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New York’s Jonathan Chait dissected the two-phased Obama strategy for taking down Mitt Romney well before I did (undermining Romney’s Bain-based “Mr. Fix-It” credentials while showing he’s no friend to middle-class Americans, and then going after the Ryan Budget as a reflection of his personal preferences and hidden policy agenda). So I’m paying close attention to Jon’s guess that Phase II is beginning right now:
Today President Obama talks Medicare in Florida and argues that Mitt Romney will “end Medicare as we know it.” The claim is undeniably true, though keep in mind that “as we know it” is a fairly elastic term. President Clinton promised to “end welfare as we know it,” which didn’t mean simply zeroing out the program but transforming it into something fundamentally different. That’s what the Romney-Ryan plan to transform Medicare into a system driven by private insurance vouchers would do. Ryan has moderated his original proposal by agreeing to include a public option in return for securing the support of Democratic senator Ron Wyden, but it’s still a fairly dramatic reform.
The Obama campaign’s attacks on Mitt Romney’s business record and personal finances will probably continue for a long time. But I think that, when the campaign is remembered in history, they will not be seen as the central element but rather as a prelude. The main event is going to be a fight over the priorities of the Paul Ryan budget.
Now we are talking about Florida here, so it’s possible Obama’s message there is a precursor rather than the beginning of a full-throated assault on the Ryan Budget. But it’s going to happen at some point. And if it happens right away, you can ignore the pundits who will immediately say Obama has “shifted” to the Ryan Budget because the Bain attack line (and the continuing speculation over what Romney’s tax records might conceal, which is a time bomb that will keep ticking without any particular encouragement from the Obama campaign) has “failed.” Wrong again, Batman. This was always going to be a two-phase messaging operation, and we’d be well-advised to consult the polls in September or October before deciding whether it has worked.
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mmm on July 19, 2012 11:24 AM:
So under a president Romney, if you called the White House, would "Jason" in India be answering?
T2 on July 19, 2012 11:49 AM:
one thing I've learned from the last two years of TeaParty politics is that lots of people don't fully realize Medicare is a government program, i.e. Socialist medicine. They just know they sign up at 65, get part A free and PAY for part B.
If they realize the "free" part is going away under Romney, the attack might work. But I suspect the GOP will respond with "ObamaCare is going to kill Medicare if he's elected" and that will be that....both sides do it.
I think finding out that Romney made 20 million in one year and didn't pay a penny tax on it will be more decisive.
smintheus on July 19, 2012 1:55 PM:
Romney's unusually vulnerable on Medicare not just on policy but also because of his Bain history.
Bain and Romney bought Damon Corp. in the early '90s when it was engaged in fraudulent Medicare overbilling. Romney admits he knew about it and that the government was investigating the dubious practices, yet he didn't put a stop to them according to govt. court filings. When asked about the matter in 2002, Romney claimed that he had ended them. He also claimed the opposite, that he hadn't known that Damon was doing anything illegal.
Romney's SEC filings before he sold Damon don't mention the likelihood of a Medicare fine, which would seem to make the SEC filings fraudulent. And in fact the buyer (Corning) did have to pay a huge fine even though unlike Bain Corning immediately put a stop to the fraud.
DisgustedWithItAll on July 19, 2012 2:39 PM:
It's impossible to not be impressed with the genius of Dem strategists in the Obama campaign and in the Super-Pacs telegraphing to the world and the Romney campaign via bloggers like Sargent the exact strategy they're going to use to defeat Romney. Genius. Absolute genius.
Why are Democrats so right on policy and so fucking stupid at politics?
Kathryn on July 19, 2012 2:51 PM:
Also, brilliant Sen. Patty Murray suggesting that the Dems might let all the tax cuts expire in January and then put in a bill after the fact to reinstate the tax breaks for all below $250,000. By all means, give the GOP a 5 month warning to devise a clever strategy, why they can accuse you of raising taxes on the middle class any minute now.
AMS on July 19, 2012 4:53 PM:
The economy, and particularly the jobs picture, is Obama's weak spot. We all know a big reason why the economy is struggling, don't we? Republican obstructionism! I don't know why Obama isn't running against that. It moves beyond "it's Bush's fault" and lays the blame squarely where it should be---on the Republican House. Obama can point to all the legislative initiatives he's proposed (like the American Jobs Act) and economists' predictions of their likely effect on jobs, and the repeated "Nos!" from the Republicans. He can also bring up their brinksmanship on the debt ceiling crisis last summer, which set economic recovery back by months--again, he can cite economists for that proposition.
I am afraid he is going to lose unless he explains clearly and forcefully that his policies have worked when they were implemented, but that since 2010 the GOP has blocked everything he tried to do to improve the economic well-being of Americans in order to make him a one-term President.
Doug on July 19, 2012 6:57 PM:
Of course EVERYBODY knows Mr. Obama had NO intention of EVER bringing up the Ryan Budget in attacks against Romney. Why the very idea is completely ridiculous!
I'm certain not a single Republican EVER thought they'd have to defend the Ryan Budget BEFORE Mr. Chait or Mr. Kilgore wrote about it. No sirree bob! It's not as if Republican strategists can walk and chew gum at the same time. Although...
The same applies to Sen. Murray's remarks. The ONLY way the Bush tax cuts for the obscenely rich can survive is if the Democrats allow Republicans to hold the rest of the tax cuts hostage. The ONLY way to prevent Republican hostage-taking is to say exactly what Sen. Murray said.
I think Mr. Obama has an excellent take on the Bush tax cuts - pass what both parties agree on and quarrel over the rest later. Which means REPUBLICANS will be forced to vote AGAINST maintaining lower tax rates BECAUSE the rich aren't included.
Even with the bias shown by the MSM, I don't believe that's a winning strategy for the GOP...