, Appalachia has had a near monopoly on the production of “southern” populists (LBJ, Ross Perot, Sam Rayburn, Mike Huckabee) and progressives (Cordell Hull, Bill Clinton, Al Gore). Meanwhile, the Far West, once a bastion of progressive politics, has parallel strains of colonial grievance and libertarian individualism, and its most powerful religious force—Mormonism—has Yankee roots and is firmly committed to the notion of improving the present world (just as the early Puritans were). Neither culture supports “regulation” or “taxation” in the abstract, as these are seen as encumbrances on individual liberty. However, both are eager to strike back at forces—particularly outside forces—that seek to exploit them.

If progressives were to campaign in these regions on promises to bring rogue bankers, mortgage lenders, mining interests, health insurers, seed companies, and monopolistic food processors to heel, they would have far wider appeal; here, regulation can be sold as a matter of justice, the closing of tax loopholes a matter of fairness. Calls for new government programs are unlikely to win many hearts and minds in these two regions, but improving the efficiency and fairness of both the government and the marketplace can. The potential dividends will likely be modest in Greater Appalachia, but small gains at the margins in places like southcentral Pennsylvania, southern Ohio, or western Virginia might tip the balance of an entire state in a presidential or Senate race. In the Far West, the gains could be dramatic, potentially tipping many mountain states out of the Dixie camp. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial collapse, an outsider who spent nearly his entire adult life in Yankeedom (Obama) was able to defeat a Far Western native son who chose to run on the Dixie-bloc platform (John McCain) in Colorado and Nevada, and almost captured Montana as well. The Far West is ready to leave the Dixie coalition—and the Tea Party—if someone offers them a palatable alternative.

Simultaneously, the northern alliance stands to benefit from the increasing political power and consciousness of El Norte. Hispanics have reasserted political control of the borderlands after more than a century of imperial subjugation. The Dixie agenda has always been unpopular there, while the Tea Party in the aforementioned states has been a vehicle for white fears that they are losing “their” country to Hispanic Americans and Mexican and Latin American immigration. (“Immigration attitudes are an important predictor of Tea Party movement support in the West,” a recent study of polling data by two Sam Houston State University political scientists found, as were “economic issues related to minority relations.”) So long as northern-alliance political leaders continue to champion cultural inclusiveness—and the Dixie bloc does not—they can count on political and electoral support from this fast-growing region. The Hispanic population is expected to triple by 2050— accounting for most of the nation’s overall growth—and most of that will take place in El Norte. This will result in a commensurate decrease in Tea Party influence in the legislatures and congressional delegations of Texas, California, Arizona, and New Mexico. (Currently, the House Tea Party caucus has just two members from El Norte—both anti-immigration whites from Orange County.)

The people of the Midlands generally want their communities left alone to get on with their lives, but in the midst of a crisis they can be counted on to defend the federal union from authoritarianism, bigotry, or dismemberment. The region has been generally apathetic about the Tea Party movement, providing just two members of its House caucus. But were the Tea Party to actually implement its agenda—slashing Social Security, Medicare, and federal spending on public education—Midlanders would rally to their northern neighbors, just as they did after—and only after—Deep Southerners opened fire on Fort Sumter.

In short, the Tea Party and the Deep South may do the country serious harm, but they will not take it over. They may hobble the workings of Congress, inject flat-earth thinking into Senate debates, or even capture the presidency next year. But their policy program will never win the hearts and minds of a clear majority of Americans, and it carries the seeds of its own destruction. The political pendulum will indeed swing back. How far it goes—and how long it stays there—will depend on how many of America’s cultural regions the Deep South’s opponents can attract to their cause.

Colin Woodard is State and National Affairs Writer at the Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram and author of American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America.

Comments

  • Xenos on October 17, 2011 8:57 AM:

    Agree that the Democratic party must integrate the Nortenos firmly within it. Right now this seems to be happening by default, as a result of the nastiness of the Republicans on immigration and civil rights issues.

    Not in agreement with going after the Far West. If indeed Mormonism is and will continue to be the dominant cultural trend, the entrenched hierarchy of that religion will continue to work as much like a business as possible. Cultural revanchism will be the primary approach for at least the next generation.

