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A “prominent Republican senator”says that he will call for a new candidate to join the GOP race if Romney loses Michigan. He figures that Santorum and Newt would both lose 35 states. His choice would be Jeb Bush.
Many analysts think that this is preposterous scenario—the deadline would have passed to enter many states, etc. But it’s not so much preposterous as it is merely entirely possible, yet suicidal all the same. The national committees of the two parties can basically do anything they want to do. If there are rules and bylaws which prohibit various actions by contending candidates, the committees can simply change their own rules. If enough people on the committee—or with influence on those on the committee—want to create a set of procedures which would lead to the nomination of Jeb Bush (or Haley Barbour or Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan or anybody), they can do so.
But, of course, under such a chaotic scenario, the white knight candidate would be destroyed by Obama in November. The current candidates and their supporters would be enraged, and the newly crowned candidate would obviously benefit from a rigged system designed—like Bush v. Gore—solely for his one time use. It would make the 1968 Democratic Convention in riot torn Chicago look like a chess tournament.
Recall that some Democrats imagined a similar possibility in 2008. Not a new candidate entering the race, but Hillary Clinton winning the nomination via various last minute rules changes, and the support of the majority of super delegates. Of course, however, the first African American major party presumptive nominee could not somehow be screwed out of the top spot at the last minute without tearing the party apart. A Pyrrhic victory, as it used to be called during the original Greek crisis.
So sure, Republicans: nominate Jeb Bush or Chris Christie or Genghis Khan. But even for a party with the blood lust to cheer executions, that will pour a bit too much blood on the floor to readily clean up.
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Danp on February 18, 2012 8:34 AM:
There's no question Ron Paul supporters would be FURIOUS!!!! Beyond that, however, I get the impression that most Republicans have a cynical faith that Obama is destroying the universe and that anyone who can beat him is fine, regardless of any rules or any positions on any issues. Their biggest complaint would be if the new savior were seen as being chosen behind closed doors by Wall Street or some other urban cabal.
hells littlest angel on February 18, 2012 8:38 AM:
Political parties do from time to time commit suicide, and the Republicans sure do seem like they'd like to get themselves measured for an explosive vest. This may be wishful thinking on my part, but it looks to me like Republicanism is going to die of something other than natural causes.
JoeW on February 18, 2012 9:05 AM:
I don't think any of the candidates have the enthusiastic support needed to generate a significant outrage or backlash. Romney supporters see him as the lesser evil, while the Anyone But Romney supporters are satisfied that he's... well...not Romney. That leaves the Paul supporters who are already convinced the GOP has rigged the game against him. The real problem would be getting the state committees on board in time.
POed Lib on February 18, 2012 9:07 AM:
Gee, wouldn't that be special? The Repukeliscum, following yet another Bush into destruction? I would really enjoy that. We could remind everyone of the total incompetence of Bush.
Maybe Jeb would run with Cheney as his VP?
Daryl Cobranchi on February 18, 2012 9:18 AM:
I can see this as a winning strategy for the GOP. We know that the Repug Super-PACs will spend upwards of $1B on negative ads against Obama, driving up his negatives. If the GOP doesn't choose their white knight until, say, November 1st, Obama and the Dem Super-PACs wouldn't have time to retaliate. I mean, you can't exactly run negative ads against a generic Republican, can you?
Of course, getting on the ballots might be a challenge. But I'm sure Scalia et al. will be prepared for that.
coldhotel on February 18, 2012 9:46 AM:
One of the interesting things about the Republican race is that supporters of all the various candidates think their candidate is a shoo-in to beat President Obama. At this point only Romney comes even close.
martin on February 18, 2012 9:49 AM:
Which brings me back to one of my all time pet political peeves -Why the hell do the States pay for the primaries, other than the States are controlled by the parties who are the beneficiaries of this socialistic largesse?
The primaries are a party function, not a State function, as this latest cunundrum makes clear. Get the States out of the primary business.
bob h on February 18, 2012 10:29 AM:
There must be some sensible Republican thinkers who realize that it is just not on for the Presidency, and that resources must pour into holding House and perhaps strengthening their Senate.
(There was a joke on Wait, Wait last week that had Jeb Bush changing his name to Jeb Jesus Reagan Lincoln)
Anonymous on February 18, 2012 10:50 AM:
Maybe Jeb would run with Cheney as his VP?
To complete the circle, better make it Liz Cheney....
jlt on February 18, 2012 11:04 AM:
Jeb Bush and his followers want to win..in 2016. When the voter has forgotten that his brother and father helped to destroy the economy!
AndThenThere'sThat on February 18, 2012 11:10 AM:
Which brings me back to one of my all time pet political peeves -Why the hell do the States pay for the primaries..
Here in Missouri, the state spent $7 million tax dollars on the recent GOP primary that didn't count and that only mustered around 8% turnout. We spent something like $28 per vote cast on a beauty contest. Meanwhile the state is bleeding money and firing government employees.
rrk1 on February 18, 2012 11:22 AM:
Conventional wisdom has it that it's too late for a white knight to save the Rethugs from themselves. And probably that's true. The only candidates that have generated any real passion among the old, white, and angry GOP primary voters are Gingrich and Santorum,. But voters abandoned Gingrich readily, Paul hasn't increased his following, and baby-faced Santorum will probably probably continue to hold many of his disciples among the evangelicals and anti-sex octogenarians.
If the old maxim of Democrats fall in love, and Republicans fall in line, is true, then hypothetically a white knight could possibly unite the various cults into which the party has devolved. It seems unlikely. The anti-immigration, anti-tax, anti-abortion, anti-same sex marriage cults only want what they want, their own narrow ideology excluding any unity. So what is the probability of finding one Rethug who satisfies them all? Pretty close to zero, and that's been the problem all along.
It's entertaining to watch the circular firing squad. Long overdue.
schtick on February 18, 2012 11:40 AM:
I can't figure out why they bother with a convention when there's only one candidate, but then, where would they meet the people that line their pockets and the little dolls they meet and hook up with later in their rooms.
JS on February 18, 2012 1:06 PM:
It occurs to me that there just aren't that many Senators with the gravitas and seniority to credibly be behind the quote. McCain would be one, but I can't see the most recent (and somewhat discredited in the party) nominee calling to overthrow the primary results, so I rule him out.
That leaves McConnell, Kyl, Thune and Cornyn from leadership, with DeMint and maybe Coburn?
liam foote on February 18, 2012 1:35 PM:
The only chance the GOP has is a brokered convention where they nominate an, experienced, reasonable moderate. I would go with Sen. Dick Lugar of Indiana, someone who would appeal to independent voters and is from a Midwest state surrounded by similar swing states that weill be crucial in the general.
exlibra on February 18, 2012 2:32 PM:
liam foote, @1:35PM
Lugar is fending off a primary challenger; someone named Murdock, who is being run by the Club For Growth. If his primacy in *that* chase looks, even for a moment, like being threatened, what chances would he have nationally, especially among the rabid fringe?
Gail Collins (one of my favourite columnists at the NYTimes) mentions his situation in passing today (the full impact of the column is aimed at Santorum):
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/18/opinion/collins-anywhere-i-hang-my-hat.html?ref=opinion