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November 05, 2012 5:39 PM Polling’s Big Cautious Berthas Weigh In

By Ed Kilgore

So the final tracking polls from Gallup and ABC/WaPo weighed in today, with large samples and similar internals. Gallup, after showing Mitt up four to six points among LVs in most of the period after the Denver debate, has him up just one in tracking from November 1-4 (Obama still leads among RVs by three). ABC/WaPo has Obama up three among LVs (50-47), exactly the margin they showed three weeks ago (49-46). Again, the internals of the two polls are similar, but with significant small differences (e.g., Gallup has Obama with 39% of white voters; ABC/WaPo has him at 41%).

Aside from Gallup showing a pro-Obama trend in late polling, the main reason these two polls could be significant is that both firms have exhibited a pro-Republican “house effect” in prior polling this year. We’ll see what the Nates (Silver and Cohn) have to say overnight. But at this point, the fact that the only two national polls showing Mitt ahead in the popular vote are Rasmussen and Gallup should be cold comfort to Republicans, aside from their continuing problems in the battleground states.

Ed Kilgore is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly. He is managing editor for The Democratic Strategist and a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Find him on Twitter: @ed_kilgore.

Comments

  • c u n d gulag on November 05, 2012 6:10 PM:

    I have an 84 year-old, hard-core Republican neighbor who I drive around and do errands for.

    A few days ago, he told me that Rasmussen had Romney a few point ahead.
    I laughed at him, gently, and told him that Ras was the worst polling outfit for objectivity.
    I told him, that by the time Election Day came, they'd call the race, "Even."
    He told me Ras was very accurate, and that he'd stand by their polling.

    Today, I told him that Romney is SCREWED, because Ras had the race tied, as I predicted.

    Typically, even though he hasn't had Cable TV for several months, he still held to his FUX Noise talking points.
    I laughed, again, gently, and told him I'd call him after Obama's victory tomorrow.

  • Helen Bedd on November 05, 2012 6:35 PM:

    "Gallup has Obama with 39% of white voters; ABC/WaPo has him at 41%"

    IF these numbers hold up, Obama wins the popular vote.

  • Joe Friday on November 05, 2012 8:21 PM:

    * FLORIDA - NBC/WSJ/MARIST POLL

    49% - Obama

    47% - Romney


    * WISCONSIN - NBC/WSJ/MARIST POLL

    49% - Obama

    46% - Romney


    * IOWA - DES MOINES REGISTER POLL

    47% - Obama

    42% - Romney


    * COLORADO - CNN/ORC POLL

    50% - Obama

    48% - Romney


    VIRGINIA - NBC/WSJ/MARIST POLL

    48% - Obama

    47% - Romney

    ~

    Pennsylvania MY ASS.

  • Ron Byers on November 05, 2012 9:50 PM:

    National polls are irrelevant. The only polls that matter are state polls.

  • Ron Byers on November 05, 2012 9:50 PM:

    National polls are irrelevant. The only polls that matter are state polls.

  • dweb on November 06, 2012 5:54 AM:

    Not cold comfort....life jacket. Visit Redstate.com and you will find a wall of posts from folks (including Erik son of Erick their noble leader) predicting Romney wins...and many of them saying landslide. Polls like these are part of their evidence plus Obama sucks.

    Hell even the supposedly bright Wall Street folks on CNBC have been getting the vapors talking about the incredible good-time economic explosion that will occur once Mittster gets elected.

    My dial Wed. is going to be set to Rush. THAT is going to be fun to listen to.

  • Hue and Cry on November 06, 2012 4:44 PM:

    Pennsytuckey my ass too, Joe Friday!
    My best beer drinking friend has been worried about me
    all fall driving with stickers "Obama-Biden" and "Save Medicare" on my back window.
    He was right. The tea partiers could be insane by now.
    A friend of ours is running as the independent for a congressional seat--the league of women voters did not even have him listed as a candidate on their online ballot.
    I was absolutely bullied at the polls. A girl.
    I am very suspicious in Pennsyvania.