    The key is Texas, and by extension, the rest of the Deep South. When demographics start to tip those states into the tossup category, the GOP and the Tea Party are doomed. As evidence of this, look at Alabama being willing to wreck its agricultural sector for the cause of maintaining white political supremacy.

  • MSHuiner on October 17, 2011 9:11 AM:

    I found this to be a very interesting piece. As a native of south Florida, I must say that I am fascinated by the fact that this was the one section of the entire country that was left off of the map! Does the author not believe that S.FL. has relevence to this discussion? Hard to believe after the election of 2000! Does the evidence from S. FL. contradict something about the author's thesis, and is thus set aside? Or, does the author find S.FL. to be such an amalgamated polyglot of folks originating from the other regions that it simply doesn't address the issues which are the focus of this article? This is not a criticism; I am truly curious about the author's thoughts on southern Florida.

    "In Florida, the farther north you go, the farther south you are!"--Unknown

  • Bernie Latham on October 17, 2011 11:26 AM:

    @Colin
    Your post was linked by Greg Sargent this morning. I just wanted to drop a note and thank you for an extraordinary piece of historical/geographical analysis.

  • Dude on October 17, 2011 12:30 PM:

    @MSHuiner,

    The author didn't make that map. Although due to the fact that half of Florida is left out completely, and the fact that the artist included Canada, the editors probably should have sent it back for an alteration or had it redrawn completely.

  • cld on October 17, 2011 12:39 PM:

    South Florida should be called WTF-ville.

    I note two regions called New France. My question is,

    is that region of Canada really as daft as New Orleans?

  • Dude on October 17, 2011 12:56 PM:

    Apparently I should finish reading the article before I comment.

  • joe cree on October 17, 2011 1:11 PM:

    you may have some insight when it comes to american politics, but the mere fact that you blend alberta and manitoba as a unit shows that you have no comprehension of canadian politcs. i really wish americans would refrain from demonstrating their vast ignorance of the world around them in their failed attempts to appear educated.

  • liberalGRIT on October 17, 2011 1:48 PM:

    Seriously, you have North Carolina ALL WRONG. North Carolina should be included with greater Appalachia -- during the period prior to the Civil War, NC was primarily a land of small family farmers, some indentured servants and slaves, but more often than not either small land owners or folks working someone else's land. Very suspicious of government and authority, much like Appalachia. In the Civil War, NC was one of the last of the nearby states to secede. During Reconstruction, the influx of Northern folks swelled, yet they did not leave at Reconstruction's end; throughout the first half of the twentieth century, NC adopted industry but remained a state of small groups that tended to resist change and authority. There were many significant civil rights violations and victories here, which does seem to group us with the deep south. However, the building influx of folks from elsewhere, particularly the mid-Atlantic and Northern regions of the country, has rebalanced the regional flavor to a more modernized version of Appalachia. I would argue that most of Virginia, these days, would not make sense in the Tidewater grouping either; NC and Virginia, as well as Maryland, share many characteristics.

  • Rick B on October 17, 2011 1:56 PM:

    I have found these cultural regions informative, since I grew up in south East Texas (deep South) but belong to a family which is Midwest and norteneo-anglo in culture. North of my deep South roots are the Appalachians (north part of East Texas) who always seemed very strange to me. Rep. Louie Gohmert is an example.

    But the split that seems to me the most important politically in Texas is the distinction between the rural (agricultural-dominated) and the urban populations. The rural white population has dominated Texas politically since the end of Reconstruction, but the total population of the big cities have very recently passed the rural population. Much of recent Texas politics has been the dominant rural politicians (with their wealthy backers) digging in and gerrymandering themselves into position even as the population leaves them behind. The takeover of the Texas Republican Party by the social conservatives in the late 80's and early 90's was part of this process.

    By your map above Texas has Deep South, Appalachian and Norteneo cultures which concurs with my over 60 years experience in this state. But the two big immigrations have been from Mexico and (more important) from Midwestern and eastern big cities. Unfortunately the latter group has been largely Republican and they moved to the suburbs. The big cities in Texas all voted for Obama in 2008, the rural areas voted social Republican and the suburbs are beginning to be tossups as they become more big city in culture.

