Political Animal


November 06, 2012 9:31 PM Election Results Live-Blog VI: Last Big Wave of Poll Closings

By Ed Kilgore

* Big news: Massachusetts Senate called for Elizabeth Warren, Indiana Senate race called for Joe Donnelly. Republicans have probably lost the Senate.

* Wolf really aiming at low-information voters: “Look at this—Texas—all 38 votes for Mitt Romney.”

* Michigan called immediately for Obama. Remember when that was the state that would “expand the battleground?” But no calls in MN, WI, AZ, NM and CO. But initial exits have Obama up 3 in WI, 4 in MN, 9 in NM; Romney up 5 in AZ. Colorado dead even in exits.

* House called for GOP. Zero surprise.

* Assuming Mitt loses in PA, OH and WI, is there still a path to 270? Yeah, just barely: he’d have to win NC, VA, FL, IA , NH, CO and NV.

* Wolf freaks out as Mitt pulls slightly ahead in Florida with 76% in. We’ll have to wait for someone else to explain where the vote is still out.

* Bob Casey projected Senate winner in Pennsylvania: yet another state where GOPers were claiming a “wave” would get them a seat.

* Markos Moulitsas notes that Romney’s Super-PAC spent $4.5 million in Michigan over the last three weeks.

* John King finally tells us that 55% of the vote in Broward County, and 85% of the vote in Miami-Dade, are still out. So the Romney Surge in Florida is very tentative.

* Looking back at Virginia, Romney currently leads Obama by four points with two percent going to minor-party candidates. Allen leads Kaine by just two in the Senate race.

* Wow. In some locations in Virginia, voting hours extended until 11:00 PM. That one (and the Senate race) could go really late, or until tomorrow.

* Wolf freaks out again when raw vote shows Mitt up in Florida by 600 votes. “Could this be 2000 again?” No, Wolf.

Ed Kilgore is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly. He is managing editor for The Democratic Strategist and a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Find him on Twitter: @ed_kilgore.


  • Speed on November 06, 2012 9:36 PM:

    People like Wolf are the reason I don't watch TV coverage of the elections anymore. Thanks for the blogging, Ed.

  • Joe Friday on November 06, 2012 9:38 PM:

    People still waiting in line to vote in Florida. Officials say people waiting in line in Miami-Dade may not vote for TWO MORE HOURS !

  • DenguyFL on November 06, 2012 9:43 PM:

    Miami-Dade still under 50% reporting. M-D is always slow and consistently in the D column by healthy margins.

  • Joe Friday on November 06, 2012 9:45 PM:

    NBC calls it for Elizabeth Warren and Joe Donnelly.

  • AndThenThere'sThat on November 06, 2012 9:46 PM:

    Ditto what Speed said. I'd have blown a gasket already watching the horse race pundits do their snake dance.

    Great blogging, Ed.

  • Keith M Ellis on November 06, 2012 9:54 PM:

    I didn't think that Obama would get Florida or Virginia (but would get WI, OH, IA, CO, and NV) and that if he were to get one of them, Virginia is the most likely. I just didn't expect Romney to lose Florida — I expected him to win Florida by about one point.

    That Obama might win Florida is a very strong indication to me that he will win the election. I have a hard time imagining a Florida win without also getting Viginia; and this is much, much more true regarding Wisconsin and Iowa and, of course, Ohio. So I personally don't see any EC path for Romney that doesn't include Florida.

    All that is to say, I think that Florida will be close enough to trigger recounts and such but it won't matter in the larger sense because the election won't hinge upon it.

    Finally, I think the down-ballot results we're seeing pretty much make it unambiguous that Obama is going to win.

  • exlibra on November 06, 2012 10:00 PM:

    Well, my little town -- 4135 registered voters -- in south western Virginia did itself proud. First, the turnout was *incredible*; it was close to 67% (counting the absentee votes, of which there weren't all that many, since we can only vote absentee "for a good reason"). None of us had ever seen the lines that long; I worked (pollbook) the second shift, starting at 1:PM, and didn't even get to vote myself till 6:30, when things slowed down a lot. But there was no line at 7 (the last few people came in about five minutes to), so,shortly after 8PM we were all done. Obama won (1484/1146), Kaine won (1571/1102), even our congressional Dem candidate won (probably the only precinct in the whole district where he did so ). I could only wish the rest of Virginia was as enlightened as we are! Unfortunately, what I've seen of the results so far, it doesn't look so good.

  • Tramey on November 06, 2012 10:15 PM:

    Ed, Try watching another station... maybe MSNBC. Rachel's doing a bang-up job.

  • Just Guessing on November 06, 2012 10:18 PM:

    Can't usually watch Fox but tonight watching them squirm and start the "why we lost" spin is just too good to miss.

    And Wolf - what a dumb ass.

  • Kathryn on November 06, 2012 10:22 PM:

    @exlibra.....hang in there, nervous too but in 2008 and in Jim Webb senate race in 2006 looked bad well into the night but ended well. The high population northern part of state no doubt takes longer to count. I will tell you that we worked our butts off in Fairfax County, no stone was left unturned.

  • exlibra on November 06, 2012 11:26 PM:

    Kathryn, we did too (work our buts off) an'all. Can't see where we could have done more. But it's hard not keep biting ones nails to the quick; this one is far more vicious than either '06 or '08. When I came in, I was told that one of the women on the morning shift -- a Repub, but I've worked with her before, and thought her stupid but honest -- was demanding all sorts of -- unnecessary and unneeded -- IDs from the HAVA voters. According to the Dem observer, she was also chatting incessantly with the Repub observer, making distinctions between the "good" and the "bad" voters Finally, someone called the registrar, the registrar straightened her out in no uncertain terms, and the stupid bint was moved off the pollbook to another position (handing out "I voted" stickers). So she was foiled. Her husband, who was supposed to have been on the pollbok in the afternoon, wasn't even allowed to get on. He was put on directing traffic, where he'd chat to acquaintances, holding the traffic up. Eventually, he, too, was moved to another position.

    But, if it was like that in our little town (where everyone knows everyone else *and* their business), I can only imagine the "numbers" SOBs like them were trying to pull in NoVA and in Hampton Roads...

    On the positive side, my step-granddaughter who just started at VA Tech, and whom I pushed into registering in VA (CT did just fine without her, thank you), said she has voted (it was "or else", from me) and everything went very smoothly, no problems. Knocking on wood (aka my own skull)...