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A New York Times post by Tom Edsall late last night makes an essential point about swing voter categories, and particularly the non-college educated “white working-class vote” that is supposedly the target of both parties this year: it varies significantly by region. National numbers for this demographic are distorted by the disproportionate GOP direction of southern white voters. Elsewhere, Democrats are not doing as poorly as the stereotypes suggest, as Edsall observes from last week’s Public Religion Research Institute report:
Among southern working class whites, Romney leads by 40 points, 62-22, an extraordinary gap.
The story in the rest of the country is different. In the West, where Colorado and Nevada are battleground states, Romney leads by a modest 5 points, 46-41. In the Northeast, which Obama is expected to sweep, except perhaps for New Hampshire, Romney holds a 4-point advantage among working class whites, 42-38. In the Midwest, where Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin are in play, Obama actually leads among working class whites by 8 points (44-36).
This is why Republicans have all but conceded Pennsylvania, which is a state whose demographics (disproportionate number of elderly white voters) always tempt the GOP until Election Day nears. And it’s why the Midwest was such a focus for the Obama campaign during the convention.
Edsall doesn’t mention levels of unionization as a factor in the regional disparities affecting the white working-class vote, but it obviously matters, as does Romney cartoon-character corporate villain persona. Southern white working-class voters may not like Daddy Warbucks types personally, but thanks to the ancient dependence of the region on “outside” investment, they are used to viewing such people (whether they are “yankees” or foreigners) as essential if resented sources of economic development.
If the race tightens even more down the stretch, regional and even single-state variations in key demographic groups are going to matter a lot, so it’s a good idea to get used to thinking about them now.
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Ron Byers on September 24, 2012 10:23 AM:
Excellent insight, Ed. Most people think that voters don't change from state to state, but they are wrong. Regional variations are extremely important. It is that variation that makes us who we are.
Ronald on September 24, 2012 10:26 AM:
"Southern white working-class voters may not like Daddy Warbucks types personally, but thanks to the ancient dependence of the region on “outside” investment, they are used to viewing such people (whether they are “yankees” or foreigners) as essential if resented sources of economic development."
I thought this was an interesting observation- that the Southern 'working class' views the wealthy class just as they want to be seen, as 'enablers' to the economy.
Whereas in most of the rest of the country, there is much more focus on the '1%er' aspect.
Again, an interesting observation- especially given your history 'down south'.
DAY on September 24, 2012 10:33 AM:
Envy and Bigotry are two boils festering on the body politic.
The first- "Who does he think he is, goin' to Harvard, teachin' Constitutional Law?"
The second- well we all know about Southern White Men. . .
boatboy_srq on September 24, 2012 10:40 AM:
@Ronald:
When (as is often the case in the South) your choices are working for The Man for peanuts, and not working at all, while you may not like where your paycheck is coming from at least you're getting a paycheck. In the land of "personal responsibility" bringing home the bacon is all-important.
Between that, and the presumption that actually paying folk a fair wage, and treating them like human beings, will make all those "job creators" run for friendlier climes (all of which is fantasy - when Big Biz decides it's more cost-effective to send your job to India/Malaysia/China/Ukraine there's no business-friendly public policy in the world that'll change that) there's a strong tendency to support such people built into the local economy and the culture.
The "1%er" perspective comes more from working where one is actually treated like a valuable resource, and watching how the 1% treats others - not necessarily those around you (though that does happen), but real people you could associate names with if you did a bit of digging.
MuddyLee on September 24, 2012 10:45 AM:
In 2008 people said the white southern males liked McCain's military service, but they liked Bush's national guard service in 2000 and 2004 compared to Gore's and Kerry's Vietnam service? In my opinion, the white southern males like republicans because of - racism. They don't want somebody who is a minority or who they think is going to cater to minorities.
