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The whole hep political world is abuzz about the Santorum Sweep last night. So here’s my brief take:
There are obviously two ways to look at Ricky’s Big Night. On the one hand, he ran the table in three reasonably important general-election states after being reduced to an afterthought by most party leaders and the media. His wins in Missouri and Minnesota were by crushing margins. Newt barely showed a pulse (finishing a poor third in CO and a poor fourth in MN), and Mitt showed once against that conservatives aren’t quite ready to “settle” for him. In county after county in MN and CO, Mitt’s performance fell vastly short of his vote in 2008, when he was the flip-flopping “movement conservative” candidate instead of the flip-flopping RINO he’s reputed to be today.
On the other hand, Santorum did not win a single delegate last night (MO was a completely symbolic affair unconnected to the caucus next month in which delegates are selected, which is why nobody but Ricky bothered to campaign there; CO and MN, like Iowa, have multi-stage delegate selection systems in which last night’s results were technically just a “straw poll”). Only about 65,000 votes were cast in CO; 50,000 in Minnesota; and in the one primary, 250,000 in MO. That’s compared to over 1.6 million in Florida.
Whichever of these approaches you take, it is clear Santorum is about to experience a pounding from opinion-leaders unlike anything he’s ever experienced, and that’s saying a lot considering his Google problem. Party elites may not consider him quite as much of a sure general-election loser as Newt, but his relentlessly extremist positions on cultural issues, among which his reputation as an international symbol of anti-gay bigotry is just the tip of the iceberg, are considered a serious problem. Meanwhile, as his weakness in SC and FL showed, Ricky’s strength among right-wing voters last night has not, so far, been exhibited in the South, where Tea Party folk and born-agains hate unions and “welfare” as much as they love Jesus, and Santorum is viewed as something of a Big Government Conservative.
So he has issues, and now he will bear the brunt of the Romney Money Machine and the well-demonstrated willingness of the Gingrich campaign to say and do anything to tear down opponents. The calendar creates a lull before expensive primaries in MI and AZ, two states where Romney has some built-in advantages (MI because it’s his native state, AZ because of its sizable LDS vote). Then comes Super Tuesday (March 6), with its combo platter of expensive primaries and the small caucuses where Ron Paul (who did not have a good showing last night) is concentrating. Everything negative you can say or even imagine about Rick Santorum will have been thoroughly aired between now and March 6. The relatively free ride he’s had as Newt and Mitt have gone after each other like wolverines is coming to an abrupt end, and it will be interesting to see how well he responds. It would certainly help him if his main Super-PAC donor, billionaire Foster Friess, starts writing huge checks.
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DAY on February 08, 2012 11:36 AM:
Speaking of my former senator's "google problem", a headline last night read:
Santorum surging from behind."
Michael on February 08, 2012 11:44 AM:
Hehehe ripe, but what can you expect from supposedly 'true', conservatives...
Sean Scallon on February 08, 2012 11:48 AM:
"(who did not have a good showing last night)"
That's funny, Erick Erickson keeps saying anyone who finishes behind Ron Paul in a primary and or caucus which includes Newt and Mitt last night, should get out of the race. And since Santorum finished behind Paul in Nevada and New Hampshire, I guess that just Ron Paul then to win nomination.
If you think Paul a joke candidate, what does it say about Romney who trailed behind in Minnesota where he took 40 percent of the vote four years ago? Hmmm? You're being awfully charitable to man who got his arse kicked last night, could well lose Saturday in Maine. Do you think he had a good night?
Oh by the way, that 20 percent vote ceiling Ron Paul supposed has? Consider it smashed. I'd say that's the definition of a good night.
Gretchen on February 08, 2012 11:53 AM:
People keep saying Romney has an advantage in MIchigan, but this is the guy who said we should let Detroit go bankrupt. I just can't see him doing well there. The auto industry is their lifeblood.
Joe Friday on February 08, 2012 12:06 PM:
Apply your favorite hip-hop music background:
GO RIC-KY !
GO RIC-KY !
GO RIC-KY !
GO RIC-KY !
Michigander on February 08, 2012 12:26 PM:
I agree with you, Gretchen. Anyone who votes for a candidate because of where said candidate was born doesn't deserve the opportunity to vote.
Danny on February 08, 2012 1:19 PM:
So if we're lucky we'll get to see Romney put the Bush years on trial for a couple of weeks. And if we're really lucky, someone will bring up Ricky wanting to ban birth control. Pass the popcorn.
bobbyd on February 08, 2012 1:20 PM:
Correction: Michigan is Romney's home state. His native state is the State of Deseret.
Rochester on February 08, 2012 1:21 PM:
Look, Rick Santorum is way-y-y outside the mainstream for a lot of people, myself included. In fact, he seems pretty darned offensive to me.
However, calling him "Ricky" is also offensive.
Grow up and be more like Steve Benen, or you're going to lose the adult readership.
schtick on February 08, 2012 2:38 PM:
I said before, the more I hear Ricky talk, the more I can't believe he was ever elected for anything. As far as someone carrying the state they are from, if they are presently in office, people may vote for him just to get him out of the state. Like my friends did in Texas, but then......
What a mess our political system has become. We have no one to blame, but ourselves. As long as we are doing well we don't pay attention and when things get bad for US we start to pay attention, but it's too late for quick fixes and a long road to undo the damage if we can get the prima donnas to undo it. I feel bad for the young people coming into the world today.
MsJoanne on February 08, 2012 3:25 PM:
To quote Flounder (Animal House): Oh, boy! Is this great!
Popcorn's on me! Who's bringing the booze?
Owenz on February 08, 2012 7:29 PM:
Ed,
You only missed one thing about Ricky: he is overpoweringly, staggeringly stupid. A true dimwit. Mitt might be craven and Newt insane, but neither are dumb. Rick Santorum is spectacularly dumb. Should be a good show.
O
sue on February 09, 2012 8:35 AM:
no, he is not dumb exactly. it's more that he is so bound up in his ideological fetters that he refuses to actually think-
no evolution?
no climate weirding?
terry schiavo is not really brain-dead
sex is only for making babies
articles of faith and refusal to consider reality and especially scientific evidence thereof