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November 03, 2012 10:25 PM Just when you thought it was safe to breathe a sigh of relief …

By Kathleen Geier

I’m feeling reasonably sanguine about Obama’s chances of winning, but in the last couple of hours I’ve heard a few things that are making me slightly nervous. I’m not panicking, but let’s just say I’m incrementally more … uncomfortable than I was earlier in the day.

— The first item is the least consequential. At a rally in Ohio on Friday, Obama, paraphrasing the well-known aphorism “Living well is the best revenge,” told a crowd of supporters that “Voting is the best revenge.” It’s a completely benign and unexceptional comment, except, of course, to wingnuts, who predictably are ginning up a full-blown hissy fit over it. Byron York is describing Obama’s remark as “ugly and small-minded” — get out the smelling salts! Powerline’s John Hinderaker writes that it’s a “reminder of Obama’s dark side” (Is HInderaker’s racist pun intentional here? You be the judge!). And the Romney campaign was quick to pounce on the remarks, creating a video called “Revenge or Love of Country,” which implies that the president’s comments were somehow anti-American and unpatriotic.

I seriously doubt that Obama’s harmless comments will cost him any votes, except perhaps from people who were already looking for any excuse not to vote for him anyway. Still, the media has been known to mindlessly chase a silly story like this like my dog Hildy chases squirrels, and no candidate likes any distractions, even manufactured ones, from his preferred message, especially in the crucial last hours of the campaign.

— The second item I saw is actually much more worrying. ThinkProgress is reporting that Ohio’s Republican Secretary of State, Jon Husted, has issued a directive that stops just short of giving election officials full permission to invalidate provisional ballots for any arbitrary reason that pops into their heads:

The directive, issued Friday, lays out the requirements for submitting a provisional ballot. The directive includes a form which puts the burden on the voter to correctly record the form of ID provided to election officials. Husted also instructed election officials that if the form is not filled out correctly by a voter, the ballot should not be counted.

These shenanigans are straight out of the Republican Voter Suppression 101 playbook. Husted’s directive directly contradicts a court decision issued last week concerning Ohio’s provisional ballots, and it also seems to contradict both the letter and the spirit of the law. ThinkProgress rightly describes this development as an “11th-hour move” that “could swing the entire election.” Ohio, of course, is the swingiest of swing states, and it’s widely thought that the outcome there could determine the results of the election. Voting rights advocates have filed a lawsuit to reverse Husted’s directive; let’s hope the courts invalidate it in time for before Election Day.

— Finally, there’s this: I am a New Jersey native and my entire family of origin — three brothers, sister, parents — still lives in the state, in the northern and north-central suburbs. Earlier today I had a long discussion with one of my brothers about how things are going there, post-Sandy. He said that things are still fairly chaotic. My family is fine, thank God, but various members, such as my parents, are still without power. There are gas lines that last for hours, Governor Christie has just implemented odd/even gas days (now there’s a blast from the past!). My brother said that even if you do get gas, there aren’t many places you can go — many roads are blocked off and access is restricted at a lot of places. He teaches in the public schools, which were closed all this week but are scheduled to re-open on Monday.

All of this has me alarmed — does this sound like a state that will be ready to hold an election on Tuesday? And how is it possible that conditions like these could fail to depress turnout? New Jersey, like the two other states that have been most affected by Sandy (Connecticut and New York), is a solid blue state, and I worry that ballot access problems and low turnout in these places could cut into Obama’s popular vote and weaken his mandate, to the extent that he has one. This is a story that bears keeping an eye on.

Kathleen Geier is a writer and public policy researcher who lives in Chicago. She blogs at Inequality Matters. Find her on Twitter: @Kathy_Gee

Comments

  • enplaned on November 03, 2012 11:36 PM:

    The thing that makes me the most nervous is bed-wetters like you. Hold it together, don't freak out, and resist the urge to express your fears in unhelpful ways like this.

  • Col Bat Guano on November 04, 2012 12:10 AM:

    The idea that the "revenge" comment is going to sway a significant number of voters is crazy. There isn't enough time for it even to spread across Ohio.

  • SciMom on November 04, 2012 12:15 AM:

    @enplaned - As a resident of Ohio, I think Kathleen's worries are justified. Let this be a reminder that regardless of the polls, we can't take this for granted. Don't just vote - help with GOTV - and if you're in a blue state, consider making some phone calls into swing states. With luck, on Wednesday we'll all be able to look back on this and laugh, but we need to make our own luck!

