Political Animal


October 04, 2012 5:49 PM What To Expect From the September Jobs Report

By Ed Kilgore

So in a ritual that’s getting mighty old by now, not only the financial world, but the whole hep political world, will be hitting the refresh button on the Bureau of Labor Statistics site at precisely 8:30 AM EDT, for the penultimate Monthly Jobs Report of this election cycle. Reactions will hit Twitter right away, with more extensive reactions hitting the MSM at 9:00 or so.

Net job growth predictions are coming in at around 115,000, that tepid level that probably doesn’t effect the political dynamics much, with the official unemployment rate possibly going up slightly for technical reasons. Gallup, which has its own unemployment measurement that’s similar, but not identical, to that of the feds has actually shown unemployment dropping to 7.9% in September. If that were to be echoed in the BLS numbers, it would break a significant psychological barrier, if not meaning a lot in itself.

Ed Kilgore is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly. He is managing editor for The Democratic Strategist and a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Find him on Twitter: @ed_kilgore.


  • castanea on October 05, 2012 1:14 PM:

    My prediction is that the jobs report will show gains over 110,000, that the past two months will be revised upwards, and that unemployment will drop below 8 percent.

    I also predict that the timestamp for this comment will erroneously show that it was posted sometime on late Friday morning or early Friday afternoon.