    My conclusion is that your cultural analysis of the US is interesting, but it is long term politically and not especially predictive. I think that the real political battle in America will continue to be the rural-urban split with the urban voters tending to be less likely to vote but greater in population. This cultural description of America will apply more to the rural voters than to the urban ones, but the urban voters are going to ultimately (re)gain control of the federal government.

    The story here of the politics in Maine simply shows that even the northeastern rural voters are more urban in attitude and culture than they are rural in culture. That's probably true of the Midwest, also.

    Strictly my opinion, of course, and thanks for a very interesting discussion of America's historical cultures and their influences. As a native Texan I am always interested in the stories from the 49 colonies of Texas. ;-}

  • Paul Gottlieb on October 17, 2011 5:02 PM:

    I hate to be one of those academics who says "this has all been done before," but in essence it has. See the work of Daniel Elazar, described here: http://academic.regis.edu/jriley/421elazar.htm

    The key categories of political culture are "moral,"
    which actually means progressive (think abolitionists) as in Massachusetts and Minnesota. "Individualistic" is pro-business, as in New York, New Jersey, and Ohio. "Traditional" is the deep south. Everything else is a blend of these three. Elazar classified all 50 states.

    --from the heart of New Netherlands; I see a Dutch Reformed church every time I turn a corner in NJ

  • Bill Kurtz on October 17, 2011 5:05 PM:

    This is fascinating. For a book-length view of the same sort, but going far beyond politics, track down "Nine Nations of North America," a 1980s book by Joel Garreau. His book, by the way, answers MS Hulner's point- he groups South Florida with the Caribbean islands.

  • Left Coaster on October 17, 2011 5:28 PM:

    You mean North Cuba?

  • Varecia on October 17, 2011 6:08 PM:

    People should be careful to note that El Norte is not monolithic, and that those in the far northern part identify most with their ancestry from Spain, although the truth is that most people here derive from a mixture of ancestry, ranging from Spanish, to Mexican, to Native American and other European countries, such as France and Germany. Views about immigration vary with how strongly populations emphasize their Mexican ancestry over their European (Spanish) ancestry.

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  • Packeryman on October 17, 2011 8:02 PM:

    The federal government must take over the redistricting plan of Texas. The far right religious fanatics and tea bagging lunatics have taken over Texas government and are redistricting without regard to minority population. Their plan was to weaken minority vote in all districts, making Republicans strong through illegal gerrymandering. The state will never do what is right with Republicans in charge of both houses. We plead for the case that is in the courts now to remove the right of the state to redistrict since they have proved they are out to destroy the minority vote and the Democrats.We got four new Representatives due to increase of Latino population and the Republicans right wing nuts are trying to dilute the minority vote. This is wrong but typical of bible thumping religious fanatics and tea bagging lunatics.

  • D Lawrence on October 17, 2011 9:46 PM:

    I read a book along these lines a couple of decades ago: "The Nine Nations of North America" by Joel Garreau.

  • Jarret Ruminski on October 17, 2011 9:53 PM:

    This article and its entire premise is utter and complete crap. This is the kind of completely arbitrary, ethnocentric, geographic determinist approach to history that peaked in the early eighties and now refuses to die. This guy should not have a job.

  • CKGeist on October 18, 2011 2:34 AM:

    I find the article pretty interesting, although i do find that it draws alot from "Nine Nations" to me it is an updated and condensed version of that work. But I also find one of the earlier posters comments about NC and Tidewater especially true. For this being an update it has totally missed a major demographic change. I would posit that Tidewater and New Netherlands no longer exist separately and the coastal portion of Midland is also gone. I would call teh conglomeration of those :nations: bad word choice (i think he was trying to refer to nations in teh gypsy, native american, jewish(read tribal) sense) as "the beltway" which extends pretty mcuh from the Walt Whitman Bridge to Charleston and Hilton Head.