Peter C on September 24, 2012 10:46 AM:
I recently moved to Texas from the midwest (and more recently New Jersey) and I'm struck by the antipathy here towards the Democratic Party. I had a small taste of this in New Jersey, where the Democratic Machine in Newark can be heavy handed and corrupt. But what happened in Texas to make the Democratic Party so hated? My impression (from a distance) was that Ann Richards was popular in her day (so it is hard to see it as backlash against the civil rights fight). Certainly, Texas was Bush's power-base, but this seems more than triumphalism; it feels like active mistrust. Can anyone illuminate what is behind t?
c u n d gulag on September 24, 2012 10:49 AM:
"Southern Man" by the great Neil Young:
"Southern man
better keep your head
Don't forget
what your good book said
Southern change
gonna come at last
Now your crosses
are burning fast
Southern man
I saw cotton
and I saw black
Tall white mansions
and little shacks.
Southern man
when will you
pay them back?
I heard screamin'
and bullwhips cracking
How long? How long?
source: http://www.lyricattack.com/n/neilyounglyrics/southernmanlyrics.html
The racism in the Southern white male is so strong, that even a rich Yankee Carpetbagger like Mitt Romney will get their vote.
Fortunately, other parts of the nation have some semblance of sanity.
T2 on September 24, 2012 11:21 AM:
@ Peter C - Texas used to be totally Dem. Along came the Civil Rights act and the tables turned to GOP, and after a few years the Dem majority was overtaken. So basically once racism was officially declared against the law, rural white Texans turned to the GOP (which apparently is the only haven for racists). However it is interesting to note that in DFW, Houston, Austin and San Antonio - the major urban areas - Dems are much more prevalent....hence the redistricting fever pushed by Rick Perry and the TX GOP/TP.
Peter C on September 24, 2012 11:36 AM:
Thanks @T2.
So, we made their hate illegal, eh? And, if and when racism fades, they're always be homophobia to take its place once marriage equality makes it illegal to hate gays.
Our hope is with the young; you have to be taught to hate.
grandpa john on September 24, 2012 11:41 AM:
when Big Biz decides it's more cost-effective to send your job to India/Malaysia/China/Ukraine
This is exactly what happened here in the south with our once flourishing textile industry.
Every town, or village of a few thousand had a textile mill and a couple of shirt plants, all non-unionized of course. Once the exodus started in the 60's it grew into a tidal wave.. Now our landscape is littered with old abandoned mills but we still don 't have the "evil" unions.
Mavor on September 24, 2012 12:27 PM:
In regards to Southern whites, peckerwoods and crackers, my eyes were opened about them in 2003 when I moved from L.A. to New Orleans and then Magnolia MS after Katrina. They not only will be satisfied with minimum wage jobs, they also want to have preferential consideration for those jobs over African Americans. They are Republicans for social reasons rather than economic reasons. In a small Southern town being a Democrat in 2012 brings with it a great deal of social disapproval down at the First Baptist Church.
jjm on September 24, 2012 12:30 PM:
White working class means what: that your whiteness trumps your economic interests?
Mitch on September 24, 2012 1:34 PM:
I have to disagree with the Commenters who seem to think the self-destructive voting behavior of the Southern white working class is due mostly to racism.
I'm a child of the South, a lot of folks down there (and elsewhere) are racist. But that's only a part of the reason for working class Southerners hurting themselves as they cheerfully vote for the GOP.
One onter, lesser, part of the Southern addiction to "conservatism" is the fact that the Democrats long ago lost the PR war. I have had more than a few Southern friends gasp, "How can you be a Democrat? You believe in Socialism! That's un-American!" And trying to explain anything to them is, unfortunately, a waste of breath. Their ears and their minds are already closed. I still try, but I've only scored a couple of converts over the years. It's my voice against the entirety of the conservative media machine.
In my opinion they mostly vote against their interest due to religion. The GOP has set itself up as the Party of Christianity - rhetorically at least. Preachers and congregations alike will tell you (they have told me often enough) that one cannot be a Democrat and a good Christian.
Abortion and homosexuality are pretty much the only sins that matter. Also, Dems generally believe in modern science and do not hate people of other faiths or atheists/agnostics. To these Southerners, if you support the Dems then you support these "evil" things. So you are at best a "back sliding" Christian. More likely, you aren't even "saved" at all, you just pretend to be Christian to fit in.
Preachers make these types of statements from the pulpit very often, and Southern Christians talk about these things pretty much constantly outside of the church. To many - probably most - people in the South, the Democratic Party is defined by these "un-Christian" activities and beliefs.