  • Rip on November 04, 2012 12:17 AM:

    1. Making a big deal of the revenge comment looks desperate. The broader media isn't going to run with this and Romney is just throwing everything at wall at this point.

    2. As of Friday there were 200,000 absentee ballots unreturned in Ohio, and they can still be post-marked tomorrow or dropped off in person on election day. The maximum number of provisional ballots ( used instead of an absentee by a voter who had requested one) will be less than this, most of which will be filled out correctly. I don't imagine this would effect more than a few thousand ballots at worst, though there is an unfortunate history of throwing out provisional ballots in Ohio for arbitrary reasons that seem to disproportionately effect urban counties, and this extra hurdle is just the latest example. Hopefully the race will not be so close as for this to matter.

    3. While there is a good chance New Jersey's vote will be depressed, it will likely be so for both candidates, and Obama will still win the state. It doesn't matter what Obama wins by in the popular vote, the Republicans will insist he doesn't have a mandate as his margin will almost certainly be smaller than in 2008.

    4. Shit happens; weather keeps people home, absentee ballots are unsigned, voters are sent to the wrong booths, votes are uncounted, lines are too long, some dumb ad sways someone at the last minute. We can work to minimize it, but it will still happen. Roll with it.

  • Concerned on November 04, 2012 12:22 AM:

    Thank you for your concern.

  • 14All on November 04, 2012 12:22 AM:

    The irony, of course, is that he was urging the crowd not to boo his opponent. I guess he should have let them boo. God knows they behaved like the Queen of England compared to how the crowd at the Republican primaries acted.

  • enplaned on November 04, 2012 12:45 AM:

    @SciMom -- see, that's a useful comment on your part. Believe me, I'm not taking anything for granted. But I've given up to the legal limit and unfortunately my time is spoken for by my job.

    Wringing ones hands about things you then say won't matter (i.e. the revenge comment) and then not prescribing any action is simply useless.

    Obama suffered after the first debate not just because of his listless performance, but because of the Force 9 freakout on the part of bedwetters. If Geier can't handle it, she should take to her bed and suck her thumb.

    O NOES WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE! WOE IS ME...

  • Quaker in a Basement on November 04, 2012 12:46 AM:

    O!
    M!
    G! Ya'll!
    A black man said the word revenge? Freak out, everybody!

  • Jeff Condie on November 04, 2012 12:54 AM:

    You shouldn't be worried...Like Col Bat said the MSM will never report on anything negative against Obama that might hurt his chances at re-elect..ex..Benghazi! God, they are in the tank for this guy!! Ask yourself, what if Romney would of said Obama's exact same words? They would of hung from his huge "brass balls" or however Biden refers to them
    these days.

  • exlibra on November 04, 2012 1:14 AM:

    vis voting in New Jersey, there's this:
    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/28/nyregion/hurricane-sandy.html#sha=6eb761e1a
    scroll down to 9:53 PM

    Yes, Husted's bobbing and weaving *is* worrisome, but, hopefully the courts will put paid to this new trick of his in time (on Monday), like they have done with all the rest. And, once all this is over, I'd like to see Husted busted, and his sorry tail in jail.

  • Bo on November 04, 2012 1:46 AM:

    Hustad = Katherine Harris . . . without the fake breasts and lousy face-lift.

  • Equal Opportunity Cynic on November 04, 2012 2:00 AM:

    N Wells is correct. No one on the Republican side gives a diddly damn about a mandate, and fretting over it is silly. Good grief, if anyone did want to cry about it, the rebuttal would be obvious: Obama would have had more votes if NY and NJ hadn't gotten hit. Duh.

    (As though any mandate would keep Republicans from trying to sink the ship to drown the captain. Hilarious.)

    The Husted stuff, OTOH, is pretty scary. What disgusts me is that we could bounce these clowns out of office if we could get Democrats to recognize that there's more than one important election per four years.

