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The Republican debt-ceiling strategy hasn’t been subtle: GOP officials are threatening to cause a recession, on purpose, unless Democrats give them the spending cuts they want. It’s Hostage Taking 101.
The trick has been identifying the ransom. Republicans have said they expect “something big” in exchange for doing what they obviously have to do anyway, but they’ve been vague about the details. “Meet our demands or we’ll kill the hostage.” What are your demands? “We’re not sure; why don’t you offer something and we’ll get back to you.”
In recent weeks, the details have gotten a little clearer, with House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) saying he expects $2 trillion in cuts or he’ll deliberately cause an economic catastrophe. But even that’s too vague — no one knows where the $2 trillion should come from or over how long.
Today, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) went much further in clarifying what’s on the ransom note.
In a Capitol briefing with reporters Friday, McConnell declared affirmatively that unspecified Medicare cuts are on the table in bipartisan debt limit negotiations, led by Vice President Joe Biden, and he expects they’ll be part of the final deal. But in response to a question from TPM, he went further than he has in the past in laying down a marker on that issue. Medicare cuts must be part of that deal to get his support, he says — even if negotiators manage to find trillions of dollars in savings elsewhere, even if his other priorities are met.
“To get my vote, for me, it’s going to take short term [cuts, via spending caps]… Both medium and long-term, entitlements.,” McConnell said. “Medicare will be part of the solution.”
To clarify, I asked “[I]f [the Biden group] comes up with big cuts, trillions of dollars worth of cuts, but without substantially addressing Medicare, it won’t get your vote?”
“Correct,” McConnell said.
This is no small admission. The Senate’s leading Republican is saying, publicly and on the record, that without Medicare cuts, he’ll try to create an economic calamity on purpose.
The obvious question, at this point, is what kind of cuts McConnell has in mind, and whether (and how much) it would affect benefits for the elderly. Maybe the Senate Minority Leader doesn’t have the policy chops to talk about his ideas for reductions in any depth, or maybe he’s just saving it for the negotiating table.
Either way, it’s a fairly big deal. In fact, now that McConnell has admitted it, Democrats should probably let the public know. The talking point isn’t complicated: Senate Republicans will create a recession unless Democrats agree to Medicare cuts.
Of course, the talking point will ineffective if Dems decide to go along with McConnell’s hostage strategy and pay the ransom.
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exlitigator on May 27, 2011 1:34 PM:
We should stop talking bout the debt ceilings and talk about government shutdowns. i.e Republicans will stop payment on youe social security checks unless we kill Medicare.
brent on May 27, 2011 1:41 PM:
Yeah, I don't buy it. Whatever McConnell says, we know who pulls his strings. Big business in this country is not going to let the Republicans deliberately destroy the economy. Dems, I have to believe, are well aware of this, so who is this bluff supposed to fool exactly?
zeitgeist on May 27, 2011 1:48 PM:
Biden should declare that hostage negotiations are not good-faith negotiations, and that McConnell has now shown he is not truly negotiating in any event because he has drawn bright lines that preclude true bargaining.
Then the Dems should get the hell out before the public gets confused about whose fingerprints are on cuts in Medicare. (And before any of them go weak in the knees and actually put their fingerprints on cuts in Medicare!)
This is not the moment to throw the sinking R's a lifeline. Demand a clean bill and an up-or-down vote on whether to collapse the economy and whether to ruin America's reputation as someone who can be trusted and who makes good on promises.
Offer (very publicly) to restart the Biden led talks once the hostage has been released and the economy is safe from being shot.
If we have any messaging skills at all (and I know that is a very, very dicey assumption) we should be able to win the public on that one pretty easily.
neil b on May 27, 2011 1:49 PM:
Interesting, they're still wild enough to put Medi*care* in the cross hairs. I heard they were dialing down to Medicaid (see, mostly "wrong people" getting the help) but I guess the Koch-fueled crazy wing keeps swinging for the fences and the defenestration.
Doctor Whom on May 27, 2011 1:50 PM:
Well, sure. I mean, even Ryan has admitted that all of this talk of deficits and budgets is bascially nothing more than pretext, and that their real goal is to destroy the welfare state.
Archon on May 27, 2011 1:56 PM:
Call me an optimist, but I think this is actually political posturing for the GOP to save face on a deal. I wouldn't be surprised to see some superficial cuts on medicare on a grand bargain just so Democrats can't pound Ryan's plan over their head in 2012.
