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February 08, 2012 4:20 PM “Enthusiasm Gap” Revisited—and Reversed?

By Ed Kilgore

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A lot of the discussion of “enthusiasm” in the lead-up to elections has always struck me as suspect. Certainly a lot of the endless talk of a pro-Republican “enthusiasm gap” in 2010—attributed variously to the Tea Party movement, or to Obama’s “socialism,” or to Obama’s base-deflating “centrism”—conflated “enthusiasm” with the eternal tendency of older white voters to cast ballots in midterm elections in significantly higher percentages than younger and non-white voters.

Since we are now in a presidential cycle with an eternally different set of demographic turnout tendencies, it’s not surprising that, all other things being equal, the pro-GOP “enthusiasm gap” seems to be declining. But turnout patterns aside, even direct measurements of “enthusiasm”—based not just on likelihood to vote, but on, you know, actual enthusiasm—seem to be changing as well. That’s implicitly apparent in the relatively low turnout (outside of South Carolina) being generated by this year’s flawed GOP presidential field. But it’s more explicitly apparent in a new PPP survey of actual excitement about voting:

Our last national survey for Daily Kos found that 58% of Democrats were ‘very excited’ about voting this fall, compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months ago the figures were 48% of Democrats ‘very excited’ and Republicans at the same 54%. Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for the GOP.
Going deeper inside the numbers:
-25% of conservatives are not at all excited to vote this fall, compared to only 16% of liberals.
-The percentage of Tea Party voters ‘very excited’ about voting in November has declined from 73% to 62% since late July.

And here’s something from this survey that we haven’t heard lately:

-The single group of voters most enthused about turning out this year are African Americans, 72% of whom say they’re ‘very excited’ to cast their ballots.

The CW has long been that the huge 2008 African-American vote for Obama was a unique phenomenon based on the historic nature of his candidacy, and given the poor objective conditions of life for African-Americans right now, this vote was very likely to decline. Maybe not.

Now direct measurements of “enthusiasm” can obviously change, and are obviously limited in their significance, since even the most “enthusiastic” voters only get one ballot. I also think Democrats would be foolish to think that current “base” disgruntlement with the GOP presidential field can be translated into low turnout assumptions. But it is increasingly clear that a right-bent GOP can no longer pretend it will be able to ignore swing voters and cruise to victory on the power of wildly energized Tea Party folk snake-dancing to the polls to evict the hated Obama.

Ed Kilgore is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly. He is is managing editor for The Democratic Strategist, a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, and a Special Correspondent for The New Republic.
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Comments

  • m on February 08, 2012 4:28 PM:

    It's February. It's cold. The Election is in NOVEMBER.

    OF COURSE PEOPLE AREN'T ENTHUSED ABOUT VOTING.

    I'm not enthused about voting. In November, I'll happily vote.

    "Enthusiasm" is a stupid metric.

  • stormskies on February 08, 2012 4:33 PM:

    Careful Ed or you are going to destroy the corporate manufactured narrative ......

  • Napoleon on February 08, 2012 4:41 PM:

    I actually think African Americans will at a minimum be at least as enthusiatic this time around becuase they have had 4 years of watching Obama be treated like the black who doesn't know his place in the order of things by a significant percentage of the population and they are going to have his back going into this election.

  • massappeal on February 08, 2012 4:42 PM:

    I know Irish-Catholic Americans who *still* have an entirely different quality in their voice when talking about Jack Kennedy than they do with any other president---and he died almost 50 years ago.

    Maybe the "conventional wisdom" should attempt to take into account that just seeing a picture of Barack (or Michelle, or Sasha and Malia) Obama, or hearing his voice on the radio, or watching a TV show that refers to him, is for many African-Americans a daily moment of pride, solidarity, joy and accomplishment that is difficult for outsiders to comprehend.

    Or...maybe not. Just speculating here....

