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September 19, 2012 9:42 AM Reminder

By Ed Kilgore

Amidst predictions that Mitt’s “Boca Moment” has finally ended any realistic hope for a Romney victory, it’s time for a reminder that at this particular juncture of American political history, there is almost nothing a major-party presidential candidate can do—short of calling on Space Aliens to come down and rule us—that could force his or her vote below 45%. A significant majority of voters who currently plan to pull the lever for Romney say they are voting against Obama more than they are voting for Mitt, and that falls far short of the actual number who would vote for Bobo the Simple-Minded if he were on the GOP ticket. Rick Santorum, who says things far worse than what Romney said in Boca, every day, as a matter of deep personal conviction, would be at 45% or above. And that’s a level of support at which it would be foolish to conclude victory is out of sight given the possibility of future events with this much time left, aside from the fact that we have seen no evidence yet that this incident has had any effect on public opinion.

So in my opinion, the Boca Moment is significant not because it signals the end of the Romney campaign (though if he loses, I’m sure some insta-book will say so), but as yet another indication of Mitt Romney’s sick (and I think that is the only word for it) relationship with his own party, wherein he has to go off in secret or use encoded messages to whisper the words his own voting “base” wants to hear. If he does manage to win, this sick relationship will dominate American politics for the immediate future. And if he loses, the GOP’s ascendent conservative wing now has all the evidence it needs to blame its defeat on this faithless lover, and there will be hell to pay for all of us.

Ed Kilgore is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly. He is managing editor for The Democratic Strategist and a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Find him on Twitter: @ed_kilgore.

Comments

  • Ron Byers on September 19, 2012 9:57 AM:

    Cheery post Ed. Perhaps we should all be considering suicide given the depressing reality of modern American politics.

  • rip on September 19, 2012 10:06 AM:

    I agree. The floor for both parties anymore is about 45% , and there is a stubborn 4 or 5% that won't commit until the final days of the race. The days of double digit landslides are over.

    The best scenario for Obama is to be consistently at 50% - 51% in most of the polling through election day.

    Even if he doesn't, if Romney can't do better than 46% in the polling, his floor and ceiling are likely to be only a point or two apart. Contrary to the wishful thinking of conservatives, undecideds do not routinely break for the challenger, but to the candidate who looks more like the winner.

  • c u n d gulag on September 19, 2012 10:08 AM:

    Unless President Obama wins convincingly, there will be people in certain (many?) states, wanting to contest the results.

    I can see a combo in some (many?) areas, of "The Brooks Brothers Riots" meets Klan Rallies and joins with John Bircher's, to foment vehement protests.

    And even if it's a convincing victory, watch out for trouble.

    Conservatives have felt that, with the economy in the sorry state it's still in - largely through their own efforts - that THIS election was a shoe-in to defeat that KenyanSocialistFascistCommuninistAtheistMuslim Usurper, and prove the superiority of Conservatism, and the rise of their Thousand Year Right Reich.

    They've set everything up:
    The complete obfuscation on the economy.
    The voter caging.
    The voter suppression.
    The "True the Vote" people ready to intimidate.
    We still have electronic voting machines.

    How could they possibly lose?
    Mit. That's how.

    Yes, Mitt will be blamed.
    But not before we see a redux of FL in 2000.
    Hey, it worked ONCE!

  • stormskies on September 19, 2012 10:10 AM:

    Yep, those 47% who would vote for Romney no matter what he says, does, or has done would also vote for BOZO THE CLOWN if there was an R next to his name.

    It is quite an indictment as to the nature of the people who will vote BOZO, er Romney, no matter what. They have constructed a fictional universe for themselves to live within, fiction that, to them, is actual reality.

    And, that, indeed, is the most scary thing of all in terms of the future of our country. Before FOX propaganda came along, and before the corporations like General Electric changed their corporate policies as to how the various news organizations they owned operated, these type of cretins and imbeciles were pretty isolated in their delirium affecting our country.

    But that all changed. And because of that change the corporate media has created a reality than enables the lies, deceptions, a fiction that emanates from the current crowd of Repiglicans to be megaphoned over and over without ever being challenged.

    And so these cretins and imbeciles, the 47% who would vote for BOZO THE CLOWN if he had a R next to him name, may in fact decide the fate of our nation.