I'm sure McConnell knows a grand bargain essientially guarentees Obama's re-election, but at this point they have no choice because Ryan's plan exposes the GOP to a potential rout.
burro on May 27, 2011 1:56 PM:
No negotiating with terrorists. The country is in jeopardy from the actions of these petulant, flailing, nihilistic fools.
It's insane to think that Dems are going to somehow help the r's save face. But I bet they do. McConnell is vile, and Reid is hopeless.
st john on May 27, 2011 1:58 PM:
Ed Schultz gets suspended without pay for calling a slut a slut and McConnell can literally hold the country and possibly the world hostage, and he is allowed to walk around free.
Steve, will you call your contacts in the MSM and tell them you will slander them if they don't tell the truth? I thought so!
All day long I read comments on this site and your posts, and I hear nothing about how you have actually spoken with someone in power and gotten a response. Spitting into the wind does nothing but get us wet. I sign petitions and occasionally write letters and emails, but my voice is not heard, based on results. I expect, which is not really taking responsibility, that bloggers with a large voice like you and Arianna Huffington and others have the clout and the contacts to speak truth to power. Apparently I am mistaken.
I am probably way off base with this post, but I am speaking what I am thinking.
Any response?
Thrax on May 27, 2011 1:58 PM:
Reid should respond: bring up a bill in the Senate that raises the debt ceiling and cuts Medicare, and I'll give it a vote. Let the House vote on the same bill. After NY-26, I'm guessing it doesn't get a lot of takers. That should limit the effectiveness of McConnell's demand.
thebewilderness on May 27, 2011 1:59 PM:
Republicans always kill the hostages whether you pay the ransom or not.
beejeez on May 27, 2011 2:02 PM:
Can somebody give me one good reason the Democrats should give more than one inch on this stuff? One inch, I get. You want to show you're a good sport. More than that is shooting yourself in the foot and then shooting yourself in the other foot.
John B. on May 27, 2011 2:06 PM:
Brent -- The bluff is intended to fool Democrats into joining hand-in-hand with Republicans to get tagged with "cutting Medicare" -- and thus enabling Ryan Republicans to neutralize the Medicare issue for the 2012 elections -- either by tarring both parties with the same brush or by so discouraging Democratic voters that their turn-out will stink.
A lot of 2008 voters for Obama have been discouraged by the president's wholesale embrace of so many Bush era policies and practices. The G.O.P.'s assault on Medicare gave them hope. If Biden and the Senate Democrats fall for McConnell's bluff then you can kiss a second term for Obama good-bye.
I am sorry to say I foresee the Democrats blinking first. McConnell very well may think he really would send the Earth's economy over the edge if he doesn't get his way. And he just might do it -- for a day or two -- when the time comes. Senate Democrats are on the whole too smart to do such a thing themselves -- say, by threatening no debt increase unless Republicans agreed to tax the rich. So when they see McConnell on the threshold of doing exactly that, they will conclude he's not only stupid but crazy enough to do it, and the Dems will fold.
Be clear on one thing: the price Democrats will pay for caving in is huge. They will become a minority party never again to hold the White House or Congress.
jjm on May 27, 2011 2:08 PM:
He's just demanding that the Democrats make even one cut to Medicare so the then Republicans can once again use it repeatedly to scare Americans once again. When the ACA ripped half a million out in subsidies to insurance companies and against fraud Republicans used it mercilessly to claim Democrats 'cut Medicare.' And they won the House.
But they tipped their hand way too soon, and Americans are not going to buy the baloney they are selling, not to mention that their ideas are way past their 'sell by date'.
Redshift on May 27, 2011 2:09 PM:
neil b: Interesting, they're still wild enough to put Medi*care* in the cross hairs.
I think you're misinterpreting it. The point of this isn't to have Republicans vote to cut Medicare again, it's to force Democrats to vote to cut Medicare in order to de-fang their most potent attack for 2012.
All this shows is that for all the brave talk about how NY-26 wasn't about Medicare, and Rove and Ryan's blather about how they just need to explain it better, they actually do know they screwed themselves.
Brenna on May 27, 2011 2:26 PM:
On Rachel Maddow's show last night, she discussed how McConnell warned Boehner not to bring up a kill medicare vote. He's taking charge now and trying to rectify the damage of that vote.
If dems agree to cut medicare, then what are they good for?