My father has stated, "I agree with the Democrats about a lot of things. They seem to care more about the working class, where the Republicans only care about the very rich. But I can't vote Democrat because of abortion, and I don't see how you could, either, son."
TCinLA on September 24, 2012 1:35 PM:
White southerners have been tugging their forelock for Ol' Massa since they were first transported there as prisoners from England. As to their hatred of Obama, the only "advantage" any of them ever had was being born white. And now that's going, going....
Ron Byers on September 24, 2012 1:55 PM:
Mitch
I think you are basically right, but you will never win over the lazy liberals who want to blame race for everything.
Democrats long ago gave up the South. The big boys in Washington don't need them, so they have let the Republicans have them.
What the South needs is a progressive party that is big on education, opportunity and permanent job creation. That party would be good for America in general, so Democrats ought to be interested, but such a party would require Democrats to come to grips with evangelicals, the way they have with Catholics, but that would remove one of their pet "monsters" in the closet.
Living in an old established suburb in a boarder state I rub shoulders with Republicans and Democrats, Catholics and evangelicals, urban and rural, rich and poor, and blacks and whites on a daily basis. There are people of good will in every group, but the tribal nature of our current politics doesn't allow us to recognize the good in members of the "other" tribe unless we encounter them regularly enough to call them exceptions to the general rule.
Doug on September 24, 2012 3:59 PM:
Mitch and Ron Byers, whether bigotry is shown via racism, religious discrimination or based on sexual orientation, it's still bigotry.
While I agree that saying ALL bigotry in the southern states is based on racism is intellectually lazy, there does seem to be something in the society itself in those states that almost relishes maintaining attitudes that can only be described as bigoted.
I know societies are very resistant to change and I've always presumed that when those southern states developed a society based almost solely on slavery, tried their damnedest to justify that slavery, fought a war to maintain that slavery, and resisted, to some extent to this day, the effects of losing that war, that society would develop such a resistance to outside influences that it would be extremely difficult to change it.
Perhaps that "resistance" to change and the huge effert to effect it is more to blame than anything else?
Mitch on September 24, 2012 4:39 PM:
@Doug,
There's a word for the Resistance to Change that you mention. That word is Conservatism. It is the belief that because "This is the Way Things have Always been done, then This is the Way that Things Must be done."
You are correct that bigotry is still bigotry. I (a white boy from a very poor family in Kentucky, living in California for the past decade) have experienced both types, religious and racist.
I have been an atheist since my mid-teens, although it took me years to be able to admit it, due to the absolute hatred and contempt people in the South show to atheists. I was even treated horribly by certain teachers at my high school, who knew of my lack of faith and despised me for it. Now, in my early 30's, I still encounter that hate, pretty much every time I speak to folks from back home.
I have been a target of racists, due to my high school relationship to a beautiful, brilliant young woman who happened to be black. I was physically assaulted (even by adults), had bricks thrown at me, and am still referred to as a "****er-lover" by idiots from Appalachia, even though it's been fifteen years.
And, as a teen, I had nobody to go to for help. For people like me, living in the South is literally a battle against the entire society, and one that cannot be won.
The point that I was trying to make is this: Believing that the bad decisions of the Southern working class voter are based solely on racism is something of a cop-out. The bulk of our society (even in the South) understands that racism is Evil.
Conversely, the bulk of society is convinced that obeying ones religious convictions is always Good. It has always been this way, which is the reason why, historically, religions have been able to get away with heinous behavior of a nearly unlimited nature. See: European History circa 400-1900 AD. Or, to quote Steven Weinburg, "With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."
Although I would replace the word "religion" in that quote with "blind belief" since blind belief in political ideologies (See: Hitler, Stalin, Mao) is every bit as bad as any religion.
IMHO faith is no virtue. Belief without evidence (in anything) is the greatest sin that the human mind is capable of, because such belief often brings about pain, suffering and death.
casino implosion on September 24, 2012 4:48 PM:
Not only is it lazy of liberals to blame the South's apparent lack of self-interest on racism and religious bigotry, it's dangerous, because it means that we're getting high on our own supply.
Read WJ Cash's "The Mind Of The South" and David Fischer's "Albion's Seed".