    And that, indeed, is beyond fucking scary.

  • joanneinDenver on September 19, 2012 10:12 AM:

    The current polls has Obama ahead, nationwide, but all are within the margin of error. None, I think, have captured the response to Romney's 47% remark.

    In Colorado, we have conflicting results. Major newspaper poll shows Romney ahead by 3%. I am so worried about democratic complacency. I don't think the race is over, by far.

  • MuddyLee on September 19, 2012 10:13 AM:

    Regarding the 47 percent theme (or is it a "meme"?), I haven't seen anybody write anything about the Mitt-Boca fundraiser meeting was in Florida - a place that is probably pretty attractive to rich republicans because it has no state income tax. I know all the people there may not LIVE in Florida, but I suspect a lot of them have houses there so they can claim to be Florida residents to avoid state income taxes - the way Bush1 claimed to be a resident of Texas (and not Maine) when he was vice-prez and president. I would like to hear the republicans address this issue. Is is OK to be getting a free ride from a state government?

  • BillFromPA on September 19, 2012 10:17 AM:

    IMHO, the importance of this is that the 'real' agenda of the GOP is being forced into the light. They've been whispering to the base via meetings like this as well as using dog whistles for decades, telling a completely different story to the general public. Now with the teabaggers making Romney publicly dance to their tune and even their own invited (rich) donors punking them, they've been exposed.

  • Mitt's Magic Underpants on September 19, 2012 10:19 AM:

    Good post, Ed. And the media, being lazy, want a horserace. So they'll build Mitt back up as soon as he shuts up.

  • Blue Girl on September 19, 2012 10:27 AM:

    I see it a bit differently than Ed does. I think when Mitt loses -- and he will -- and the radical right-wing revolutionaries double down, it will hasten the GOPs destiny to become a rump-regional party that has no influence outside the deep south and a handful of more libertarian-leaning western states because they feel they have no where else to go. The true ugly nature has been forced into the light of day and the people see it for what it is. And for that I'm grateful.

  • c u n d gulag on September 19, 2012 10:29 AM:

    Mitt's Magic Underpants,
    Oh, it's not just laziness.

    It's profits.

    What's the statistic?
    Something like between 80-90% of our TV and radio stations, newspapers, magazines, and other media sources (except for the internet - or, at least, not yet), are owned by 6 different corporations/individuals, and there are still hundreds of millions, if not a billion or two, dollars, in political advertising out there.

    They want the race to remain close, so the ad bucks keep coming into their pockets until the last second.

    The reporters know that their corporate masters want the race to remain close - and who risks their jobs in times like these?

  • c u n d gulag on September 19, 2012 10:32 AM:

    Blue Girl,
    Hmm...
    Could be...

    From your mouth, to the FSM's ear.

  • Honeyboy Wilson on September 19, 2012 10:42 AM:

    I thought Bobo the Simple-Minded WAS on the GOP ticket.

  • Mimikatz on September 19, 2012 10:48 AM:

    I'm with Blue Girl. A rump party in every sense of the word.

    It is pretty funny that the Mitt people think Obama's "redistributionist" tape is a killer for them when (1) his policy and the policy of his class is to redistribute the remaining wealth of the middle class to themselves and (2) there are far more people who would be on the receiving end of Obama's redistribution, a fact that might just be beginning to seep in with the 47% comment.

    Mitt's is such a cartoonish view of the world one really has to ask what he has been doing for the last six tears. Not boning up on policy, that's clear. In retrospect in 2009 he should have gone on a "listening tour" like Hillary Clinton when she ran for Senate from NY in 2000. But when you are the smartest and richest guy in the room you don't have to listen to people, and that is Mitt's chief weakness.

  • Josef K on September 19, 2012 10:53 AM:

    I echo gulag's point at 10:08am. As contested and contentious as the 2000 recount was (never mind the still-percolating implications of fraud in Ohio in 2004), its reasonable to expect it'll be far worse in November.

    Not a scene I want my children to have to live through, but not one I can see any way to avoid.

  • Anonymous on September 19, 2012 10:54 AM:

    "So in my opinion, the Boca Moment is significant not because it signals the end of the Romney campaign (though if he loses, I’m sure some insta-book will say so), but as yet another indication of Mitt Romney’s sick (and I think that is the only word for it) relationship with his own party, wherein he has to go off in secret or use encoded messages to whisper the words his own voting “base” wants to hear...."

