Political Animal


September 02, 2012 12:48 AM Morning headlines

By Kathleen Geier

Here are a few stories that are making news headlines this morning:

— Bad news for Mitt Romney: a new Reuters poll suggests that his post-convention bounce was modest and is likely to be short-lived.

— Forecasting models by political scientists are often surprisingly accurate about predicting election outcomes, and this year, most models are projecting an Obama victory in November.

— Paul Ryan plays cornhole with 11-year old boy. As Beavis and Butthead would put it, “heh heh.”

— Archbishop Desmond Tutu is calling for Tony Blair and George W. Bush to be charged with war crimes for their actions during the Iraq War, and argues that, when it comes to prosecuting such crimes, there is a double standard for western and non-western leaders. I say, +1 to that!

— The Washington Post looks at the causes of unemployment in our current Great Recession. The most likely culprit appears to be an overhang of mortgage debt.

— And finally, check out this awesome interactive article in the New York Times, “A History of New York in 50 Objects,” consisting of a fascinating potpourri of items selected by historians and museum curators.

Kathleen Geier is a writer and public policy researcher who lives in Chicago. She blogs at Inequality Matters. Find her on Twitter: @Kathy_Gee


  • SadOldVet on September 02, 2012 10:38 AM:

    Archbishop Desmond Tutu is calling for Tony Blair and George W. Bush to be charged with war crimes for their actions during the Iraq War, and argues that, when it comes to prosecuting such crimes, there is a double standard for western and non-western leaders. I say, +1 to that!

    I say, +25 to that!

    Kathleen - appreciate your work on this site. Any chance you could become the full time blogger here and get rid of the DLC/DINO/Repuke-Lite Kilgore?

  • c u n d gulag on September 02, 2012 10:47 AM:

    I donít see a couple of things that we should see:
    A dirty water dog (thatís a hotdog from a street vender, for you non-NYers).

    A sewer alligator.*

    A subway token Ė they have the Metrocard instead. Feh!

    And a sewer/subway rat the size of a Volkswagon.**

    *Whatís history without at least one myth?
    **Ok Ė a slight exaggeration. But only just... Trust me - other NYers will back me up on this.

  • Skip Intro on September 02, 2012 11:01 AM:

    Why is it surprising that political science's forecasting models are actually good at forecasting elections?

    Only journalists believe the world is random and unpredictable.

  • Hedda Peraz on September 02, 2012 11:07 AM:

    Sports and politics are both open to argument and spin and interpretation.
    The hookers and the columnists work the sidelines for spare change.

  • Leopold Von Ranke on September 02, 2012 12:11 PM:

    You know, in certain parts of Ohio (Columbus and southeast thereof) "cornhole" is a major pass time. Also a little miffed by you pinko's taking Mr. Ryan to task about saying that his marathon time was three hours instead of four. Even if you accept the Republican chronology for the length of time the universe has existed (

  • Leopold Von Ranke on September 02, 2012 12:14 PM:

    . . .less than 1000 years) an hour is quibbling.

  • The Bain of his existence on September 02, 2012 12:24 PM:

    "The New York attorney general is investigating whether some of the nationís biggest private equity firms have abused a tax strategy in order to slice hundreds of millions of dollars from their tax bills, according to executives with direct knowledge of the inquiry.

    The attorney general, Eric T. Schneiderman, has in recent weeks subpoenaed more than a dozen firms seeking documents that would reveal whether they converted certain management fees collected from their investors into fund investments, which are taxed at a far lower rate than ordinary income.

    Among the firms to receive subpoenas are Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Company, TPG Capital, Sun Capital Partners, Apollo Global Management, Silver Lake Partners and Bain Capital, which was founded by Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee for president. Representatives for the firms declined to comment on the inquiry...."



  • bluestatedon on September 02, 2012 12:25 PM:

    "DLC/DINO/Repuke-Lite Kilgore?"

    Are you being sarcastic or are you really that stupid?

  • Bain of his existence on September 02, 2012 12:46 PM:

    Nothing like some mid-western blogs to call Paul Ryan on his deceitfulness--I love googling different ones. Found this one:


  • Bain of his existence on September 02, 2012 12:48 PM:

    Nothing like some mid-western blogs to call Paul Ryan on his deceitfulness--I love googling different ones. Found this one:


  • TCinLA on September 02, 2012 12:52 PM:

    To Tutu's list, I would add: Dick Cheney, Colin Powell, Condoleeza Rice.