  • N.Wells on November 04, 2012 2:42 AM:

    Worrying about a reduction in Obama's mandate is pointless, as the Republicans aren't going to accept his legitimacy no matter what. Even if Obama won by the largest margin in 40 years, say 365 electoral college votes to 173, with a popular vote margin as high as 52.9% to 45.7% to pick some numbers not at random, do you think Republicans would accept a Democratic win as legitimate? We already know that they won't, because they didn't when that happened in 2008. Such an outcome simply isn't within their view of an acceptable reality. The appropriate response to this (assuming that Obama wins, Dems keep the Senate, and the R's don't resort to impeachment or violence) is simply a) enjoy watching Republican heads explode as they fail to come to grips with Obama winning re-election, b) stiffen Reid's spine to change Senate rules, and c) work toward clearing out the bulk of Republican House vermin in 2014.

    Husted is an excrescence. With Republicans in lock-step with extremism, dishonesty, and evil policies, we simply cannot afford to give them power any more. As someone recently wisely noted, voting is the best revenge for their execrable record, so everyone get out and vote against them.

  • cwolf on November 04, 2012 2:45 AM:

    The Court should have jailed Husted for Contempt & just held him, bound & gagged, till next week.

  • c u n d gulag on November 04, 2012 6:38 AM:

    America is LONG OVERDUE to have a VOTING RIGHTS ACT, where voting is uniform across this once great nation.

    Right now, local tinpot DICKtator's, like this Fascist Husted clown, have inordinate sway in elections.

    Why can't a judge throw Husted's ass in jail until Wednesday, so he can't make up any more stupid rules on the fly?

    If he could, Husted would have people fill out provisional ballot's with their non-dominant hand, and if it can't be read, or the vote goes for the Presidential candidate whose last name begins and ends with a vowel, have that thrown out.

    And because he doesn't like the color, any votes for people who ARE brown, or are named Brown, should also be thrown out.

    "We the people," need our 50 states to follow ONE set of rules for registratering and voting.

    The rest of the world is feckin' laughing at us!

  • c u n d gulag on November 04, 2012 6:40 AM:

    OY!
    "REGISTERING," not whatever the feckin' workd is that I butchered, above.

    Y kent oui haz "EDIT"?

  • MuddyLee on November 04, 2012 8:11 AM:

    SC republicans (think Jim DeMint) have already started talking about how an Obama victory will "prove" that they should have nominated a "real conservative" instead of Romney. Check out The State newspaper in Columbia SC - thestate.com - of course one of the political "scientists" quoted (who all seem to be working for the GOP - welcome to South Carolina) did say that a Newt campaign would have been a "debacle". The main point of the article is if Romney loses, republicans will be "forced" to turn to Jim DeMint and people like him (aka REAL conservatives). Toward the end of the article, a few crumbs were thrown toward reality - they quote Bob Inglis who lost in the primary to a tea party guy and who now runs an organization trying to educate conservatives about climate change. Inglis might have been the only elected republican from SC who had a brain.

  • square1 on November 04, 2012 8:25 AM:

    The only story worth mentioning is in Ohio. I'm all out of sympathy for Democrats. Every 4 years the Republicans pull their shenanigans and every 4 years the Democrats cry like babies when they don't see it coming. ("Nobody could have foreseen a GOP Secretary of State in Ohio depressing Democratic votes!")

    My fervent hope is that Obama loses the state for being too stupid to see this coming.

  • R on November 04, 2012 8:27 AM:

    Kathleen, it's always nice to have you do the weekend gig. Too bad some commenters can't seem to disagree with you without resorting to name-calling (all in the service of a unified front? huh?). Let's save the ad hominem attacks for the Republicans. For more of a challenge, make up new phrases, in the style of Charlie Pierce; e.g., "Paul Ryan, the zombie-eyed granny-starver from Wisconsin."

  • BillFromPA on November 04, 2012 8:41 AM:

    I wouldn't expect the mouth breathers to be familiar with the quote, 'Living well is the best revenge.' , no doubt the inspiration for Obama's remark, but I hope the rest of America hasn't become so dumbed down that this went over their heads too. I agree with a previous poster that this is a clutching at straws act of desperation of a sinking campaign.

  • Ron Byers on November 04, 2012 8:46 AM:

    Square 1, what you are expressing is my overwelming concern that on November 7 Democrats nationally will conclude there is nothing to do and go on vacation until about 2015. The Republicans wont. Why should Democrats. The 2014 midterm election starts on November 7 if it hasn't started already.