    Looks to me Ed doesn't think Romney believes the 47% nonsense. I think that's wrong. I think Romney does believe it.

    This is who these people are, and the country better wake up to it before it's too late.

  • Blue Girl on September 19, 2012 10:56 AM:

    I hadn't seen this yet...this is how an electoral bloodbath starts.

  • T2 on September 19, 2012 10:56 AM:

    its correct that the lines are hard in the 45-47% range, and hatred of Obama trumps the fact that the Republican nominee is not liked at all by his party. We'll have a 51-49 election or closer. I think the Electoral College will be a substantially larger ratio for Obama.
    @Blue Girl - the problem with the "libertarian-leaning western states" (which are heavy Mormon strongholds) is that they get to send the same amount of Senators to Congress as California or New York. So their influence on national politics is always there, rump-party or not.

  • TrustUSNotThem on September 19, 2012 10:57 AM:

    I believe this election will not be close. The polls all showing it to be a close race are that way intentionally for the $$$$ reasons stated by others in this post. This will be Obama by a landslide, and all the downticket races will be landslides as well. Honestly, have any of you talked to people on the street? They are all disgusted and ashamed of the Mittster and Ryan. Even the Republican'ts. Many of them will stay home.

  • TrustUSNotThem on September 19, 2012 10:58 AM:

    I believe this election will not be close. The polls all showing it to be a close race are that way intentionally for the $$$$ reasons stated by others in this post. This will be Obama by a landslide, and all the downticket races will be landslides as well. Honestly, have any of you talked to people on the street? They are all disgusted and ashamed of the Mittster and Ryan. Even the Republican'ts. Many of them will stay home.

  • Blue Girl on September 19, 2012 10:59 AM:

    There are two things that we have now that we didn't have in 2000 and 2004. The first one is a camera phone in everyone's pocket to capture video of shenanigans. The other is social media.

  • DisgustedWithItAll on September 19, 2012 11:00 AM:

    From Blue Girl:
    "The true ugly nature has been forced into the light of day and the people see it for what it is. And for that I'm grateful."

    I don't think the "people" do see it for what it is. There's 30+ years of anti-government programming that wasn't fought against by Democrats and it's taken a toll on the civic intelligence of an irresponsibly inattentive public. I think a good percentage of people believe it. And closer to the 47% of people who are voting for Romney than we would like to believe. I think a lot of these people are NOT just voting against Obama out of hate, but because they REALLY believe the bullshit.

    And I think that's even scarier than the hate theory.

  • Mitch on September 19, 2012 11:03 AM:

    @gulag,

    As always, pal, you hit it right on the head. The Media Monopolies are raking in some SERIOUS cash this election season. So their going to do everything that they can to fan the flames.

    @Blue Girl,

    "... it will hasten the GOPs destiny to become a rump-regional party ..."

    I could see that happening. It all depends on two (connected, but not entirely identical) things:

    1.) Will the hardline crazies continue to gain power in the GOP, or will the sane (but still plutocratic) Republican of yesteryear regain control of the party?

    2.) Will the tea-bagging zealots live up to the Limbaugh/Palin hype and split the GOP down the middle when Romney loses?

    We'll all find out soon enough.

    I definitely agree with you, Blue Girl, that Romney is going to lose. I don't even think it is going to be quite as tight as many others do. Instead of +1% for Obama, I am thinking it'll be closer to +4%. Romney just cannot help but shoot himself in the foot. Not to mention the electoral college predictions that I have seen are strongly in Obama's favor.

    Obama will win. And we can all guarantee it, if we get out and vote, and do whatever it takes to get our friends and families and fellow citizens to vote as well!

  • jonh on September 19, 2012 11:06 AM:

    In some people's minds, - or communal Hive-mind - Romney's mistake was getting caught. "The plan would have worked perfectly if it weren't for those meddling kids!" In the future, there will be some way to identify who made such a video so that they can be given the Bradley Manning treatment. (E.g., make a soundless and candidate-less video of every event so that the snitch can be identified from the camera angle. Perhaps this is already in the works for this instance.) And/or, the candidates will get traiining as method actors so that they stay in character even off the set.

