Political Animal


November 06, 2012 9:49 PM Election Results Live-Blog VII: Tension City

By Ed Kilgore

* Lotta confusing micro-analysis on the tube right now, though CNN (other than Blitzer) is doing a decent job of contextualizing county results in battleground states. Colorado really does look dead even. A good bit of the vote from Broward and Miami-Dade has come in, but Florida’s still dead even, presumably because votes from SW Florida and the Panhandle are offsetting those from the big Dem counties down south. Very slow count up in NH, for reasons no one is explaining.

* Wow! NBC calls calls Warren the winner in Massachusetts and Donnelly the winner in Indiana. What a gut-punch for Republicans. On top of everything else, Fox is calling the Wisconsin Senate race for Tammy Baldwin. We can now start seriously considering possibility of Democratic gains in the Senate.

* And double-wow: NBC calls PA and WI for Obama! CNN calls PA but not WI.

* So assuming NBC’s not premature with WI, Romney now has to win Ohio or run the table of ALL the remaining battleground states.

I’ll let you chew on that big news for a few minutes.

Ed Kilgore is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly. He is managing editor for The Democratic Strategist and a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Find him on Twitter: @ed_kilgore.


  • Marko on November 06, 2012 9:58 PM:

    And the Mittster's not looking good in Ohio. TFB

  • Nahidul Islam on November 06, 2012 10:06 PM:

    Just released NYU study of President Obama and Mitt Romney's body language shows on a word by word basis what each candidate emphasizes. http://gesturecloud.org

  • Keith M Ellis on November 06, 2012 10:08 PM:

    I find it extremely unlikely that Obama could win or be within a half-point in Florida or Virginia while losing either Colorado or Nevada. If Obama is equaling or exceeding his 2008 results in Florida with hispanics, then that will be true in both Colorado and Nevada.

    Similarly, I can't see Romney winning Iowa if he loses Wisconsin. And New Hampshire's been called for Obama by some networks. So there's little chance of a path for a Romney victory without Ohio, in my opinion. And I can't imagine Obama losing Ohio, giving that he's performing slightly better than expected (apparently) in Florida.

    As far as the Senate is concerned, where do you see the Democrats actually picking up a seat, or two, Ed? These results are looking to me to indicate an unchanged ratio of 52-47. I didn't expect Baldwin to win (and I'm unclear on who has or has not called that race in her favor), but the surprise is that the GOP is not picking up seats like everyone expected, not even one, and not so much a real possibility that the Dems will improve on the status quo.

  • Joe Friday on November 06, 2012 10:09 PM:

    The bulk of the yet to be tabulated vote in Florida is from Miami-Dade and Broward, and Obama is already ahead in the vote totals.

  • Celui on November 06, 2012 10:15 PM:

    Oh, Yeah! Claire McCaskill in MO!!! Baldwin!!! Brown!!! OK, the exclamation point key is too hot to continue. C'mon Florida.

  • Al on November 06, 2012 10:17 PM:

    You liberals are all like Cleopatra Queen of Denial. BHO is going down! Our long national nightmare of shame is ending!

  • AgentX on November 06, 2012 10:45 PM:

    Looks like things are going well for Obama.
    I'm tuning in on BBC radio. CNN and the other networks streams are laggy as hell. Damn teabaggers and their 56K modem connections!