    The first thing we should do is identify and train communty organizers and potential candidates down to and including the dog catcher level in all 50 states. At the same time we need re-examine our messaging to seniors. We are losing entirely too many to Rush Limbaugh and Fox News.

    There are other things to talk about after November 6. GOTV

  • PTate in MN on November 04, 2012 8:57 AM:

    All reasons to worry.

    I won't assume an Obama victory until Wednesday when Romney concedes. We already have evidence from three elections--2000, 2004, & 2008--of polling place shenanigans in Ohio and Florida that always helped the Red guy. There were two elections in Wisconsin this year where mysterious ballots were discovered at the nth hour by the same Waukesha County clerk, Kathy Nickolaus. We've already had several incidents this year of Republican operatives messing with ballots.

    So for me, Nov 7 is going to be an ugly day. If Obama wins, Republicans will freak out (see Quaker in a basement, above). They refused to accept the will of the majority in 2008; they won't accept an Obama win this year.

    And if Romney wins, what is our plan B? Republicans will bully. They'll be doing their crazy conservative triumphalist dance, Nyah-nyah-nyah! They'll scoff at the pre-election state polls that point to Obama is the probable winner. They'll ridicule Nate Silver. They'll claim Romney had the momentum but polls didn't capture it and the liberal media didn't report it; they'll claim mysterious surges in Republican turnout.

    Is there any chance that Eric Holder's Justice department will quickly investigate? Will liberals march in the streets?

    ...Somehow, captcha seems relevant: deceived faunact.

  • square1 on November 04, 2012 9:14 AM:

    @c u n d gulag:

    Yes, we should have a new Voting Rights Act. That is 1 of probably 20 major reforms that we need to the functioning of our political system.

    Unfortunately, I can't think of a single "big idea" that the Democratic Party has pushed to improve our political system for almost 50 years now. They can't even abolish the filibuster!

    For example, if Democratic politicians took seriously their roles as stewards of our political apparatus, the following is a list of reforms that Democrats might have supported:

    1. Electronic paper trail
    2. Require presidential electors to be faithful
    3. Some form of instant runoff voting
    4. Abolition of the Senate
    5. Abolition of the filibuster
    6. Inauguration of President (and commencing new Congress) within 30 days of election.
    7. Make election day a national holiday
    8. Improve rules of succession in event both President and VP are incapacitated.
    9. Abolish Presidential pardon.
    10. No pardons for elected officials, their staffs, or anyone convicted of a crime arising out of performing work for the federal government.
    11. Create a 30-day window for voting. Allow votes to be changed up to last day of voting.
    12. Publicly financed campaigns.
    13. If state election results cannot be certified - or there is a natural or man-made disaster on election day, permit a re-vote or change of election day.
    14. Create "no-confidence" vote alternative to impeachment.
    15. Nationalize the central bank.
    16. Expressly authorize the printing of money to pay debts in absence of debt-issuing authority by Congress.

    I don't support all the above reforms. Most would be difficult or require a Const. Amendment. Some are mutually exclusive. Whatever. The point isn't that the Democrats should support all the above as additions to the party platform. The point is that there has been virtually no serious discussion within the Dem Party in 50 years to improve the structure of our political system.

    Almost nothing that I listed above directly favors either the Dems or the GOP, so it is impossible to attribute the lack of movement on reform to traditional partisan factors.

  • majun on November 04, 2012 9:20 AM:

    I would advise those who are letting these stories to get to them to take a chill pill. The revenge line is only going to get traction in the right wing noise machine, where the only people who hear it are going to be the people who would never vote for Obama anyway.

    Ohio is disturbing, but nothing the courts can't handle. Scalia and Thomas might buy into arguments that legal formalism should trump voting rights (it is, after all, a right that is left for the States to decide, with some restrictions found in the amendments to the Constitution), but I don't think Kennedy or Roberts are that far gone (and Kennedy already has his vote in Bush v Gore to account for). Alito is a toss-up. In the end States will be forced to take a very expansive view of their provisional ballots.

    There is no doubt that Sandy is going to depress voter turnout in NY and NJ, but both states are solidly blue enough so that, it shouldn't affect the outcome of the election. And no amount of popular vote won by Obama will ever be considered to be a mandate by the Republican Party. They considered his election illegitimate in 2008 and they will consider his re-election in 2012 to be equally so, whether or not he wins the popular vote, and there isn't a margin of victory that will change that. So, why worry about it.