Eli Rabett on May 27, 2011 2:29 PM:
Sell all the gold in Fort Knox first and then sell Fort Knox. That should get McConnell's attention
toowearyforoutrage on May 27, 2011 2:36 PM:
This can't be true!
NewsMax tells me conservatives want to restore the 500 billion that the heartless, cruel, unfeeling President Obama cut from Medicare.
http://www.newsmax.com/surveys/Repeal-Obamacare/Repeal-Obama/id/4/kw/America/?promo_code=B683-1
I sh*t you not.
Anonymous on May 27, 2011 3:02 PM:
"Of course, the talking point will ineffective if Dems decide to go along with McConnell’s hostage strategy and pay the ransom."
Care to bet that BHO and most Dems cave in to Repub demands? Betting "yes" on caving in has been the winning ticket for some 15/18 major issues over the last two years. Most BHO supporters now fit Einstein's definition of insanity: keep re-running the same experiment in the hope that NEXT time you'll get a different answer. Maybe BHO will start behaving like he actually has some Progressive ideology outside of a few social issues.
I suggest that About the only remaining (small) hope for Progressive economic ploices in the future is a failed debt raising bill--- and that the voting public appropriately blames BHO and the Repubs. The Repub crazies will still have lots of candidates to choose from in 2012. So far, no Democrat is talking about running in 2012. Maybe a debt crisis will produce a democratic challenger to Ronald R Obama. I see nothing else that might do so.
majun on May 27, 2011 3:04 PM:
A couple of observations:
House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) saying he expects $2 trillion in cuts or he’ll deliberately cause an economic catastrophe.
Two trillion in cuts will BE an economic catastrophe. So the ransom is, the GOP wants to precipitate an economic catastrophe. PERIOD. FULL STOP!!!
The obvious question, at this point, is what kind of cuts McConnell has in mind,
Two things wrong with that statement, first is that you assume McConnell has a mind rather than just brain stem programmed to do exactly the opposite of what he perceives Democrats doing. Next, is the implication that McConnell's ransom is actually about Medicare. It is about damage control, that's all. If the GOP cannot get Democrats to take a vote that can be characterized as destroying Medicare, they are cooked gooses (geece?) come November 2012. Mayan predications notwithstanding. McConnell, and I would guess all other Republicans, are desperate to come to some kind of a deal on Medicare now to take it out of the reach of Democrats as a wedge issue in the coming election. This is just a first shot across the bow.
TCinLA on May 27, 2011 3:22 PM:
McConnell stated that this had to be an agreement by both parties, because the Republicans know that if they are the only ones who have voted to kill or otherwise harm Medicare, they will be toast in 2012. This hostage taking attempt by McConnell is evidence of how scared they are. The Editor's comment at TPM on this news was titled "A Cornered Animal Is A Dangerous Animal," and that is exactly what is going on here.
The Democrats have got to draw the line in the sand here and say "No!" and keep saying "No!" and let the Republicans go stare over the precipice.
I for one think that the Republicans' bosses on Wall Street will call them in and let them have it the way Howard Beale got lectured in "Network" about fucking with the fundamental building blocks of the universe.
But even if they don't, even if there is a default, the Democrats have to go the distance. If they cave in on this, then representative government is effectively over in this country and the Republicans will have staged a successful coup d'etat and destroyed the government. There will be NO END to what they will attempt if they are allowed to get away with this.
The Republicans have got to be defeated on this, or our constitutional republic is over. It's that simple.
I have written both my Senators to this point, and I suggest everyone else here who is represented by a Democratic Senator do the same thing. This is now the biggest constitutional crisis since the Civil War.
Stephen Stralka on May 27, 2011 3:39 PM:
I think the Democrats should propose cutting all Medicare and Social Security payments to districts with Republican Representatives. If people complain, tell them this is what they voted for. As Bill Lockyer put it, "The folks that want less government get less government."
bearsense on May 27, 2011 3:57 PM:
Isn't there a government policy that sez "we don't negotiate with terrorists?"
Joe Friday on May 27, 2011 4:06 PM:
When is the White House finally going to admit out loud that this is not about deficit reduction for the Republicans ? This is about what it has always been about for the American RightWing, eliminating Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Unemployment Insurance, the Federal Minimum Wage, and anything else that benefits Americans who are not their Rich & Corporate masters.