    As for the "rubbish" comment, I would say this person has not traveled or lived in many of these areas, because in many cases you can actualy see the differences in a matter of crossing a river (ST. Lous, Delaware, the Shulykill).

  • CL on October 18, 2011 5:10 AM:

    Does this article owe a debt to "Albion's Seed" by David Hackett Fisher?

  • Jo on October 18, 2011 8:02 AM:

    Getting back to the tea party: While a historical analysis of the settlement and political leanings of various regions of our country is interesting, I find its connection to the tea party to be marginal, at best. For what is the tea party? Is it a reaction to an overbearing, overspending, unconstitutional government? Or is it, as the mainstream "Jumping someone else's train" thought line goes, some conservative people wanting to slash programs, and disenfranchise the poor? I think that a majority of Americans throughout the country identify with the ideas behind the original tea party, while simultaneously rejecting what the tea party has been hijacked to be by the likes of Sarah Palin and others, including the mainstream press.

  • Andrea on October 18, 2011 8:06 AM:

    Having a copy of the book at my hand, I would urge some of you to actually read it, as it goes much more thoroughly into the dynamics of each region. The author feels the Tidewater region may eventually disappear and explains why there is overlap into Mexico and Canada. The map accurately represents Mr. Woodard's theories.

  • Marv Gomez on October 19, 2011 2:37 PM:

    South Florida is just too new of a settled region to apply to this study of historic regional traditions. There simply is no dominant regional tradition/collective ethic existing there yet.

  • glendenb on October 19, 2011 7:07 PM:

    The patterns make sense to me. If you look at the archipelago of excellent, small liberal arts colleges scattered across the midwest, you see the influence of the Yankee values. In the Far West you have vast empty spaces punctuated by urban hubs (Denver, SLC, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Boise); you have colonial economies based on extraction of mineral wealth and tourism, but minimal production. The natural alliance between the Left Coast and Yankeedom makes sense. Having lived in Tidewater and visited Greater Appalachia there are distinct cultures there, having spent time in the Deep South there is another cultural pattern, the cities and towns feel different (Atlanta, sprawling, disorganized, unplanned, is Deep South versus Asheville NC which is only three hours drive away but a world away culturally). Sante Fe and Albuquerque are culturally distinct from Phoenix - New Mexico's politics are different than AZ or UT.

    I was reminded strongly of the analysis of David Hacket Fischer in Albion's Seed, as as another commenter.

    The question I'm still sorting out - is the connection to the teabaggers correct?

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  • Surazeus Simon Seamount on October 24, 2011 10:37 AM:

    Most of my ancestors came from the Puritan immigration in 1630, with some from the Tidewater and Appalachian groups, so this article helps give me better perspective on my assumptions, and how I may broaden my perspective.

  • LT COL ORSON SWINDLE, RETIRED on October 28, 2011 10:10 AM:

    I'm torn. On one hand, some of what you wrote is accurate and interesting. On the other hand, some of what you wrote is ignorant yankee provincialism.

    Long story short, you know very little about America below the Mason-Dixon Line, particularly NC, SC, GA, and FL, and need to do further research before writing any more about it.

  • Mark Crowley on October 31, 2011 2:42 AM:

    You statement the entire North you list if dominated by Inuit is highly oversimplified and your statement about Greenland when makes no sense at all. Greenland isn't part of Canada at all, you probably mean Nunavut, but frankly this makes me doubt your entire analysis. Also, tying Southern Ontario in with the puritan American midwest when it was run directly by Britian for a century after US independence is very odd. There are some puritan enclaves in Southern Ontario but you cannot include the core of Upper Canada (Ottawa, Kingston, Toronto/York) within that broad brushstroke. As for New France, I would hope you are aware that the French population that was resettled to New Orleans is largely distinct from Quebec itself, they came from the Acadian population in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. They were evicted from their land by the British.

    It's a nice idea to come up with a map like this, and perhaps this is a good, rough first draft, but it's definitely not accurate as it is.

