Political Animal


October 19, 2012 6:20 PM Day’s End and Weekend Watch

By Ed Kilgore

Why if we are getting so close to Election Day does it still seem so eternally far away? A question for psychologists, to be sure. Here’s what I have left from today’s sparse news gleanings:

* Charlie Cook joins the parade of observers talking about possible popular-vote, EV divergence.

* Matt Yglesias notes the preponderance of central plains states in those with unemployment below six percent.

* TAP’s Abby Rapoport reports on Georgia’s high-stakes referendum over state authorization of charter schools in jurisdictions that have rejected them.

* At Ten Miles Square, Michael O’Hare argues Google stock drop and demise of Newsweek mine canaries for market crisis over cost and price of content.

* At College Guide, Daniel Luzer suggests we don’t know yet if online degrees will ever be considered equivalent to traditional college degrees by employers.

And in non-political news:

* 49ers coach declined penalty that would have resulted in a safety and a final score that beat the spread—costing betters some serious money.

Time to deal with sleep deprivation issues. Ryan Cooper will be guest-blogging this weekend. And I’ll be back Monday for the penultimate full week before Election Day.


Ed Kilgore is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly. He is managing editor for The Democratic Strategist and a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Find him on Twitter: @ed_kilgore.


  • meander on October 19, 2012 6:54 PM:

    Pretty sloppy blogging by Yglesias. What is the population of those states relative to the number of jobless? The Census Bureau's 2011 estimates show that North Dakota has a population of about 683,000, Oklahoma has a population of about 3,700,000. Meanwhile, there are about 3 million unemployed people in California (assuming 8%), probably a million more in Illinois and New York. So what if a significant number of them moved to those low unemployment states? They wouldn't be low unemployment for long...

  • meander on October 20, 2012 10:41 AM:

    Also some sloppy commenting by meander (mea culpa!). You can't just take the populations from the census and multiply by the unemployment rate to get an estimate of the number of workers! You'd need to dig into the employment data and figure out how many people are interested in finding work, a number sure to be far lower than population * unemployment rate. That said, the states with low unemployment rates have tiny populations, and those robust employment environments couldn't support a flood of job-seekers from the rest of the nation (or even the three states I listed). Plus, do those states have the infrastructure to handle a massive influx? I've seen reporting on the mining/drilling/fracking boom towns that find workers living in motels, trailers or tents because housing doesn't exist or isn't being built -- in cases like Elko, Nevada, developers aren't willing to build because they aren't confident that the mining boom will last (see an excellent Planet Money podcast).

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