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So BLS says the economy added 163,000 net new jobs in July (seasonally adjusted, which is a very important distinction during the summer months)—172k in the private sector, reduced by a 9k loss in government jobs. Yet unemployment ticked up slightly to 8.3% (it actually rose less than the indicated one-tenth-of-a-percent but looked higher due to rounding). Adjustments to reports for May (upward) and June (downward) pretty much canceled each other out.
The jobs number, which came in well above the consensus prediction of 100k, is the best since February. It greatly diminishes the credibility of widespread Republican cheerleading for a double-dip recession prior to the election. But the stubbornly high unemployment rate, with which Americans are far more familiar than with job growth or GDP statistics, remains a big problem for Obama.
I would also guess that the better-than-expected jobs numbers will give the Fed the excuse it wants to do nothing to further stimulate the economy. That could matter much more than these numbers in the long run, don’t expect much of anyone to raise their eyes from the next two steps down the road between now and November.
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Ebenezer Scrooge on August 03, 2012 9:14 AM:
Ed is the professional pol. But I don't think that most Americans directly respond to jobs numbers. They respond a lot more to their experience: Do I have a job? Do my friends? Is my job safe? Did I get a raise?
On the other hand, I do agree that the chattering classes are very aware of the jobs numbers, and they thus affect the discourse.
stormskies on August 03, 2012 9:23 AM:
Exactly why should this be a 'problem' for Obama when in fact he has tried to do everything he can to create jobs that have been met by Repiglican blocking him at every turn ? Remember the Jobs Act ? The 'problem' should be for the Repiglicans, not Obama.
Tom B. on August 03, 2012 9:30 AM:
Oh, the Fed will take action. On or shortly after the first Wednesday following the first Tuesday in November. Not before, no matter what statistics come out.
Ron Byers on August 03, 2012 9:42 AM:
I am not sure there is all that much the Fed can do right now, but their inaction is obviously political.
I hate SOBs who would watch people suffer for political advantage. Utterly unAmerican.
T2 on August 03, 2012 9:54 AM:
yes, the Fed is political....unfortunately populated by Republicans for years which is part of the reason we are in this mess. They are killing time until after the election, at which point they'll either do nothing or very little. Unless Romney is president - his overlords will demand Bernanke's head and they'll move forward with more poorly planned and excuted ideas that will send us back into Recession.
Diane Rodriguez on August 03, 2012 10:38 AM:
I'm thinkng that "tax the average guy so the rich can get richer" line is working better for Obama than than job numbers will work for Romney. As E. Scrooge points out, People don't pay attention unless it directly effects them.
I'm rooting for a continuing descent of Romney's likeability numbers. I'm amazed that except for his immediate family, anyone actually likes this asswipe. Unfortunately, that's probably a much bigger influence on voting than actual issue analysis.
Peter C on August 03, 2012 11:24 AM:
So, we've got a mixed message: more jobs created than expected, but an up-tick in the unemployment rate.
I'm hoping that the GOP can't make too much out of this. They must not be seen to be rooting for bad news (even though they certainly are).
A non-story about unemployment clearly plays against their hand. Romney can't use it to divert attention from his taxes
Joe Friday on August 03, 2012 11:55 AM:
"I would also guess that the better-than-expected jobs numbers will give the Fed the excuse it wants to do nothing to further stimulate the economy."
The Fed's gonna wait until they see the whites of their eyes, in the soup lines.
berttheclock on August 03, 2012 11:57 AM:
Ed, you should really pick up the excellent article by Jonathan Chait which is up front and center over at Huffpo. He addresses the fact the Elites in DC really are not concerned with high unemployment. So many inside of the Beltway, either, know little about the common person in this land or collectively could care less about their plight.
Anonymous on August 03, 2012 12:16 PM:
"Exactly why should this be a 'problem' for Obama when in fact he has tried to do everything he can to create jobs that have been met by Repiglican blocking him at every turn? Remember the Jobs Act? The 'problem' should be for the Repiglicans, not Obama."
Exactly exactly exactly... Obama is doing GREAT!!! Repiglicans of course are going to say NO to everything they are the party of NO and party of DO NOTHING. Repiglicans are the complete problem, they obviously didn't and don't do ANYTHING!!! I wouldn't be one bit suprised if the Repiglicans just completely didn't return from their "summer break", just stayed home and said were done for the year and don't come back to work. Repiglicans seriously might as well just QUIT since they aren't going to a da*n thing the rest of the season except say NO.
T2 on August 03, 2012 12:54 PM:
The states with GOP Governors have been laying off state workers at a record pace in order to contribute purposely to the unemployed numbers. If Romney wins, they just magically open their "Rainy Day" funds, hire the workers back (at lower wages and less/no health insurance) and ! Voila ! Romney solves the unemployment problem.
IF Obama is re-elected, they just lay more people off.
mb on August 03, 2012 1:22 PM:
"the better-than-expected jobs numbers will give the Fed the excuse it wants to do nothing to further stimulate the economy. "
Seems like there ought to be a Constitutional right not to be continually screwed. Guess not.
To those (e.g., @T2) who think the main problem is the Republican mindset controlling the Fed:
1. The problem is not a "Republican" mindset, per se, it is a Conservative mindset. Granted, most R's, these days, are Cons, but the nut of the problem (no pun intended) is Conservatism.
2. Obama had a chance to change the leadership at the Fed. He passed. I'd suggest that the degree to which Obama has failed on the economy is concomitant with the degree to which his policies have either maintained the status quo, e.g., retaining Bernanke, or allowed Conservatives sway over policy, e.g., minimizing the stimulus or ditching the public option. Hate Republicans all you want, but be clear, the problem is Conservatism.
Doug on August 03, 2012 7:42 PM:
I'd like to point out that this is the first time since WWII that Republicans have placed their party above the welfare of the country. Sure, individual Republicans have voted against the country's best interests before, but this is the very first time the entire Republican Congressional delegation united to prevent assistance to their fellow citizens during times of crises, natural and man-made.
Ryan, Cantor et al can blather about the danger of the deficit and debt all they want; their actions in running up that debt and in preventing any reduction in the deficit via tax increases show them as the unpatriotic, pathological lying poltroons they are in reality.