GenJones on May 27, 2011 4:42 PM:
@TCinLA
You have positively nailed this. I have written to both my Senators (DE), and to Biden's Middle Class Task force, with a very simple message:
The United States of America does not negotiate with terrorists, foreign or domestic.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/strongmiddleclass
Maine Independent on May 27, 2011 7:45 PM:
Well this is certainly going to be a good time for the Democrats to show if there is any spine there or not, by standing up against this thuggery. Which is why I call the disloyal opposition "Rethugs". I am not hopeful.
Xiang Meng on May 27, 2011 7:57 PM:
Perhaps the Republicans and their primary voters will make crashing the debt ceiling a litmus-test issue too, as they tried to do in the spring 2011 budget talks: “shut down the government!” Mitch McConnell said he will block a rise in the debt ceiling, and in so doing crash the economy, unless there are some Medicare cuts, thus ensuring that the Republicans will get credit for destroying either the U.S. economy or Medicare, or possibly both. Other Republicans are competing to show how rigid they can be: McConnell and Boehner are insisting that canceling the tax cut for the rich must be off the table, which is particularly counter-intuitive right now since the New York special election in a very red district was won by a Democrat who opposes tax breaks for the rich; Romney and Pawlenty insisted that cutting the size of the defense budget must also be off the table, which means that Pawlenty would rather cut Social Security than the defense budget. Republicans may be thinking they have nothing to lose: if they're doomed to be crushed by Obama and the Medicare issue in 2012, why not crapshoot by wrecking the entire economy and hoping to deflect the blame?
The debt ceiling is going to make Boehner’s summer unpleasant. Boehner is under pressure from the young radicals who are growing in numbers and strength; they think Boehner is an cranky, abrasive, old-school dealmaker, and are wary of Boehner’s compromises. They began to rebel when Boehner backed down during the budget fight, and Cantor is already distancing himself from Boehner, claiming his heart wasn’t really in Boehner’s budget deal. So Boehner will not go too far to the left in the next budget fight – the young guns will depose him if he does. That split is also reflected outside Washington: corporate America and Wall Street are terrified of the prospect of a default, but the tea party folks love it.
http://xiangmenglantern.blogspot.com/2011/05/budget-and-health-issues.html
Jay Ackroyd on May 27, 2011 8:43 PM:
Steve--
Remember "Make me do it."? People referred to a, perhaps true, story about FDR asking his liberal wing to create pressure so that he could do what he wanted to do anyway.
And remember when people told this story wrt Obama?
What they didn't get is he was saying it to the GOP, not to the dirty hippies.
Doug on May 27, 2011 10:22 PM:
As already pointed out in many posts, this is all about the results from NY-26. The Republicans HAVE to make any "cutting" of Medicare "bipartisan" or they won't even hold the southern states. Even if the cuts would merely trim waste and slow cost increases, such an action would change 2012 from a certain Republican disaster to merely a possible, or probable, defeat.
Anonymous @ 3:02 PM, if you really believe your last paragraph, I suggest a trip to the library. There are many excellent, well-written histories about the elections of 1892, 1896, 1904, 1912, 1920, 1932, 1936, 1940, 1948, 1960, 1968, and 1972, among others.
William Jennings Bryan (1892/96) certainly wasn't a "progressive". Nor was Woodrow Wilson. FDR shunned the term "progressive", although he supported SOME programs that progressives wanted. Ditto for Mr. Truman in 1948. JFK was certainly no progressive, even though he received the support of many. Adlai Stevenson was their candidate in 1960. Hubert Humphrey (1968) was probably the closest there ever has been to an out and out progressive to run on a major party ticket, but because he refused to disavow all of LBJ's Vietnam policies, the "progressives" in 1968 opposed him; so we got Nixon instead. That right there should tell you something about the wisdom of indulging in your political "hopes".
If you truly want the Federal government to enact more "progressive" policies, I would suggest you begin by doing all you can to elect progressive Senators and Representatives; start with your state legislature and work upwards.
Good luck (really)!
matt on May 28, 2011 12:43 AM:
Of course the Dems will go along with it. They are spineless cunts that answer to the very same benefactors.
DINO on May 28, 2011 3:26 AM:
You can delete this comment, block me, whatever. But I hope that every last republican in Congress gets cancer and dies. Soon.
Those people are subhuman garbage not worth the dirt to bury them under.
Anonymous on May 29, 2011 1:18 AM:
End Medicare or . . . . . We Shoot the Dog!