Political Animal
Blog
The new PPP numbers from Michigan reinforce the phenomenon I discussed earlier today: Rick Santorum is harvesting momentum from a great Tuesday night and some mutually assured destruction between Romney and Gingrich to move well ahead in state thought to be a stronghold for Mitt. But Republican elites are certain to be privately beside themselves at the thought of a guy like Ricky—who sometimes seems as determined to repeal the Second Vatican Council as the New Deal—going up against Barack Obama.
In MI, as nationally, PPP finds Gingrich’s favorability ratios cratering (at 38/47) and Romney’s foundering (at 49/39, a vast deterioration in this state from earlier readings), even as Santorum’s stay all clean and starchy (at 67/23). As Tom Jensen’s analysis aptly notes:
This situation is reminiscent of what happened in Florida right after Newt Gingrich’s big win in South Carolina- he took the lead then quickly lost it in a big way after coming under attack by Romney.
But there’s the rub: will Mitt be willing to go after Ricky the way he did Newt in Florida, at the risk of boosting his own rising negatives? And will the conservative opinion-leaders who were his avid allies in the destruction of Gingrich join in again (very unlikely) or even look aside?
You have to figure the prevailing sentiment in elite GOP circles is that they’d love to see Ricky succumb to foul play, but don’t want their own, or even Mitt’s, fingerprints on the weapon. But there’s not a lot of time for dithering or scruples or wishing and hoping Ricky does himself in: a double Santorum win in MI and AZ on February 28 would be a serious problem for Romney, and for the party. I’m not privy to the internal councils of Republicans, but it’s likely they are waking up to this reality, and will ultimately either unleash Mitt to go hog-wild-negative, or push enough money in his direction to saturate media in these two states with enough positive propaganda to nominate the Infernal Prince of Darkness himself (so long as he promised to cut taxes, bash unions and oppose legalized abortion).
Facebook
Twitter
Josef K on February 13, 2012 2:38 PM:
I don't disagree with anything you've written, but I worry we're all underestimating how volatile Newt/Rick's supporters may be. Its unlikely many of them understand the whole caucus and convention process, and may not react well if their favored son (Rick at the moment, but who knows who they'll turn to next week) doesn't get the nomination. Worse, if Santorum keeps up the conspiracy talk, it might convince some of the wackier ones to take more direct action against Romney.
Its something to watch, I think.
stormskies on February 13, 2012 2:38 PM:
I’m not privy to the internal councils of Republicans, but it’s likely they are waking up to this reality, and will ultimately either unleash Mitt to go hog-wild-negative, or push enough money in his direction to saturate media in these two states with enough positive propaganda to nominate the Infernal Prince of Darkness himself (so long as he promised to cut taxes, bash unions and oppose legalized abortion).
*************
Exactly right Ed. These Repiglicans have not actual values or principles at all. They only want power, period. And whatever it takes to get that power so be it. The end always justifies the means to these pigs.
T2 on February 13, 2012 2:41 PM:
interesting....when Newt was polling strong, the GOP elites were "privately besides themselves".....now the same with Santorum, and of course with Paul. So the GOP elites are freaked out that three of their four candidates could possibly win, and they also do not like Mitt Romney a bit. What a situation, huh :-)
Many have said it, but the pile of ammunition available to go after Newt Gingrich is almost infinite. Santorum just doesn't have the rooms full of hate to mine that Gingrich does. The possible result? Romney moves to the left of Rick, and attacks him for his beastiality comments....makes him look like a idiot. Oh wait, he is an idiot. Is this fun or what?
Steve on February 13, 2012 3:00 PM:
Josh Marshall thinks Romney's home-field advantage in Michigan is overhyped, but I don't know where he gets that from. It's his home state, for Pete's sake, and he won the 2008 primary by 80,000 votes.
The GOP primary electorate skews elderly and many of those voters still remember Romney's father, who was very well regarded. Romney's brother and his ex-wife have been on ballots in the last couple decades so the political name still has currency, even though it's not on every set of lips. There's really no good reason why Romney shouldn't win Michigan easily.
Proudhon on February 13, 2012 3:27 PM:
The Infernal Prince of Darkness might be a good GOP candidate - he's pretty close on most of the social issues, no foreign policy record (but no worse there than Romney or Santorum), and if anyone can run credibly as an outsider, it's Him (although he does provide lodging to a number of former lobbyists).
Maybe Krauthammer will pick up on it - I've heard they're close.
Ronald on February 13, 2012 3:40 PM:
plausible scenario:
Gingrich gets his money pulled. His supporters migrate to Santorum (or most of them do).
Since Ricky has been having to run to the right of Newt, if Newt goes, he can 'tone down' his rhetoric (if he is smart enough to), to more 'Palin-like'. Its easy to run to the right of the Mittster, he would have the tea-baggers, and its a two man race to the convention.
DAY on February 13, 2012 3:57 PM:
Why do "we" give a flying fart in a windstorm who wins Michigan?
Is there anyone in the GOP race that scares us, even a little?
Those "six point advantage" numbers for Obama do not take into account John Paul Jones' "I have not yet begun to fight".
T2 on February 13, 2012 4:11 PM:
"There's really no good reason why Romney shouldn't win Michigan easily."
Exactly Steve....but yet todays polls show him far behind the EvangoRobot Santorum.
thebewilderness on February 13, 2012 4:20 PM:
Rick Santorum is The Infernal Prince of Darkness. I wish someone would point that out to the Republican leadership. He appears to be their compromise anti mitt choice when in reality he is the anti Christ. How's that for a conspiracy theory?