  • TrustUsNotThem on September 19, 2012 12:04 PM:

    This in From Alan Abramowitz, so everyone just calm down and realize the close poll numbers are just a scam:

    "Obama leads Romney by 1 point among likely voters. But wait . . . Obama leads Romney by 15 points among all adults and by 10 points among registered voters. What is going on here? The answer is, they're using a ridiculously tight likely voter screen that counts only 63% of registered voters as likely voters. That might make sense for a midterm election but the normal turnout of registered voters in a presidential election is around 80-85%."

    .

  • Sean Scallon on September 19, 2012 12:07 PM:

    "An awful lot of observers, particularly among progressives, didn’t quite get this at the time. They look at Rick Perry and see a strutting Neanderthal who flirted with secession, not the bleeding-heart heretic Mitt Romney’s ads helped turn him into with heavy attacks on his immigration record. And they can’t imagine anyone seeing Rick Santorum as anything other than the kind of guy who would have been very happy serving in a Francisco Franco administration. Thanks to Romney’s Super-PAC, poor Rick wound up looking like just another Beltway RINO fraud, having voted for every “liberal” abomination of the Bush administration. The man who could not possibly run on his record won by spending a lot of money convincing the GOP “base” that no one else’s record was better. "

    We can call it Mitt's "Brothel Strategy". If everyone is a whore then the customers are going to want the prettiest one or the one with most (ahem) "assets".

    Another thing to point out is Mitt had the benefit of not being in government for the past seven years. He did not have to make a lot of unpopular votes or executive decisions people would remember. All he did was campaign and raise money. He had a lot of advantages his opponents did not

  • bigtuna on September 19, 2012 12:13 PM:

    Having never been to a fund raiser more intimate than a hot dog fest for a state rep candidate, I am not sure of how these things work. I tried - really, I tried, to watch the entire video. I made it 40% of the way through. The sick relationship Ed describes in in full view, and what is sickening is the tone, the nature of the questions, and the nature of the non answers. People paid a lot of money for this dinner, right? EVERY f+++ing answer is an ad hominem attack on Obama; there is never the acknowledgement that there were 43 presidents before him, including the complete failure of Bush II. The audience is told over and over about what is wrong; no solutions are given. We are told what a fiscal train wreck is on the way. But, it is not followed by " In my administration, we will ....." Maybe that is how these things work - all red meat for the audience.

    Even more concerning, in some ways, is the simple-minded, banal, and uninformed notions regarding foriegn policy. The simple minded "we support Israel Iran cannot have a nuke" meme is fine. But. What is your plan? Do you support a strike at Iran? If so, what are the consequences? What is your plan for dealing with the retaliation, and the destabilization of the region, oil markets, etc? He critizes Obama and negotations with Russia, and then blithly makes some statements that sound as if Russia will simply dance with us in a bed of flowers.... it will be just that easy.

    Permeating the whole thing is a non-disguised revulsion of "them". The solutions for the various issues he raised must lie out on the magic solution tree, and the brunt will be borne by "them", the victims, the lazy. Not "us".

    I disagree that this was Mitt acting the part. The world view of Willard Romney was there for all to see.

  • Eric k on September 19, 2012 12:47 PM:

    The biggest change is how polarized states have become, IIRC Mondale got 44%, but only won 1 state, Romney may get 46% but win basically all the same states McCain did

  • bdop4 on September 19, 2012 1:28 PM:

    The Boca Moment is signifant in that it provides a massive number of visually confirmable quotes with which the Democratic Party can bury Romney. But you have to pick up the hammer if you want to pound a nail.

    Dems need to attack the central premise behind Romney's comments: Almost half of Americans look to government first to provide for their basic needs. Most of the 47% are hardworking citizens who are barely earning above the subsistence level (unless you consider a refrigerator to be a luxury). The next largest segment are seniors who have given more to this country than anybody. After that, it's the disabled, veterans and kids.

    Look, there are going to be some on welfare who are chronically unemployed in good and bad economic climates and yes, measures should be taken to provide skills or childcare services so they can re-enter the workforce.

    But to say half of America is pre-disposed towards not working and receiving government assistance is just vile and disgusting.