  • T2 on February 08, 2012 4:57 PM:

    The 2010 Tea Party phenomenon was caused by a rather large block of voters who woke up one day only to find a unacceptable resident in the White House and that flame was quickly fanned by the GOP Apparatus and Media into a fever - using the ObamaCare is Socialism mantra to dominate the newswires for months up to the elections....where these TeaPartiers turned out in huge numbers to elect morons. The "Progressives" sat on their hands and stewed about not getting everything they wanted.
    The factors this time are just different. Ironically the TeaPartiers now in Congress (and ruining it) will force all but the most staunch Progressives to vote, having seen the alternate. And ironically, the TeaPartiers will find themselves shut out by their own Party, and will likely mimic the "sit on hands" model of the 2010 Progressives. Live by the gun, die by the gun. The vote count swing won't be massive, but it will be enough.

  • CAL on February 08, 2012 5:02 PM:

    I agree with Napoleon-African Americans have watch the disrespect of this President and are rightfully not happy about it. I bet they Black voter turn out will be larger than 2008's.

  • exlibra on February 08, 2012 5:17 PM:

    But it is increasingly clear that a right-bent GOP can no longer pretend it will be able to ignore swing voters and cruise to victory on the power of wildly energized Tea Party folk snake-dancing to the polls to evict the hated Obama. -- Ed Kilgore

    That's why they're getting their "ace up the sleeve" ready for showing in November -- the new regulations disenfranchising the young and the minorities, which are being put into place in every state with a Repub Governor. And, if all else fails, there are always the "right-bent" voting screens. Our efforts to overcome all that will have to be *gigantic*. Anything short of an obvious blowout will be interpreted as a GOP win (by the obliging SCOTUS, if necessary)

  • dalloway on February 08, 2012 5:35 PM:

    Maybe waning enthusiasm in the GOP comes from hearing how stupid their candidates sound. Of course that's because they're spouting the stupid ideas that are the GOP gospel. But the wingnuts never seem to realize that...

  • N. Bates on February 08, 2012 5:39 PM:

    Thanks Ed for some insight into turnout issues. But turnout tendencies aren't good enough if voting is suppressed, people tricked into ennui by Kochtopus double-cross spin, etc. We need to fight that, and hard.

    We need to keep our "stature" uncowed! Tx to Captcha for the usual inspiration.

  • DAY on February 08, 2012 5:48 PM:

    FLOTUS in a sack race is good for a 10 point bump.

  • Ron Byers on February 08, 2012 6:36 PM:

    You all realize that the voter suppression efforts won't amount to a hill of dog do if we get off our asses and make sure everyone of our voters is properly registered and has a voter id. It will take work, but we have months to accomplish it. Of course, we could all set around shaking our fists at the moon, which is what a lot of us want to do, but if we work at it the Republican efforts will be as big a bust as Y2K.

  • Shoeflyin on February 08, 2012 10:03 PM:

    Thanks Ron that's a good reminder. We need to fight the vOter suppression all the way.

  • Peter C on February 09, 2012 9:29 AM:

    I think 'enthusiasm news' like this is important because it establishes the bounds of what results are 'expected'. In 2010, we were told that the Republicans enjoyed a vast 'enthusiasm advantages', so when the results came in that they swung the house by a large margin, the results were neither questioned nor challenged. If, this year, it is obvious that the Republicans are not enthusiastic (either because they nominate 'Mr Mitt 1%' or 'Newt the lunatic philander', or "Ron Paul the delusional racist libertarian' or 'Frothy Rick the anti-contraception crusader'), then it will be harder for them to credibly use paperless voting systems to steal the election (again). We still need to mobilize the 99% and watch the vote and guard against suspicious election anomolies. And, we need to continue to press for reliable, auditable and verifiable election technology and an open and trust-worthy election process.

  • Erikcsw on February 09, 2012 10:18 AM:


    euler hermes kreditversicherung

  • liam foote on February 09, 2012 1:50 PM:

    There is no mention of the enthusiasm of the Hispanic voters, those who tend to prefer Mr. Obama 2:1. Latinos add 600K eligible voters each year, many of whom will be eligible to vote in crucial swing states. But ...

    While Hispanics comprise 16% of the US population, they provide a mere 7% of voters. In the 2010 midterms only 6.6 million out of 21.3 million eligible to vote did so. In that election, this voter rate of 31% fell far below blacks (44%) and Whites (~50%).

    The GOP continues to pander to Latinos, the Rubio-fest in DC today being a good example. But voters in this population are far more likely to have been revolted by the overreach in state legislation and GOP rhetoric of late. Dems can count on the 67% but need to keep a close eye on the enthusiasm or lack thereof.