    As to the idea "it's no big deal" for Ryan to fib about his marathon time, you obviously know no marathon runners. For them, that's worse than any lie in his speech. A Very Bid Deal Indeed.

    Sad Old Vet: I mostly respect almost all you have to say here and at other blogs, and agree with you, but it's time to STFU with the "DLC/DINO/Repuke-Lite Kilgore?"

  • c u n d gulag on September 02, 2012 1:29 PM:

    Sad Old Vet,
    What TCinLA said.

  • SadOldVet on September 02, 2012 1:48 PM:

    @TCinLA & c u n d gulag...


    Harold Ford, Jr.
    Zell Miller
    & other like minded former employers of Ed Kilgore...

  • c u n d gulag on September 02, 2012 2:12 PM:

    I agree with you most of the time.
    I love ya.
    I hear you.
    We hear you.
    I get it.
    We get it.

    Speaking for myself, I'm just kind of tired of hearing about it all of the time.
    I actually have no problem when you do it when Ed's doing the posting - but to complain about someone behind their back to another poster seems kind of wrong to me.

    If we don't like what he writes, we tell him. I certainly don't agree with him all of the time.

    If we continue not to like what he writes, some/most of us will leave.
    That's the "magic of the marketplace" on the internet.

    Besides, unlike Ed, I don't think either Harold Ford Jr. or Zell Miller would last long posting at WaMo, so there's also that to consider in Ed's favor.

  • Neildsmith on September 02, 2012 2:18 PM:

    The problem with our economy is "excessive mortgage debt" according to the WaPo.

    So, of course, the answer to this problem is...

    "Michael Woodford, a Columbia University professor... encouraged the Fed to consider more direct plans to subsidize lending to consumers and small businesses ó reaching directly into the real economy."

    More consumer debt. I'm so confused.

  • R on September 02, 2012 3:09 PM:

    What c u n d gulag said @2:12. Really, instead of name-calling and accusations of guilt by association, it would be more interesting to see specific disagreements with particular things Ed says, in civil discourse.

    But yes, Kathleen is great.

  • c u n d gulag on September 02, 2012 3:42 PM:

    And yes, R, I agree - Kathleen is GREAT!

  • anon on September 02, 2012 8:01 PM:

    One of the best links from Huffpo today, with some convention-related in-depth reporting, and more, from Amy Goodman's team:


  • comedic relief? on September 02, 2012 8:27 PM:

    One of the best comments on the web:

    Lyin' Paul Ryan's going to have lots of penance to do...how about 10,000 hail Mary's to start? Does he go to confession after the election?

  • zandru on September 02, 2012 9:27 PM:

    Paul Ryan "plays cornhole"?!?

    Really? I have no clue as to what that could possibly mean, and I'm afraid to google it, for fear of being followed by raunchy porno ads for all eternity. Would one of you kind folks enlighten me on what "playing cornhole" is? It sounds seriously nasty.

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    Audio engineering is a promising vocation that delivers immense opportunity in movie, video manufacturing, sound broadcasting and marketing. Audio engineers use a quantity of recording devices these as superior-tech microphones that are necessary to document even the slightest versions of audio.

    The basic idea of engineering relates to creating bridges, buildings, roads and equivalent type of get the job done. Most people today do not think of audio engineering as a type of conventional engineering. Even so, it is a person of the highest spending work opportunities and has numerous profitable people today doing work in the discipline.

    Audio conferencing has certainly not had a technologies champion. The marketplace leader historically was the lethargic AT&T whose when revolutionary Bell Labs dabbled with web site technologies and then broke apart. The Toddler Bells carried on this custom. Consequently, the community has in no way had an modern advocate. A new breed of entrepreneurial innovators is beginning a populist revolution.

  • Robert Waldmann on September 03, 2012 5:44 PM:

    To paraphrase Yogi Berra forecasting "is difficult especially about the future." The models due an excellent job of backcasting past election results which were available to the forecasters. Models which use fundamentals (that is which don't use polls) provide terrible almost exactly worthless forecasts. Nate Silver demonstrates that there is virtually no correlation between forecasts based on fundamentals and presidential election outcomes. http://nyti.ms/TePvWh

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