    Obama will take the EV with something north of 300 and probably win the popular vote too, but not by anything as substantial as his EV totals will suggest. But that is a function of the Electoral College and the deep geographical divide of this country. Obama is going to lose by substantial margins in many deep red states and his winning margins in the blue states aren't going to quite compensate for that. That is just a fact.

  • AF on November 04, 2012 9:34 AM:

    Relax. The "revenge" thing is ridiculous and just makes Romney look small; the Ohio thing is crap but the rich, street-fighting Obama campaign and its Ohio allies are not going to let it affect the election; and I don't even understand the concern about New Jersey.

  • square1 on November 04, 2012 9:34 AM:

    The first thing we should do is identify and train communty organizers

    You mean like ACORN, which the Dems helped defund and destroy? Ooops!

    and potential candidates down to and including the dog catcher level in all 50 states.

    Well, Dems could at least start by targeting, I don't know, the offices of Sectetaries of State in battleground states. But if you think that Dem political leaders give a crap about building the party apparatus, you are on crack. 50 state strategy is for DFHs like Howrd Dean.

  • labradog on November 04, 2012 9:50 AM:

    Revenge?
    Hell, voting is the best way to slit the throat of the GOP.

  • biggerbox on November 04, 2012 10:00 AM:

    The right-wing never accepted Obama's first term as legitimate, why should we expect they will accept a second one? Instead of a birth certificate, they'll point to popular vote totals, but those are just excuses to complain.

    If anyone cares to take them on, practice the following response "As Justice Scalia once said, "Get over it.""

    My biggest worry is that the various Sec.'s of State and ballot shenanigans will keep the thing tied up in court for months, and when the courts decide against the GOP, it will further blacken the right-wing's opinion of the judicial system, which is only legitimate in their eyes when it agrees with them.

  • yellowdog on November 04, 2012 10:07 AM:

    @ square1
    Of course the Dems have seen this voter suppression stuff coming. They went to court in Ohio to keep early voting from being curtailed further--and they succeeded. They have put a giant spotlight on Husted. They have mobilized and put a lot of resources into educating voters and getting them ready. The challenge is that in an election, opponents can throw a stink bomb at the 11th hour--spewing out misinformation for instance--that is hard to clear up before the polls close. If Dems are nervous, it is because some tactics cannot be predicted and/or some late ugliness can have an effect even when you know it is coming.

  • g on November 04, 2012 10:11 AM:

    Brave Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, standing up against President Obama's specious use of common figures of speech!!

  • PAJane on November 04, 2012 10:20 AM:

  • Patrick Star on November 04, 2012 10:29 AM:

    I read late last night that Husted ordered the installation of some kind of software "patch" for the e-voting machines, at the last minute, of course. What's up with that? This Husted guy really is the male Katherine Harris - how the hell is he able to keep his job?

  • bdop4 on November 04, 2012 10:42 AM:

    A coupe of observations to add:

    1. The GOP would have freaked out today if Obama had mentioned what he had for breakfast.

    2. The GOP in general, and Husted in particular, needs to remember that every cell phone has a camera. Most have video cameras.

    3. If Obama can't get the affected states to develop some ad hoc provisional voting system for Sandy victims, then he deserves the results of naturally caused voter suppression. This should be a priority item on the disaster relief list and shouldn't require billions of dollars. Print out the forms, notify those affected and verify them later.

  • bdop4 on November 04, 2012 10:45 AM:

    @ Patrick Star - It's Ohio. Remember Ken Blackwell?

  • SYSPROG on November 04, 2012 10:46 AM:

    Don't worry about the 'VOTING is the best revenge' comment. YESTERDAY FOX was freaking out over the non union workers being turned away at the borders of NJ (not true)...it is a constant with them. Husted is a worrisome little gnat. Hopefully, with all the shenanigans he's pulled all SANE voters will realize the importance of voting and GETTING HIS ASS OUT OF OFFICE. We can only hope.

  • Eloise on November 04, 2012 12:13 PM:

    I live in NJ and my town has limited power but no water damage. The town has already instituted their contingency plan and I got a call that my polling place was change and will not go back to its usual location even if power is restored. It's the extensive flood damage that may be an issue. I write this as I sit on line for gas on an even day.

