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November 06, 2012 11:59 PM Aftermath

By Ed Kilgore

* Hope you pardon me for a pause after the Big Moment. As I said, it’s been a long cycle, and I called my parents to make sure they were awake and watching (they were, and were very happy).

* I gather Fox “personalities” are arguing over whether Ohio has actually been won by Obama. Now I’m hearing on NBC that the Romney campaign won’t concede Ohio because some Hamilton County boxes are still out. Good God. Chuck Todd calmly suggests there are a lot more Obama votes out in Cuyahoga County, not to mention Romney’s problems in the remaining battleground states.

* Getting back to the Senate for a moment: Shelly Berkley seems to have won the early vote comfortably, so the question is whether she can hold on as today’s votes come in. Jon Tester has a surprisingly large early lead, though I know nothing about voting patterns in Montana and nobody’s called it yet. Heitkamp has a tiny lead over Berg with 86% counted in ND. It looks like Jeff Flake’s winning in AZ. So the best the GOP can do tonight is to break even, and Democrats could wind up with as many as 56 seats.

* The more vulnerable members of the House GOP Krazy Kaucus are having an interesting evening. Allen West is up by 1400 votes with 96% in. Michele Bachmann’s ahead by 2300 votes with 45% in. And Steve King survived by a relatively large margin. I’ll have more about House races tomorrow; there are too many districts still out (including a bunch in California) to have a clear look beyond understanding Republicans will maintain control while Democrats make very modest gains.

I plan to do one more Nite Owl post for West Coasters a bit later. But the action has slowed down enough to bring the live-blog to an end. Lots of analysis tomorrow.

Ed Kilgore is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly. He is managing editor for The Democratic Strategist and a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Find him on Twitter: @ed_kilgore.

Comments

  • SBcardinal on November 07, 2012 12:18 AM:

    Geez Ed, did you have to harsh my mellow with those Bachmann numbers? I was floating on all the other news and forgot about crazy-eyes.

  • Jeffrey Charles on November 07, 2012 12:26 AM:

    Just curious... How is your post timestamped at 11:59PM and yet I live in the same time zone as you and it's only 9:24 at present? Are you going by *EST*?!? This is California, baby! Be proud of your time zone!

  • castanea on November 07, 2012 12:44 AM:

    One of the things that will stay with me the longest after this election is the complete, utter idiocy of the chattering classes in the American media.

    They got just about nothing right, and they sneered at Sam Wang and Nate Silver who used this complicated thing called "mathematics" to determine political probabilities.

    I'll also have nothing but disrespect for Brokaw, Rather, and other old-school journalists who should have known better, but who let their "guts" tell them what to think of the election.

    All these boobs deserve to have their feet held to the fire until they apologize for their baseless reportage and blatant dumbness.

  • exlibra on November 07, 2012 12:46 AM:

    Only 3, out of 11, House seats went to Dems in VA. Pity. But I'm going to concentrate on cherishing the Senate and the Presidential wins.

    Now... How do I decompress?

  • Zorro on November 07, 2012 1:08 AM:

    Colour me surprised on several counts. For one thing, I'd fully expected shenanigans with the black box voting machines present in so many locations. I speak with some degree of professional certainty when I say that many, if not most, of them are easily-hackable, and not at all secure. Beyond that, I'd expected that the GOP would insist on dragging this out in court for as long as possible. Indeed, the Romney camp's refusal to accept the Obama win in Ohio suggested that this is precisely what would happen. But one can hope that things will work out... although perhaps Paul Ryan will stay true to form and congratulate himself on his victory.

    -Z

  • Anonymous on November 07, 2012 1:17 AM:

    @castanea on November 07, 2012 12:44 AM:

    "One of the things that will stay with me the longest after this election is the complete, utter idiocy of the chattering classes in the American media.

    I'll also have nothing but disrespect for Brokaw, Rather, and other old-school journalists who should have known better, but who let their "guts" tell them what to think of the election."

    Indeed! I enjoy Morning Joe (I used to love Imus...) but I admit I get real tired of a bunch of pundit types sitting in a studio on New York or D.C. waxing poetic about what the 'Heartland' really thinks! Dan Rather's 'gut' comment was especially bad. Where was he going with that?

    However, if you are still feeling a little peeved, just think about Sheldon Adelson, the Koch brothers and all of the other rich dolts who poured hundreds of millions down the drain on the Romney campaign.

    Hahahaha!

  • guachi on November 07, 2012 1:28 AM:

    Thank you for your write up, Mr. Kilgore. And also for all the work you've done this election season.

