Political Animal


November 06, 2012 10:29 PM Election Results Live-Blog VIII: Breakthrough

By Ed Kilgore

* Polls about to close in IA and NV, but NBC has now called NH for Obama. That means unless Mitt wins OH, even sweeping ALL the remaining battleground states (FL, VA, CO, IA, NV) might not do it, depending on what happens with the crazy split EVs in Nebraska and Maine. This doesn’t quite seem to have sunk in to the talking-heads, at least on CNN.

* No calls by CNN in IA and NV, but initial exits show Obama up 6 points in both. No calls by NBC, either. CNN finally calls NH.

* Mitt up about 950,000 votes in the national popular vote. Remember that California’s still out.

* CNN projects Claire McCaskill the winner in Missouri, making it mathematically impossible for GOPers to win the Senate. This is a very big deal, and would have surprised most people a year ago.

* FWIW, John King (and now James Carville) staring at the map of Florida, and all but predicting Obama will win the state because so many votes still out in South Florida.

* Finally getting around to looking at the national exit polls (which weren’t put up as early as usual), and the numbers are about what you’d expect in a close election won by Obama. He got 39% of the white vote (down from 43% in 2008), which was 73% of the electorate (down from 74% in 2008). The under-30 vote, which was expected to be a significantly smaller part of the electorate, came in at 18% (slightly down from 19% in 2008), and Obama won 60% (down from 66% in 2008). Latinos increased slightly from 9% of the electorate to 10%, and Obama boosted his percentage among them from 67% to 69%. All in all, the electorate was very similar to what is was in 2008, and the predictable drop in Obama’s vote, concentrated among white votes, wasn’t enough to cause a loss.

Ed Kilgore is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly. He is managing editor for The Democratic Strategist and a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Find him on Twitter: @ed_kilgore.


  • Rabbler on November 06, 2012 10:42 PM:

    Could it be that the media's desire to make a horse race of it ensured that it would not be close? Must be a liberal conspiracy!

  • kennethdfranks.blogspot.com on November 06, 2012 10:50 PM:

    It is going to be a good night for the Democratic Party.

  • Rick B on November 06, 2012 10:54 PM:

    OK. This looks to me like Obama wins this one. I'm betting that what has happened is that the Citizen's United money allowed the Republicans to get a lot of the popular vote by advertising in places that don't matter that much, while Obama has done GOTV in the swing states which really do matter. Advertisements do not get out the vote. They just switch the uninformed voters. Someone - a friend or even just a live person - actually talking to the voters is a lot more persuasive.

    If I am correct, then the Republicans cannot use Citizen's United money to (quite) match the Democratic GOTV in key states. This will be a national effect, though. The down-ballot races are going to be strongly affected by CU money.

  • Juno on November 06, 2012 11:11 PM:

    CO just approved decriminalization of MJ.

  • exlibra on November 06, 2012 11:58 PM:

    Rick B, @10:54. We always knew we could never outraise them; our only route was to outwork them. And we did. The *Little* Engine That Could...

    BTW. The last report on VA (my own state) that I had was that Kaine won as did Obama (though by a smaller margin). Let's hope those results hold.

    despite the "strong Sttench", too.