Kilgore Trout on February 13, 2012 4:42 PM:
There's really no good reason why Romney shouldn't win Michigan easily.
Really? Doesn't the op-ed titled "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" ring a bell?
If I was running Rick's Super-PAC I'd spend every penny I could on TV ads reminding folks about that.
Don on February 13, 2012 4:50 PM:
Ok, so this is a thought experiment as much as it is strategy, but if you're Willard, or an Establishment Willard supporter, don't you put the word out to Newtsters' people "hey, we'll go easy on you for a couple months so you can spend Shelly's money if you guys take out the sweater vest?" That way, Ricky goes down without Willard's fingerprints on him.
And if you're the Newtster, you have to take that deal, right? You know your only hope is to be the last remaining non-Morm...er, non-Romney in the race, right? It's a bad deal for Gingrich, but it may be the only deal he has left to make.
Repack Rider on February 13, 2012 5:03 PM:
The GOP plan was to stage n+1 debates to get lots of airtime and exposure for the candidates.
Be careful what you wish for. The more the voters see, the less they like. The more the Clown Posse says, the higher the pile of gaffes to select from. Mr. Obama has won a long string of elections to get where he is, and campaigning is one thing he is obviously good at.
When the time comes, Mr. Obama will stand up and spit into a bucket, let his handlers take his robe, tap the gloves together and come out swinging. He's the champ for a reason, and when was the last time one of these clowns won an election of any kind? They can't even beat each other in the prelims, and they want a shot at the title?
Bring it.
Terry on February 13, 2012 5:55 PM:
All the Republican wannabe candidates, all the primaries, all the polls can't hide the fact that the Republicans are all going to lose big time against Obama and the Democrats in the fall. You can bet on it.
Don K on February 13, 2012 6:24 PM:
I've lived in Michigan more than 33 years now, and I'm going to disagree with the idea that Mitt ought to win Michigan. For the key, look at some of the other questions in the PPP poll. A clear majority of those polled don't consider Mitt to be a Michigander. And why should they? He hasn't lived here on any meaningful basis since he left for college when he was 18. And close to a majority have no opinion of George. For heaven's sake, it's been 43 years since George was governor. I'm 57, and I have no opinion of the man who was governor of New Jersey when I was 14 (Richard Hughes, by the way).
It's true Ronna Romney ran for office (Senator in 1996, against Carl Levin), but she got killed, and that was a lot closer to the golden era of George than we are now.
The only part of Michigan where Romney has a lead is Oakland County, which has a fair minority of socially-liberal Republicans and a county organization (L. Brooks Paterson) that is terrified of a repeat of '08 (Dems won three county offices and almost won the county Board of Commisioners) and probably believes (justifiably so in my opinion) that a Santorum nomination would be most likely to lead to a repeat
John on February 13, 2012 6:59 PM:
I grew up in Michigan and still have relatives there. I don't see why Romney has any particular claim on Michigan. I'm 60 and though I know his dad was governor I couldn't say if that was good or bad.
My sister is a dyed-in-the-wool wingnut and when I ask her about Romney she says her crowd doesn't like Romney at all (I know, one data point).
As pointed out above, I think Romney hurt himself badly with the op-ed about letting Detroit go bankrupt. The car industry has largely recovered, there are more jobs, the state now has a surplus. Contrast that with Romney's bleak vision of the world where millions get thrown out of work. I can't see how anyone back home would vote for him.
thebewilderness on February 13, 2012 9:06 PM:
It is important to remember that little Ricky was one of Newts recruits. How they sort that out I don't know, but they are more likely to cut a deal together tan either of them is with the Mittster.
The Oracle on February 14, 2012 2:34 PM:
Speaking of Michigan, why can't President Obama declare a state of emergency in Michigan statewide and assign an "emergency manager" to handle the situation, just as Gov. Rick Snyder (R-MI) has declared a state of emergency in one Michigan community after another, those predominantly black, assigning "emergency managers" to take charge, negating local elections and the local democratic process in these predominantly-black communities, firing people, cutting budgets, bypassing duly-elected mayors and city council?
President Obama HAS the authority under the Bush-backed, congressional Republican-passed 2006 law that was enacted and signed into law one year after Hurricane Katrina, giving Bush, and any future president, the power to declare a state of emergency in any state and seize control of that state, bypassing the duly-elected governor of that state as well as the state legislature. And per this 2006 law, President Obama, or any other president, doesn't have to wait for a formal request for federal assistance from a governor of a state to handle any emergency in that state, he can declare a state of emergency (like Snyder has already done), step in, assign an "emergency manager" to oversee the federal response, and bypass Snyder and the Michigan legislature and bureaucracy completely.
I know, I know, President Obama won't do this, but per this 2006 law he could do this.
Also, racist Republicans have been working overtime to block blacks from voting (and latinos) before an election, so what makes it any different what Snyder and Michigan Republicans are doing in these "emergency manager"-controlled communities? IOW, blocking voting beforehand is no different than negating the results of the voting afterward, as Snyder is doing in these predominantly-black communities where duly-elected mayors and council members are being un-elected by fiat of Snyder. This sounds like a major civil rights violation, something that the DOJ's Civil Rights Division should be checking out, since predominantly black communities are being targeted, no matter what the reason.