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On the heels of last week’s Latino Decisions survey, there’s a new NBC/WSJ/Telemundo poll of Latino registered voters that shows the same thing: Barack Obama is slowly but steadily widening his lead in this segment of the electorate amid signs that Mitt Romney may have blown a big opportunity when he got all Tancredo during the GOP primaries.
The new poll showed Obama leading Romney 67/23, as compared to a 66/26 margin last month and a 61/27 margin in May (if you’re keeping score at home, that’s a ten-point boost in Obama’s net margin in two months).
Now the conventional wisdom all along has been that even if Obama does as well as or even better among Latinos than in 2008, lower turnout could blunt or reverse the impact, and given the disproportionate economic battering this demographic has been taking, that’s a strong possibility.
This poll’s assessment of Latino voter enthusiasm is interesting, if murky given the usual problems in how to measure “enthusiasm.” Asked if they were more or less enthusiastic about voting “than in past elections” (which elections?!?), 50% said “more” and 32% said “less.” No telling what that means, but it doesn’t sound like a deeply discouraged voter segment. In a more absolute measure, “interest in the elections” on a scale of 1 to 10, the percentage at the very interested level of “10” is down from 59% at this point in 2008 to 49% today, but those at a level of “7” or higher isn’t that different (83% in 2008, 78% today).
Interestingly enough, Romney’s sharing his Latino problems with his party: respondents to this survey preferred a Democratic-controlled to a Republican-controlled Congress by a 64/24 margin, again representing a sizable net boost from the 58/30 margin in May.
Neil King’s report on the survey for WSJ ended with this note:
If there’s a long-term silver lining for the GOP in the poll, it’s this: Nearly 40% of the respondents said they considered themselves conservatives.
Maybe that’s a “long-term silver lining”, but it’s also a short-term alarm signal: when you’re bouncing around in the 20s with a demographic category that’s nearly 40% self-identified conservative, and you’re running against an incumbent when the economy is terrible, you must be doing something very wrong.
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c u n d gulag on July 25, 2012 5:11 PM:
Mitt, the problem with showing your base that you have cajones when it comes immigration, is when Latino voters come to slice them off.
Equal Opportunity Cynic on July 25, 2012 5:18 PM:
cojón (slang) - testicle
cajón - drawer, box, crate
T-Rex on July 25, 2012 8:31 PM:
Most Latinos consider themselves conservative? Well, so do most Muslim Americans. How has the Republican party responded to this potential base? Well, Ann Coulter uttered an extremely offensive ethnic epithet in her remarks at the 2006 CPAC convention, and when a Muslim Republican challenged her for it later, she sneered "They killed 3000 people, I made a few jokes." How much has the GOP rapport with Muslim American voters improved since then? Ask Michele Bachmann.
Rudy Gonzales on July 25, 2012 11:48 PM:
Call TEA party operative what they are. Republicans are so scared of the TEA fringe, they will not disavow them as radicals and embrace their skewed notions and issues. Look at Texas where Dewhurst will not call Cruz a TEA party radical fanatic. But these radical fanatics back TEA party actions. TEA party extremes use the (R) instead of the (T) when running for office. The top dogs of the fringe showing up in Texas hoping for a killing of Dewhurst, who doesn't have the cajunas to call the TEA party extremes what they really are. Bigots on steroids. These Tactical Egotistical Activist(TEA) hate Obama because the PPACA(Health Care Act) has already benefited the people in insurance coverage for children, extending insurance over pre-existing conditions and making insurance companies use 80 to 85 percent of monies collected for insureds rather than compensation for CEO' and CFO's. And now the CBO says the renamed RomneyCare, PPACA(Health Care Act), will save money. How outstanding is that? It is my contention that TEA-Republican's are astounded that Obama has accomplished so much in such a short period of time. From saving millions of jobs to ridding the world of Bin Ladin, Obama has numerous issues he has accomplished. People must take care in voting this November because TEA-Republicans are using the (R) when they really are (T). I like cajunas instead of cojon or cajon. It's kinda like canicas!