  • Bob Dehler on November 03, 2011 8:48 PM:

    I think your analysis is correct.
    When I read ALBIONS SEED many observations I made while in the Navy and college came together with what I knew of history and politics.
    Your further elucidation orf cultural/ historical differences helps explain much of what we are seeing, and what we may see in the future.
    Bravo!
    Bob Dehler
    Scarborough, Maine

  • Steve Kettmann on November 06, 2011 7:42 AM:

  • Just a suggestion on November 11, 2011 3:58 AM:

    Perhaps all the Democrats can move to half the states, and the Republicans to the other. Then both can adopt their system of government, and see which one lasts. Just for an experiment. To think, you won't have to vote anymore!

  • Colin Woodard on November 11, 2011 1:53 PM:

    Thanks to all of you for your comments and your interest in the thesis. I'd point everyone to my book, American Nations, to fully appreciate the thesis, its implications, and the degree to which I do or do not understand a given part of the continent and its history.

    First of all, there seems to be some confusion about where my "national" boundaries really lie. There's a detailed county-by-county map in the book, which should clear things up. (The cover art image -- posted with this article -- takes some artistic license.)

    @Mark Crowley: I don't lump all of Manitoba in with Alberta and Sask. In fact, most of the population of Manitoba is located in the Midlands section in its southeast corner. Nor did I ever say Greenland was in Canada. (I've been there and know well where it is.) It's part of both First Nation and North America. Also New France is not just [the French-settled part of] Quebec, but also comprises the portions of Acadia where the British cleansing campaign was not successful. Acadia and Quebec share a founding ethos handed down by Champlain.

    Tidewater is explicitly identified in the book as a nation in decline, as several posters have observed. New Netherland certainly is not. Also, North Carolina is not all categorized as being in Tidewater -- most of it is in Greater Appalachia. (If you think eastern NC communities like Edenton, Bath, New Bern, and Elizabeth City aren't in Tidewater, you've clearly never visited; for more on this region's history, please consider a look at my previous book, The Republic of Pirates.)

    Several of you asked about South Florida. As the book makes clear, I had to draw a line somewhere, and my criteria was to only include regional cultures whose respective cores lay in what is now the U.S. and Canada. This excluded South Florida (part of a Spanish Caribbean "nation" probably based in the old imperial port of Havana), Hawaii (still part of Greater Polynesia, despite Yankee missionary activity in the 19th century), Newfoundland (either a lost Anglo-Irish colony or perhaps a nation of its own), and central and southern Mexico.

    The book's introduction also acknowledges Joel Garreau's Nine Nations of North America, the works of David Hackett Fischer, and Kevin Phillips' "Emerging Republican Majority" (which I'm surprised none of you raised. In the end notes you'll find not only Elazar, but Wilbur Zelinsky, Henry Glassie, Paul Kleppner, Raymond Gastil, and dozens of other academics whose work helped inform the aforementioned works and, indeed, my own.

  • RVA_Exile on November 13, 2011 5:20 PM:

    Interesting theory, but similar to some commenters, I am tempted to poke a lot of holes in it.

    The borders of Tidewater are only ok - they should go at least west to Roanoke and the Shenendoah Valley, and I would trade more of Maryland for less of North Carolina. I am curious to see in what respects you consider it a nation "in decline." Perhaps as its own distinct region as it gets folded into the greater Northeast Corridor Megalopolis, but this region is not present in your analysis. You fail to mention that Tidewater is both the political (Washington) and military (Hampton Roads) capital of the US; economically, demographically and politically it hardly seems in decline. Given the strong government influence, you will be hard-pressed to find an active tea party in Tidewater. Even with Virginia's 8-3 Republican delegation to the House, there is not a single member of the Tea Party caucus. In national electoral politics, Tidewater seems to be moving away from the Deep South as Greater Appalachia is joining the Deep South.

  • Templar on November 14, 2011 1:57 PM:

    I think David Hackett Fischer did it first and did it best with he "Albion's Seed" about the 4 major British folkways that settled the United States. Over time, large groups of non-British immigrants have gradually adopted the cultural traditions of one of those 4 British folkgroups.

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  • Eric on December 24, 2011 9:32 PM:

    Interesting summary. I will get the book to see more. One observation I would add is that Appalachia culture extends north into southwest New York state.

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