Political Animal
Blog
September 11, 2012 5:02 PM
A Rhetorical Stimulus Package
This is really interesting news from Gallup:
The U.S. Gallup Economic Confidence Index surged to -18 for the week ending Sept. 9, up 11 points from -29 the prior week. This puts the index near the high point for the year after 2 ½ months when, weighed down by continued high unemployment, the index had languished well below -20….
The U.S. Gallup Economic Confidence Index surged to -18 for the week ending Sept. 9, up 11 points from -29 the prior week. This puts the index near the high point for the year after 2 ½ months when, weighed down by continued high unemployment, the index had languished well below -20.
At -18, the index is also on par with the highest levels seen since the start of Gallup Daily tracking in January 2008, although this has proved a difficult barrier for the index to break. The index has reached -16 or -17 just a handful of times in weekly averages, only to quickly recede.
Last week’s 11-point jump is also the biggest one-week improvement in the Gallup Economic Confidence Index since its inception, although it roughly matches the 10-point gain that occurred the week after the killing of Osama bin Laden in May 2011.
Wow. Gallup makes it clear the reason for this improvement in economic confidence is very simply the Democratic Convention:
It appears that the spark for the dramatic rise in Americans’ economic confidence last week was the Democratic National Convention. A review of Gallup’s nightly tracking results shows that the index was consistently near or below -25 each night in late August and early September, but then sharply improved on Sept. 4, the first night of the convention, to -18.
Confidence then held at or near -18 through Sunday, despite the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ mixed August unemployment report Friday morning showing continued weak jobs growth.
And even more interestingly, this big boost was entirely generated by Democrats and independents:
More specifically, the convention appears to have given Democrats and, to a lesser degree, independents, fresh optimism about the economy. Democrats’ confidence for the week spanning the convention averaged +24, up 17 points from +7 the prior week. Confidence was up 13 points among independents, but was virtually unchanged among Republicans.
Considering how many voters didn’t watch the convention at all, those who did were clearly pretty revved up.
But here’s the thing: this isn’t just some poll; this is a widely-discussed economic indicator followed by investors. Rising economic confidence, if sustained, can actually become to some extent a self-fulfilling prophecy!
So finally, Team Obama has figured out a way to provide a little pre-election stimulus: three days of speeches. Go figure.
Facebook
Twitter
Doug on September 11, 2012 5:18 PM:
Considering the damage the likely upcoming (in)action by Republicans in Congress; ie, "fiscal cliff", we probably need all the good news we can get now.
T2 on September 11, 2012 5:22 PM:
three days of GOOD speeches by people we LIKE giving us REAL facts. As opposed to three days of speeches full of easily proven lies by people we don't like. And the American public feels pretty good about one, not so good about the other. That's a good sign.
BC on September 11, 2012 5:58 PM:
Also, Dems had lots of happy, engaged people in the arena, which made viewers more engaged as well. Didn't see the GOP convention, but heard that pans of audience showed a bored, unengaged audience as the speeches were going on. TV viewer take cues from the people at the event.
c u n d gulag on September 11, 2012 6:24 PM:
To quote that great American fictional hero, Gomer Pyle, USMC - "Soooprise, soooooprise, SOOOOOOOOOOOOOPRISE!.
Americans seem to prefer the message that "We all built this together," over "Hey, I built MINE ON MY VERY OWN WITHOUT ANY OF YOUR HELP - SO, FECK YOU AND YOUR'S - GET YOUR OWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:
Hmmm...
I wonder why the Republican message isnt't exactly being embraced by the American people.
dweb on September 11, 2012 9:25 PM:
When I saw that BIG jump in economic confidence even as the August job report was whacking Obama, my first thought was....the only REAL thing I can recall in the last couple of days was Clinton's speech in which he told people...."Hang in there....I can FEEL the turnaround coming."
Couple that with people taking stock of whether they are better off than four years ago and suddenly they realize, Hey, I AM better off...or at least things are generally better than they were when Obama inherited the giant mess he was handed.
The convention reminded people (surprising that they needed any reminding) that Obama had really been handed a giant mess when he started and Clinton helped explain what he did, often in the face of intense GOP opposition to save the auto industry, bail out Wall Street, and pass a stimulus bill. It wasn't perfect, but they are recognizing that HE did it and that the GOP's so called Plan has no form or substance and that it probably will do still more harm if they vote for Romney Ryan.
So again, I think the Clinton speech more than any other turned the mood positive economically and for the Democrats
bob h on September 12, 2012 5:48 AM:
The strong stock market encourages a "wealth effect" and encourages people to spend.