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There were four basic factors that enabled Mitt Romney to move so quickly from a disastrous loss in SC to a win in FL which made him, once again, the prohibitive favorite for the GOP presidential nomination.
* Money: His (roughly) 5-1 financial advantage in the state was crucial to his ability to “bank” a big lead in early voting and keep Gingrich on the defensive with negative ads. It’s still not clear why Gingrich’s Super-PAC did not spend much more than half the money it had at its disposal in FL. But thanks to a disclosure yesterday, we do know Romney’s Super-PAC began the year with $23 million in the bank, and it made full use of that in FL.
* Debates: It’s hard to overstate how much the debates meant positively to Gingrich in SC, and negatively in FL. That last debate on Jan. 26 was truly a disaster for Newt.
* Opinion-leaders: Romney had explicit support from some key FL opinion-leaders (most importantly in Miami’s Cuban-American community), and less explicit but considerable help from others (notably Sen. Marco Rubio, who rebuked of Gingrich for running an ad accusing Mitt of being anti-immigrant, which Romney mentioned about forty times during one of the debates). And without question, Newt was thrown off balance by the violent criticism he received from national opinion-leaders, particularly those “movement conservatives” who couldn’t be dismissed as RINOs.
* Demographics: Gingrich won several of the same key demographic categories that helped him win SC (e.g., evangelicals and voters who are “very conservative” or are “strong Tea Party supporters”). There just weren’t enough of them in Florida, whose GOP voters are less culturally southern, and less violently conservative ideologically. It also helped Romney, who might have been vulnerable on immigration, that the state’s sizable HIspanic vote (15% of the primary electorate) was dominated by Cuban-Americans and Puerto Ricans who don’t care much about immigration policy.
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T2 on February 01, 2012 9:53 AM:
the results I saw indicated Newt lost the Women's vote substantially to Romney. The Evangelicals may have forgiven Newt for his amoral sex life, but apparently normal women see it different. Even in the Republican party, just getting white racist male votes isn't enough. That said, Newt is only 60 delegates behind Mitt at this point, out of over a 1000 needed to get the nomination. It seems to me that we are at a point where Sarah Palin is either going to get all in for Newt, or she's going to sit it out. Being the "me,me,me" lady she is, I think she may save her ammo for another fight down the line.
DAY on February 01, 2012 10:01 AM:
Americans vote 2-1 for Bud Lite, Velveeta, and Diet Coke.
I recall a 1921 song from the 1948 Truman campaign that the wags altered to, "I'm just MILD about Harry."
Coming soon to a bumper sticker in your neighborhood: "Vote Romney- the lesser of two evils."
Danp on February 01, 2012 10:05 AM:
How is it possible to analyze the demographics of a Florida election without considering age? My guess is that there are a lot of retirees in FL who care about absolutely nothing other than their retirement funds. Oh, and social security/medicare - a subject that never seemed to come up in the contest. Interesting how that works.
skeptonomist on February 01, 2012 10:07 AM:
It's not really possible to decide what has been most important in the primary results. The role of super-pac money is especially important and problematic with respect to implications for the general election. But it is inexcusable to omit racism as a major factor. South Carolina obviously has the most racist Republican electorate of all the states contested so far, and Newt's rhetoric was about as explicitly racist as politicians think they can get away with. We may not see this kind of rhetoric again until March 13 when Alabama and Mississippi (and Hawaii) are on the calendar and by then the race may be over.
Matthew G. Saroff on February 01, 2012 10:15 AM:
I think that you are leaving off a bit: Newt Gingrich is someone who people hate if given the time.
Basically, once Gringrich becomes a national figure, it's only a matter of time before 80% of the American public hates him.
This is what happened: in November 1994, He was the hero of the Republican revolution, but a year later, we was characatured as a crybaby when he shut down government because he felt he was slighted in Air Force 1 seating arrangements. (http://mondaywednesdayfriday.com/wordsearch.php#1995-11-16)
People in South Carolina voted for him he reminded them of that guy who won the Congress in 1994. People in Florida votet against him because he reminded them of the petulant immature asshole who shut down the government in 1995).
R on February 01, 2012 10:15 AM:
Okay, can we talk about something else now? It's bad enough that the primary schedule is designed to dominate the news until the general election takes over. But this particular cast of characters is just plain nauseating. How about, I don't know, NPS officers' love affair with stun guns?
Mitt's Magic Underwear on February 01, 2012 10:31 AM:
Money talks, beee-atches.
Peter C on February 01, 2012 11:57 AM:
You forgot 'lunar colony'. That put Newt in the 'batshit insane' category.
AndThenThere'sThat on February 01, 2012 12:01 PM:
And the 5th factor:
* Newt's promise of making the moon the 51st state. Just as Newt was making headway as a "serious candidate" after SC and surging into the lead in FL polls, that dumbass remark reminded Floridians what a crank Newt really is.
AndThenThere'sThat on February 01, 2012 12:03 PM:
Ha, I see Peter C beat me there. Damn you Captcha
Wyatt on February 01, 2012 12:47 PM:
Ed,
Cubans make up a sizable plurality of Latinos in, for example, Miami, where they're 51% of the mestizo population, but the city has only 6% Puerto Ricans. The other 43% are of other, less-appreciated nationalities. In fact, sometimes it seems just about everyone in Central America has a story about their "tío en Miami, hombre."
schtick on February 01, 2012 3:11 PM:
I have tons of relatives in Florida and they think all the tealiban, including some of their own reps are all batshit crazy. It rather surprised me. Where I come from, and they did, too, it's a republican world where for over 40 years a democrat wasn't even on the ballot for local elections. Nice to know I'm not the only outcast from that area.
It's not that they agree with me, but rather they are seeing it as it is, even with our policy agreements/disagreements. Makes me have some faith in our younger generation. Hopefully it will make a difference with more like they are.
Then I have older relatives down there that are stuck in the ClusterFaux Fake and BS Nuwz crap and I get disgusted and discouraged all over again.