  • Ashbee on November 04, 2012 12:21 PM:

    I'm over you as a blogger and wish I had the ability to vote you off the proverbial island because I would.

  • Patrick Star on November 04, 2012 12:52 PM:

    Well, just got back from church - had to sit thru yet another thinly veiled don't-vote-for-obama sermon. Everyone clapped at the end. What in God's name is going on with the Catholic Church? My poor mother - Madly for Adlai, die-hard Kennedy supporter - must be spinning in her grave.

  • Dave on November 04, 2012 1:01 PM:

    A black man stands an excellent chance to be re-elected President in violation of every known precedent correlating economic numbers and electoral numbers. American politics suffers from many diseases, but a forest-for-the-trees myopia has to be among the top 3.

    I've been guilty of combing the interwebs for anything to affirm my urgent desire to see Romney's Coalition of the Cognitively Challenged play the post-election blame game. This election, one way or the other, is going to put that party's purging instincts on afterburners. If they win, it's going to be aimed at the least among us. If they lose, it's going to be intramural. The more Lugars and Collins they send to their exits, the better. I want to see that enclave turning on itself.

    Which is why I also tend to overreact to the bad news and discount the positive at the moment. But I have to admit that it's fear and that fear isn't helping to accomplish the very thing I want accomplished.

    GOTV. Send a donation. It will make you feel better.

  • LAC on November 04, 2012 2:21 PM:

    Gee square, will all your endless cynical commentary mean you will be sitting on your thumbs Tuesday making boo boo faces at the TV? Because it is just as helpful.

  • Square1 on November 04, 2012 2:56 PM:

    @LAC: Try to have a point.

  • emjayay on November 04, 2012 3:23 PM:

    Over at my other favorite blog AmericaBlog, there are lots of square1 types. Obama isn't perfect enough, screw him. Obama is weak, screw him. Obama folded on the public optionm, screw him. Vote for a third party candidate no one ever heard of instead. That'll show 'em. Don't vote for the lesser of two evils. Hope Romney wins so everyone will see how bad they are and never vote for them again (like that ever worked)....

    Somehow there hasn't been much of that sort of talk lately. Maybe reality is biting. I know I tried.

    Anyway, everyone please join Governor Chris Christie in the big love fest for Obama and vote for him on Tuesday.

    New Jersey voters: It's not exactly email voting. You print a paper ballot, mark it, then scan and email, or fax it in. Hope you have the 3 or 4 in one printer, and power too. And unmoldy paper. Also Coast Guard trucks will be subsituting for polling places that are not useable. So one way or the other voting will be available. Good luck guys.

  • Karen on November 04, 2012 3:32 PM:

    Well, the Panthers are kicking the Redskins butts at home, which is associated with the party in power losing. Be afraid, be very afraid.

  • Siriusly on November 05, 2012 2:24 AM:

    I think the worry is inevitable. I wonder if Sandy has anything to do with late GOP optimism about Pennsylvania. I'm sick with worry about voting shenanigans, Republican GOTV efforts (that go unnoticed by the press and don't require a wide net of field offices), late poll movement by down-to-the-wire undecideds, and have I mentioned shenanigans?

    I don't care what the spin will be Wednesday. I just hope it's over and the good guy won. Anyone on any side who thinks it won't be quite close is delusional. That's not to say the vote WILL be close, only that it's the most likely outcome in uncertain times.

    That said, Romney could win Ohio, Fla. AND Va. and still lose as long as Obama doesn't lose places like Colo., N.H., Wisc., Iowa, Nev., or long shots for the GOP like Mich., Penn., or Minn. I think Colorado is the one that makes me most queasy. With shenanigans alone, I can easily see Ohio, Fla., Va., and Colo. going for Romney, and then I don't think Obama has a path to victory. But on the other hand, it seems like Obama is bound to win at least one of those four.

    In Nate Silver we trust; all others pay cast votes.

  • BJ smith on November 05, 2012 1:36 PM:

    There is one word we should all wish voters never forget, that word is OBSTRUCTION! That word slowed progress more than any other & opened up the possibility for this country to revert back to the 50's. Vote the R's out, that really is sweet revenge for all the havoc they have created.

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