  • meady on September 19, 2012 2:49 PM:

    I have a few friends that despise Obama (they have problems articulating why, but I digress) but are independant. I feel certain that they have come to despise Romney as well. Given the choice between the two, they will probably not vote. Now I don't pretend that these people represent anything, just my observations of them as in my mind they exemplify the thinking of many people across the country. But if people start voluntarily not voting for President, Obama wins handily. There are many more people out there voting for Obama than voting against Obama. Especially when the opponent is just as unpalatable. Romney has a lot of money voting for him, but not alot of bodies. At this point, I don't think he can be saved, but I do not underestimate the power of Americans to do something so obviously stupid and nonsensical. I was an adult during the Bush years...

  • TrustUSNotTHEM on September 19, 2012 2:58 PM:

    The presidential race is OVER. All that remains now is to increase our lead in the Senate and take over the House. From Pew:

    At this stage in the campaign, Barack Obama is in a strong position compared with past victorious presidential candidates. With an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, Obama holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including Obama four years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage.


    Not only does Obama enjoy a substantial lead in the horserace, he tops Romney on a number of key dimensions. His support is stronger than his rival’s, and is positive rather than negative. Mitt Romney’s backers are more ardent than they were pre-convention, but are still not as enthusiastic as Obama’s. Roughly half of Romney’s supporters say they are voting against Obama rather than for the Republican nominee. With the exception of Bill Clinton in 1992, candidates lacking mostly positive backing have lost in November.

    The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted September 12-16, 2012 among 3,019 adults including 2,424 registered voters, finds that Obama continues to be the more likable candidate by a substantial margin; his favorability rating has risen to 55% from 50% in late July, with 42% now expressing an unfavorable view of him.

    Romney’s favorability also has risen, from 37% in July to 45% currently. But more (50%) continue to view Romney unfavorably. No previous presidential candidate has been viewed more unfavorably than favorably at this point in a presidential campaign in Pew Research or Gallup September surveys going back to 1988.

    Romney has gained no ground on Obama in being seen as more credible or more empathetic, and Obama now leads Romney by nearly three-to-one (66% to 23%) as the candidate who connects well with ordinary Americans – an even wider margin than in June.

    With the exception of jobs and the deficit, on which voter opinion is about evenly divided, Obama leads Romney on most key issues, notably healthcare, Medicare, and abortion.

    And the survey, conducted amid an outbreak of violence in the Middle East and shortly after the killing of the U.S. ambassador to Libya, shows that Obama has a wide edge when it comes to foreign affairs and national security. Far more voters see Obama as a strong leader and as the candidate voters believe would use good judgment in a crisis. Voters also express more confidence in Obama than Romney to deal with foreign policy generally, as well as problems in the Middle East.

    Obama also has a number of other advantages over his challenger. As has been the case for much of the past year, the Democratic Party is better regarded than the GOP by a significant margin; currently, 53% of voters view the Democratic Party favorably while 46% have a favorable opinion of the GOP. Michelle Obama remains extremely popular – 66% have a favorable opinion of the first lady. About as many voters (70%) view Bill Clinton favorably. Joe Biden’s favorable ratings remain mixed, but that also is the case for Paul Ryan, Romney’s running mate. Both Biden and Ryan are among the least popular vice presidential candidates in recent history.

    The new survey, which began a week after the Democratic convention ended, finds that Democratic engagement in the 2012 election has spiked, and the engagement gap evident earlier in the campaign has largely disappeared. Democratic voters are now as likely as Republicans to say they have given quite a lot of thought to the election and are following campaign news as closely. Democratic voters also are as committed to voting, and as certain of their vote, as are their GOP counterparts.

    Consequently, Obama’s overall advantage – he leads 51% to 42% among registered voters – does not narrow significantly

  • Doug on September 19, 2012 3:16 PM:

    I, too, agree with those saying President Obama will win handily; the only question being by how much and how long his coat-tails are.
    Yes, there may very well be a 45% batch of voters who can be consistently expected to vote Republican. The question the "Bocaca" video raises, though, is how will that video affect those making up that 45%? The Republican "base" is usually stated to be around 30%, so one can presume they WILL vote for Romney. But what about that other 15% or so? What happens if a sizable proportion of them DOESN'T vote at all?
    After all, voter demoralization can have just as much an effect on voting numbers as voter suppression...

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