    I guess we all should take a day off and enjoy something other than political minutia.

  • John Sully on November 07, 2012 1:33 AM:

    With 27% in Tester holds a 10 point lead. The counties to watch are Yellowstone, Gallatin, Lewis and Clark, Butte-Silverbow, Cascade and Missoula. These are where the bulk of the population in the state lives, and most of them are bluer than the very red rest of the state. Missoula and Gallatin both have fairly large universities and tend more liberal. Yellowstone can go either way and Butte has a long union history which lingers on in voting patterns.

    I think Tester has a pretty good chance. Gallatin will take a long time to report since we need to get new scanners.

  • Keith M Ellis on November 07, 2012 1:52 AM:

    Nate Silver has been my authority on polling but, even given that, I'd not expected Florida to go to Obama (and it still might not, though it probably will by a half-point, or so). I didn't expect Obama to win Virginia, either; but if he may have won Florida, then it's quite likely he would win Virginia.

    So Nate's model, it seems, predicted all the state outcomes. What I'm interested in now is his Senate numbers and in comparing the actual margins in the state Presidential votes with his. But it certainly looks like his model and methods have been strongly vindicated and his critics shown for the fools that, alas, they are.

    It'd be nice to think that they'd learn something from it. But I think that Podhoretz will be the exceptions (he tweeted that Silver was right and he was wrong) and the majority will, instead, claim that, somehow, their gut instincts about the election were correct. Most likely the whole "the hurricane changed everything" line will predominate.

  • N.Wells on November 07, 2012 2:13 AM:

    Well, that was a victory speech worth staying up for! The future with extremist Republicans in the House and in the electorate isn't rosy, but we dodged a disaster (Hurricane Mitt veered offshore at the last instance, but not without doing serious damage to some bank accounts in the Cayman Islands). We have a much, much, much better Senate than before, and gains by progressive women politicians were fantastic.

  • SalemProgressive on November 07, 2012 2:21 AM:

    What sticks in my craw is that well after ABC & CBS called 303 electoral votes for Obama with a popular vote lead and largely blue western states left to report the only thing anyone could talk about was how this was not a mandate. Chuck Todd, not the most liberal friendly face, was saying that Obama was likely to win 332 electoral votes. Yet all NBC could talk about was that Obama was eeking out a minor victory. After so recently seeing Jon Stewart interview Martha Raddatz and ask her why reporters continue to get away without asserting c

  • Anonymous on November 07, 2012 2:25 AM:

    conclusions based on facts, but rather just being careful not to exhibit a liberal bias while feeling free to make hard core conservative claims as fact...Can we have some elections and choose some competent journalists to report the news?

  • SalemProgressive on November 07, 2012 2:27 AM:

    conclusions based on facts, but rather just being careful not to exhibit a liberal bias while feeling free to make hard core conservative claims as fact...Can we have some elections and choose some competent journalists to report the news?

    by the way your recaptcha is awful. hard to read and rejects submissions for no reason.

  • Footsore on November 07, 2012 2:37 AM:

    Before she writes her next piece, I hope Ms. Noonan will make good use of a tall, iced glass of vinegar and water.

  • Ashbee on November 07, 2012 2:39 AM:

    I sat and watched Alex Haley's Roots all day, the entire thing, that same tv show they unbelievably made us all watch as kids in Iowa in 4th grade. Not only was it an exercise in patience, it also jogged that sense of historical context that was missing for me this election.

    Ed you're great about bringing it to the people but I think more historical injection not only "makes it plain", but is the ultimately brings the conversation back to planet earth. Definitely something missing with the folks from the southland.

  • castanea on November 07, 2012 7:34 AM:

    "...how this was not a mandate..."

    What we need to guard against is the rightwing and the media claiming that this win proved nothing, and that Romney was a weak opponent, and that Obama barely won re-election [by a margin that was electorally and possibly popular vote-wise greater than W's second term], etc.

    Republicans and the media will now begin to make it seem that Obama's victory actually is a defeat. Noonan and Morris and all the other hacks will begin this meme soon enough.

    We must ensure they all twist in the wind on this.

  • anongal on November 07, 2012 4:08 PM:

    This win was quite decisive and is a profound truth that a progressive trend is happening in this country, we are in this together, we will provide for the common good-- government is important, animosity is rejected. And you cannot discount people in America who are not white males!

  • civarifsciz on December 06, 2012 5:18 AM:

    This really answered my predicament, thank you!


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