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We all talk a lot about the implications of unemployment rates, new jobs, GDP growth, etc., on the 2012 presidential race. But as Ezra Klein reminds us today, you get elected by winning individual states, and there are a wide variety of economies in different parts of the country:
The five largest swing states — Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and North Carolina — control more than a third of the electoral votes necessary to win the presidency. In December, they had a collective unemployment rate of more than 9 percent, half a percentage point higher than the national unemployment rate. (State-by- state numbers for January haven’t been released yet.)
Similarly, an analysis conducted in January by the Progressive Policy Institute looked at the housing market in 16 battleground states (adding Arizona, Indiana, Minnesota and Missouri to Gallup’s list). It found that since October 2008, battleground states have experienced an average drop in home prices of 16 percent. In three states — Florida, Arizona and Nevada — the drop was more than 30 percent. Nationally, the drop has been 11 percent.
Ezra goes on to point out that trends rather than absolute economic conditions tend to matter most politically, so voters in states making up ground later this year might be in a better mood than the raw numbers would indicate. But it’s certainly important to remember that the idea of a “national economy” is a bit artificial, and you’re not going to get excited about a good national jobs report if you’re unemployed in Florida with a mortgage as underwater as the Everglades.
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T2 on February 09, 2012 9:26 AM:
"you get elected by winning individual states" uh, no. You get elected by having a candidate to vote for. Currently the Republicans don't have one. The Dems do.
And by November, the Republicans still won't have a candidate....unless you count Romney or Santorum. How many Americans think Santorum would do a better job on the economy? And Romney? The only economy he improves is his own.
kevo on February 09, 2012 9:31 AM:
The once a week pizza dinner for Middle Class America became a once a month treat during the 2010/2011 depression!
If the economy rebounds to two pizza dinners a month in 2012, President Obama has a greater chance of reelection! -Kevo
c u n d gulag on February 09, 2012 9:32 AM:
All I can say is that my 'personal economy' still sucks.
My future's so dim, a couple of searchlights won't help.
Danp on February 09, 2012 9:34 AM:
Who was it a few days ago that attributed all the economic success to governors? Well, almost all of the states listed in this article have wing nut Republican governors: Az, IN, FL, PA, MI, OH, NV.
Anonymous on February 09, 2012 9:35 AM:
The only economy he improves is his own.
Bravo - a great bumpersticker.
j on February 09, 2012 9:48 AM:
Eric Cantor is trying to weaken the STOCK act, to be voted on today, there is a petition on a Democratic web site to try to stop him, please sign it!
DAY on February 09, 2012 10:08 AM:
There is a movement now being put forward by a number of states to ease underwater mortgages to the tune of 30 billion dollars. (this in return for stopping lawsuits against "robosigning")
One hopes that the Obama Administration gets some credit for this.
As they say, "all politics is local". And what can be more local that your own front door?
exlibra on February 09, 2012 10:19 AM:
Who was it a few days ago that attributed all the economic success to governors? -- Danp, @9:34 AM
Lil Bobby Mc D (Bob's-for-jobs! McDonnell), of Virginia. He's one of the understudies for VP. Always quick to take credit where none is due.
John Dillinger on February 09, 2012 11:07 AM:
Yo, states that are lagging behind in the recovery. Do you have a Republican governor? Did he refuse stimulus funds? Does he refuse to cooperate with the health care act, threatening to leave your state behind? Do the math on that one.
As for as those states still suffering from the real estate bus, some commercials with Romney talking about letting values "hit bottom" so that "investors" can buy them are in order.