Political Animal


June 18, 2012 10:30 AM Another Tense Monday Morning

By Ed Kilgore

Monday mornings are hard enough anyway, but those this June are especially tough for the chattering classes: could this be the day the Supreme Court delivers the ObamaCare decision? Let’s keep SCOTUSBlog bookmarked!

But another reading of SCOTUS orders and opinions has passed, and nothing on health care yet. It could happen on Thursday. It will almost certainly happen by the end of June, when the current term of the Court will end.

For those who have forgotten all the calculations of how the Court could rule and what the practical implications of the various outcomes might be, Jonathan Cohn has supplied a refresher course. You have at least until Thursday to get it straight.

Ed Kilgore is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly. He is managing editor for The Democratic Strategist and a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Find him on Twitter: @ed_kilgore.


  • Patrick Star on June 18, 2012 10:54 AM:

    Just reading the tea leaves, it looks like it's going to get struck down. I told my 21 year old student son he should take care of any outstanding medical issues now, just in case.

  • c u n d gulag on June 18, 2012 11:07 AM:

    My guess is a 5-4 decision, along irrational/rational lines.

    They'll say ok to the ACA, but not the mandate - to give maximum feckability to Obama and the Democrats in November, and help Mitt and the R's win.

    This way, there's no mandate, the ACA be basically unfunded, and yet it still gives Mitt and the R's some raw, red meat to keep throwing to the base, promising that they'll terminate it with extreme prejudice as soon as they swear their oath to God Almighty on The Bible on Inauguration Day - so help them God!

  • Peter C on June 18, 2012 11:10 AM:

    What the Supreme Court does is outside my sphere of influence. Until they act, it is best if it is also outside my sphere of concern. Zen is good for reducing anxiety.

  • Kathryn on June 18, 2012 11:11 AM:

    Recent comments by Justice Ginsberg indicate sharp disagreements and total rejection of ACA by the conservatives. Justice Kennedy must be a slow learner at best, his pollyannish view of the impact of the Citizens United ruling shows a weak mind easily cowed by Roberts, Thomas, Scalia, and whatshisname, the other Italian Catholic. Roberts showed his true colors when he flubbed the oath of office in January 2009. I so wanted to believe Dalia Lithwich who felt that Roberts cared about the perception of the court, but after handing over the presidency to Bush, Citizen United and now this, it's obvious he does not and smoothly lied during his confirmation hearings. Anyone who decides to skip voting this year because they are disappointed in Obama needs to wake the hell up!

  • c u n d gulag on June 18, 2012 11:26 AM:

    Much as I can't stand the man, Bush v. Gore was not Robert's cluster-feck.

    That one belonged to Rehnquist, the more racist corporatist from an older generation - with more-than-able assistance from everyone's favorite Moderate Conservative, Sandra Day O'Conner, who, upon leaving, let Bush put that putrid corporate hack, Slammin' Sammy Alito, in her place.

  • T2 on June 18, 2012 11:26 AM:

    very clever reading gulag. The Activist Conservative court could be told to keep something for the TeaBaggers to run against in the fall. It seems that common wisdom has concluded the SC will rule against most of ACA, if not all. Still its interesting to me how anxious the White House was to get this on the docket, giving a very confident assessment of its Constitutionality. They could have probably delayed this past the election.

  • Ron Byers on June 18, 2012 1:04 PM:

    I have no clue how the court is going to rule. We might all be surprised. Remember to get at the ACA the court is going to have to throw out a bunch of major precidents and a lot of existing law. I am not sure Kennedy is willing to do that. They others, yep, but not Kennedy.

  • Kathryn on June 18, 2012 3:56 PM:

    Thx Gulag, getting my chief Justices mixed up and actually didn't realize O'Connor went along to get along. Hope Ron Byers read of Justice Kennedy is more accurate than mine, need to do more deep breathing perhaps and let this play out.

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