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August 30, 2013 1:15 PM Quinn’s Collapse

By Ed Kilgore

It’s increasingly likely that the last good day for Christine Quinn’s mayoral campaign was Monday, when she received the last of her endorsements from New York’s “big three” daily newspapers. A Quinnipiac poll on Wednesday showed her falling far behind Bill de Blasio and getting trounced in any plausible runoff. Now comes a New York Times/Siena poll showing her dropping into third place and suffering a calamitous decline in favorability.

Like the Q-poll, the new survey shows Bill de Blasio surging into a lead, albeit with 32%, which is a ways from the 40% needed to avoid a runoff. But Quinn’s odds of making or surviving a runoff are now unmistakably fading. While her viable rivals are enjoying strong favorable/unfavorable ratios (de Blasio at 53/16 and Bill Thompson at 53/16) among likely primary voters, Quinn is now underwater at 39/45. She’s doing a little bit better than Anthony Weiner (24/66), but that’s not saying much. And she has little “cushion” for improvement, since only 15% of voters say they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion (25% of respondents don’t know much about de Blasio, and 30% say the same about Thompson).

Primaries are difficult to poll or predict, but it’s beginning to look like either a de Blasio/Thompson runoff or a de Blasio win outright. Best I can tell, Quinn’s close identification with Michael Bloomberg, for which she has been pounded by her opponents, has been her achilles heel. But for whatever reason, too many New York Democrats just don’t like her at precisely the wrong time in her political career.

Ed Kilgore is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly. He is managing editor for The Democratic Strategist and a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Find him on Twitter: @ed_kilgore.

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